8 - 14 February 2001
Issue No.520
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 8 - 14 February 2001 Issue No.520 |
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Dangerous currents
Ten years ago, in the context of the hype surrounding a "New World Order" the Middle East was promised a more stable future. According to proponents of this view, the military threat posed by Iraq had been contained by the Gulf War and subsequent UN sanctions, while the Madrid Peace Conference established the groundwork for a settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
But today stability in the Middle East seems as precarious as ever as the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate and the occupied territories are wracked by violence. Peace seems elusive while Iraq, devastated by war and10 years of brutal sanctions, continues to be portrayed as a threat.
Although these two issues were linked in 1991 by UN Security Council Resolution 687, which stipulates that divesting Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction is a step on the road to making the Middle East a zone free of such weapons, this latter goal has yet to be addressed.
Since 1991 the peace process and the Iraq files have been moving parallel to each other, although neither has had an obvious direct baring on the other. Today, however, the relation between the two issues has become much clearer.
The Iraqi file has been "moving" in its own right as international and regional support mounts for lifting the crippling sanctions imposed on Baghdad.
And the peace process, which has recently seemed to be moving backwards, appears poised for additional blows following the election of Israeli hard-liner Ariel Sharon to the office of prime minister.
The view from Cairo, as well as from several other Arab capitals, is that the Arab people will not accept having to deal with both Sharon's potentially extremist policies and the possibility that the US will maintain its harsh policy towards Iraq.
Cairo believes that despite expectations that a Republican US administration would oppose removing sanctions imposed on Iraq, that Washington would harm its image -- and that of its allies -- if it insists on being tough on Iraq but not on Israeli violations of Palestinian rights.
So with a new Israeli prime minister, a new US president and an imminent Arab summit -- scheduled for late March in Amman -- Egypt's interest in establishing regional security may be well-served by pushing for a reassessment of regional policies on Iraq and the peace process.
These matters have been subject to much, if not most, of the attention of Egyptian diplomats over the past few weeks.
Yesterday President Hosni Mubarak arrived in Kuwait for talks on these issues, having travelled to Riyadh earlier this month to discuss the same files with top Saudi officials. The same issue was treated in meetings with a top Iraqi official who visited Cairo last month.
"What Egypt is trying to do is very obvious: make sure that the situation does not get out of hand," commented an Egyptian diplomatic source. He added, "If Israel takes additional heavy-handed measures against Palestinians and if, parallel to these, the humanitarian situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate with no real response from the international community, then the Middle East will be in store for some very difficult times."
"Sharon will likely revive the fuss about the US application of double standards in the Middle East: it tolerates Israeli atrocities and makes up excuses to attack Iraq," said an Egyptian diplomat.
Thus Egypt's theory about how to avoid an explosion of regional tensions requires alleviation of pressures on Iraq and constraining Israel from taking uncalculated steps regarding Arab-Israeli relations.
During the past few weeks top Egyptian officials conveyed this message to some of the key players in Middle East politics. While the response has not always been overwhelmingly favourable, it has not been extremely negative either.
Western officials, particularly in Washington, are saying that Egypt need not be so quick to presume the worst about Sharon. As prime minister, say the Western officials, Sharon's attitude may differ from those of other Likud leaders. And on Iraq, the West is still apprehensive.
But it is not alone in this regard, as Kuwait and Riyadh also believe that it is still too early to consider letting up on the Iraqi regime.
Egypt, at the highest level, has been advocating open-mindedness towards Iraq. "We are not dealing with the issues of the Security Council such as weapons inspection. What we are trying to do is to make sure that there is substantial consensus among Arabs about the need to open the door to welcome Iraq back into the fold," said an Egyptian official. He added that unity in the Arab world is particularly important in the face of a potentially erratic Israel.
However, one Cairo-based Kuwaiti diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly that "during the past few weeks we have heard enough threats from Baghdad about its intention to reoccupy Kuwait. This is not a regime with which one opens a dialogue for peace."
Marking the 10th anniversary of the Gulf War, some Iraqi officials, including the powerful son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, have made statements that entailed threats to Kuwait's territorial integrity.
"The Saudis are more or less of the same opinion. They are not very comfortable about what Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has in mind for them," commented an Egyptian source.
So while Arab countries have a clear vision about the support they need to offer the Palestinians, or even the Syrians and Lebanese, should Israel make a military move, inter-Arab consensus has yet to be reached on a plan of action regarding Iraq. President Hosni Mubarak is keeping in touch with several Arab and world leaders on this matter.
During the meeting of some Arab foreign ministers next Saturday to discuss the agenda for the next Arab summit, Iraq is bound to be a major topic. Scheduled to take place in the Jordanian capital Amman, the meeting will see the participation of Foreign Minister Amr Moussa and Secretary-General of the Arab League Essmat Abdel-Meguid.
"It is true that the last Arab summit was dedicated to the peace process, but the next summit will not be the 'Iraq Summit' as some are suggesting," commented an Arab diplomatic source. He added that although Iraq will be discussed, current differences in the Arab world on the Gulf country do not bode well for major breakthroughs. Nonetheless, he said, this does not preclude the possibility that participants might agree on a show of goodwill towards Iraq.
The nature and scope of such a goodwill gesture is likely to be determined by two factors: how aggressive the new Israeli prime minister's stand will be towards Arabs and how open-minded the new US administration will be on the issue of Iraq.
But even the most optimistic diplomatic quarters do not expect a move towards lifting the sanctions in the near future.
As one diplomat put it: "It is highly unlikely that the US will want to let Iraq out of its clutches before a general peace settlement is reached for the Arab-Israeli conflict."
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