15 - 21 February 2001
Issue No.521
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 15 - 21 February 2001 Issue No.521 |
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Full circle
Nobody wants to admit that the seven years spent on peace negotiations have come to nought, or that the question of peaceful resolution with Israel is back to square one. After Sharon announced that he would not take Barak's suggestions as the basis for negotiations, the new American president in turn consigned Clinton's "ideas" to the rubbish bin. All that is left is to search for new interpretations of UN Resolution 242 and other relevant decisions; the Arabs will likewise review the normalisation procedures undertaken during the preceding period.
Israel's position under Sharon is clear, and US policy will no doubt contrive to adjust to it. As for the Arab stance, it seems to have grown vague in light of the new variables; that would explain its inability to confront the extremist policies Sharon aims to implement.
Sharon has left no room for misinterpretation. He requires a period of quiet, and an end to violence, until he has formed his government. He will not resume negotiations on Jerusalem, settlements, or the right of return. He will not accept the solutions approved by Barak. Strangely, everybody is helping him realise his goals. President Bush is calling on Arafat to contain the situation and to give Sharon time. The European countries are putting pressure on Arafat so that he, in turn, will put pressure on the Intifada. Arafat himself has declared that he is ready to give Sharon a chance.
Should the US abandon its role in the peace process, assume direct responsibility for facilitating negotiations between Sharon and the Palestinian or the Syrian side, let the concerned parties sort out their troubles for themselves, or incorporate the Palestinian question into the framework of a broader strategy for dealing with other issues -- Iraq and Gulf security topping the bill? Nothing seems sure. The Bush administration is not as willing to be immersed in the peace process as the Clinton administration was. It continues to approach the region through the "crackdown on Iraq" gate. The primary goal of US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the region towards the end of the month is best understood in the context of the anniversary of the Gulf War. The issue of peace occupies second place.
The Arabs are trying to convince themselves they have nothing to fear from Sharon, but they should be concerned about the conflict of priorities in the new US administration, which has hitherto recognised only two issues in the Middle East: Iraq and Libya. It may take Bush several months to get his bearings on Israel. By then, the nascent Middle East working group will have convinced him that conditions are not what they were 10 years ago, and that America will not manage to revive the alliance against Iraq.
Perhaps the Arab summit in Amman should seek to emphasise this: an alliance with America against an Arab country is a mistake not to be repeated, and that the real threat to peace in the region comes from Israel, particularly under a terrorist leadership with a long record of working against peace, stability and security.
The current situation could be a temporary break in which each side regroups and discovers what the others are thinking. Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the whole affair is the fact that the Arabs remain where they were while all else changes around them. This means that time is not on our side.
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