22 - 28 February 2001
Issue No.522
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 22 - 28 February 2001 Issue No.522 |
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'In a league of his own'
US President George W Bush, who has travelled overseas only five times in his adult life, flexed his muscles last week, ordering air strikes at command and control posts outside Baghdad last Friday. While observers expected the Bush administration to target Iraq sooner or later, both to reassert its military prowess in the region and to indicate its disapproval of recent moves towards re-integrating Iraq into the world community, they did not think the strikes would be its immediate reaction.
President Hosni Mubarak articulated the Egyptian government's surprise at the air raids when confessing that he learned of them from the media. "I don't have a clear picture about the strikes yet. What I know is based on television reports," he told Italian newspaper La Repubblica hours after the bombings.
Cairo was kept in the dark, as were many other US allies in the region and around the world. "The Egyptian government was not informed of this," said Foreign Minister Amr Moussa. "It was a surprise for everyone and we do not accept it." Cairo has since informed Washington that it firmly objects to the unannounced air attacks, adding that the timing was miscalculated. Egypt has asked the US for a justification for the strikes.
US allies resent the surprise attack all the more because, only hours before the strike command was issued last Thursday, Secretary of State Colin Powell made statements at the UN that aimed to placate allies in the region. He paid lip service to "finding ways to [ensure] that there are no weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq, and at the same time "do[ing] it in a way which does not hurt the Iraqi people." Two Iraqi civilians were killed and 20 injured in Friday's attack, but the strikes brought the US no closer to inspecting Saddam Hussein's suspected stash of weapons and the Iraqi leader's grip on power remains unshaken.
The Bush administration's top foreign policy aides are veterans of Bush senior's administration, which launched the 1991 Gulf War to expel Iraq from Kuwait, and it appears that Bush and his team are eager to clear up some "unfinished business" a decade later. Secretary Powell, during his upcoming visit to the region, will have to explain Bush's "cowboy policies", as some have termed it. On his first tour abroad since his swearing-in, Powell, who was chairman of the joint chiefs of staff at the time of the Gulf War, will stop in Brussels for talks with EU officials before visiting Cairo, Riyadh, Kuwait, Amman, the Palestinian territories and Tel Aviv.
Washington's attempt to reinforce the unravelling UN sanctions against Iraq will require European and Arab support. In this sense, the strikes may backfire. By hitting Iraq, the US has alienated itself from three of its peers in the Security Council -- France, China and Russia -- and upset Arab regimes. Governments all over the world, led by Egypt and other Arab countries, criticised the strikes as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were two exceptions, supporting the attacks because they believe that Iraq continues to pose a threat to their national security.
Calculating the cost-benefit of a possible course of action, Egypt will proceed with "extreme caution", as one diplomat put it. It does not want to antagonise the US, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, but at the same time intends to clearly and directly state its objections to the raids and question their logic. The Egyptian government is also aware of the necessity of striking a balance in its reaction so as to accommodate the anger of Egyptians against the latest attack on Iraq.
Preceding Powell's talks in Cairo, Egyptian officials have kept their statements brief. Moussa described the strikes as a "serious negative step which is unjustified", while Mubarak elaborated that Saddam Hussein does not pose a threat to the world: "Iraq is not a superpower, nor does it possess intercontinental missiles." He told La Repubblica that air raids would achieve nothing but complicate matters further, as there were civilian casualties. "This cannot continue endlessly," he said. "A solution must be found under the umbrella of the UN." Mubarak noted that resolving the issue of Iraq requires "a comprehensive vision" and that all parties could begin by observing Security Council resolutions.
Many in the Arab world interpreted the air raids as an attempt to distract attention away from Palestinian deaths in the occupied territories, failed peace talks and the election of hardline Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Cairo, however, does not link the strikes with events in Palestine, saying that Sharon has yet to form a government or make any steps in the peace process.
On the other hand, on Monday the US sent a second message to Middle Eastern countries by launching joint military exercises with Israel in the Negev Desert near the border with Egypt. Egyptian sources say that the military manoeuvres -- unscheduled and intended to reassure Israel of US support and protection -- amount to sabre-rattling at other states in the region.
Meanwhile, the new administration in Washington has signalled that American involvement in the peace process will be significantly less than that of the Clinton government. Already, the post of special envoy to the Middle East, previously occupied by Dennis Ross, has been cancelled, and Powell has stated that the negotiating parties are capable of reaching an agreement directly between themselves. Mubarak stated this week that Bush was "unlikely to commit himself, as Clinton did, to sitting with the concerned parties to referee between them."
Mubarak went on to describe the Palestinians' situation as "desperate", suggesting that they will not lay down their stones unless the peace process improves their lives. According to diplomatic sources, the violence will continue as long as Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are suspended, and without progress towards a settlement, the new Israeli government will not last long.
In anticipation of the formation of a Sharon government and the unveiling of the new Israeli prime minister's stance in the peace process, Cairo has adopted a "wait and see" policy. Cairo is bracing itself, however, for a rise in tensions and further deterioration of the peace process under Sharon's leadership. Mubarak said this week that Sharon "gives the impression he does not want peace, that he is a man of violence, but we can't judge matters at this point in time."
While Cairo does not expect much good from Sharon, it continues to hope for the best. "After all, we signed peace with [Menachim] Begin, who was a hawk," noted Mubarak, in reference to Egypt's peace treaty with Israel's Likud government in 1979.
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