22 - 28 February 2001
Issue No.522
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 22 - 28 February 2001 Issue No.522 |
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A strategy to confront Sharon
With Ariel Sharon's ascension to power in Israel, the Arabs' worst nightmare has come true. But while in a real nightmare they would have no choice but to wait for morning to come and banish the bogeyman, the same does not apply in the present situation. Here the Arabs need not stand passively by as events run their predetermined course, but can act assertively to influence the situation. Of course, it would be difficult to actually oust Sharon as prime minister, especially given the unprecedented majority (62 per cent) of Israeli electors who voted him into power, but much can be done to erode his support base and turn that majority into a minority.
Sharon's landslide victory at the polls reflected the frustration many Israelis felt at Barak's failure to reach a settlement with the Palestinians, at the resulting backlash in the peace process and the upsurge of the Intifada, and their belief that an iron fist was necessary to restore order and security. Thus any attempt to whittle away at the support Sharon now enjoys inside Israel must be based on a strategy which aims ultimately to overcome the present setback in the peace process and which should operate on several fronts simultaneously.
To begin with, there is the internal Israeli political front, which has never been less cohesive. Sharon's attempts to forge a broad-based national unity government that would include seven cabinet ministers from the Labour Party, notably Barak as defence minister and Shimon Peres as foreign minister, are running into innumerable difficulties. Opposition to the tentative deal he reached with Barak -- who has drawn ridicule for reversing his announcement on the night of his defeat that he would step down as party leader and leave politics for a while -- has grown to encompass some of the former prime ministers' closest allies, including outgoing Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, who has turned down Sharon's offer of a post in the new government.
The precariousness of the Sharon coalition strategy and the sharply divergent views within the Israeli ruling establishment on the future of peace with the Palestinians create conditions that are favourable to a repeat performance of the Oslo scenario, not in terms of substance but in its procedural aspects. Without going into the merits or defects of the accords, the fact is that Oslo set a precedent by proving that when official negotiations stall, parallel negotiations conducted secretly at an unofficial level can produce results. It is much easier to envisage such a scenario now than it was at the time, when any contact with the PLO was criminalised in Israel. Despite these constraints, a framework agreement for a solution of the Palestinian problem was unofficially worked out between Yossi Beilin and Abu Mazen. With tensions inside the Labour Party reaching unprecedented heights, the climate is favourable for similar endeavours, which would put pressure on the official negotiators and expose Sharon every time he disregards international law as the framework for peace. It might be useful in this connection for the Palestinians to seriously consider forging a coalition of their own between the various trends and movements within their ranks.
There is also the precedent introduced by Clinton when he came forward with a package of "ideas" to solve the Palestinian problem, which he presented as his own proposals and not as the official ideas of the American president. Until then, the United States, as sponsor of the peace process, had stuck to the principle that a mediator's role should be confined to facilitating the task of the negotiating parties and not extend to presenting ideas of his own. However, when Clinton's last-ditch effort to broker a framework agreement between the parties in Camp David ended in failure, he decided to depart from this principle and come forward with ideas of his own. Although the ideas were not unconditionally accepted by either side, the fact that both agreed to consider them has created a precedent that could eventually be repeated. For example, at its forthcoming summit in March, the Arab League could come forward with ideas, formulated in consultation with the Palestinian Authority, that constitute the basis of the Arab peace project. Such an initiative would test Sharon's intentions and force him to expose his hand: either he is willing to play by the rules of international legality or he is not interested in reaching a settlement of the conflict in the first place.
Finally, we should also consider the idea of creating an international committee that would include not only Arab, but also international and even Israeli personalities, to demand the indictment of Sharon as a war criminal whose crimes against humanity are a matter of public record. Putting Sharon on trial is necessary not only to establish his responsibility in the Kybia massacre, followed a few years later by the Sabra and Shatila massacres, but also as a preemptive measure against similar atrocities in future. Already, the Israeli authorities are stepping up the tempo of political assassinations directed against Palestinian activists accused of bolstering the Intifada, a policy Sharon is likely to escalate still further. If indicted, Sharon would be joining a gallery of controversial international figures such as Pinochet in Chile, Milosevic in Serbia, Karagic in Bosnia and the perpetrators of the massacres in Rwanda and Burundi.
The present situation requires action on all fronts. The Israeli national unity coalition must be confronted with a strategy aimed at boosting the pan-Arab character of the Arab League. Amr Moussa has been nominated to undertake this arduous task. Much will depend on his efforts to face the challenge of Israel's new strategy now that Sharon is Israel's top decision-maker.
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