1 - 7 March 2001
Issue No.523
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 1 - 7 March 2001 Issue No.523 |
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Conflicting red lines
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is questioning the timing of the United States and Britsh missile strikes on the outskirts of his capital -- just a few days before the scheduled talks between Iraq and the United Nations aimed at breaking the deadlock which has kept UN weapons inspectors out of Baghdad for more than two years. "If they expected any results from the talks with the UN, then why didn't they wait to strike Iraq so they could say that the dialogue was not up to their expectations?" Saddam asked a cabinet meeting on Sunday.
Many people share the Iraqi leader's concern that the two Western governments attached little importance to the new attempt to resolve the standoff between Iraq and the UN through negotiations. They may even have endeavoured to dampen hopes for a breakthrough which might have come out of the two days of talks between UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamed Said Al-Sahhaf, which ended on Tuesday.
Iraq called for the talks to press for a lifting of the 10-year-long UN economic embargo. On its side, the United Nations wants Iraq to allow weapons inspectors to return to Iraq after being barred for more than two years. The inspectors left Iraq on 16 December 1998, hours before Washington and London launched a four-day airstrike to punish Baghdad for what they said was its failure to cooperate. The Security Council has said UN weapons inspectors must return to Iraq to start verifying that its mass-destrucion weapons are gone before they will even consider suspending the sweeping trade embargo imposed on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
As he wrapped up the first day of talks with Annan, Al-Sahhaf warned that Iraq would not allow weapons inspectors back in the country. "There will be no return for any inspectors in Iraq -- even if sanctions are totally lifted," he said. He added that his delegation insisted Iraq had met all its obligations under the relevant Security Council's resolutions, and would, therefore, demand immediate lifting of the sanctions.
Annan disagreed: "It may take some time. I don't think we are going to have a miraculous breakthrough. But at least it's a beginning." He said it was up to the weapons inspectors to decide if Iraq had met its obligations.
In addition to the red lines drawn by both sides, which have shown that they are still far apart, hopes for progress were also tempered by uncertainties surrounding the Bush administration's future policy towards Iraq. The New York talks coincided with the first trip by US Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East to solicit support for Washington's view that Saddam still poses a threat to the countries of the region and deserves strong sanctions.
While Iraqi children continue to suffer the effects of tight UN sanctions, Kuwait this week held unprecedented celebrations to mark the 10th anniversary of its liberationM
(photos: AFP)
President George W Bush described the sanctions as "Swiss cheese," referring to the holes that were appearing as more and more countries ignored the US-led embargo. He added that his administration was trying to build a consensus to introduce the so-called "smart sanctions," modifying the UN embargo so that it would target the Iraqi leadership instead of the Iraqi people. American officials have not spelled out their interpretation of the "smart sanctions," but some reports have suggested they will include, among other things, tight military sanctions, full control of Iraq's oil revenues, a travel ban on Iraqi officials and charging Iraqi leaders with war crimes or crimes against humanity. This objective was made clear by Powell as he wrapped up his tour on Monday, when he said Washington hoped to announce this policy before the Arab summit in Amman late next month.
Iraq has denounced the idea of the smart sanctions. "It is merely a dubious attempt to evade the substance of the commitments under Security Council Resolution 687 which stipulated the cease-fire conditions in the 1991 Gulf War," Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz said. "The aim is to transform this resolution into fresh resolutions eliminating Iraq's right to ask the Security Council to implement its commitments."
Yet many analysts believe the idea of smart sanctions is but an "un-smart" public relations exercise aimed at taking back the initiative from Saddam, who has succeeded in winning some sectors in the Arab and international public opinion over to his side and punched large holes in the walls of sanctions.
Even in Israel, a country which has no sympathy with Iraq, analysts scoffed at the tactic as a knock-out approach to the problem of Saddam Hussein. Israeli weapons experts are casting doubt on a report by the German intelligence service that Iraq could have operational nuclear weapons in three years.
The report, published on Saturday in the German daily Die Welt and widely applauded in Washington, said German intelligence officers were warning of "concrete signs that Iraq has resumed efforts to produce nuclear weapons."
The Israeli experts questioned whether the timing of the report was related to the 16 February US and British airstrike on Iraq and an apparent effort by the new US administration to bring Iraq back to the top of the international agenda.
"It has very much to do with American internal politics," Yiftah Shapir, an expert in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies, told Ha'aretz. "I think Mr Bush is trying to finish what his father didn't. He is sounding the alarm bells and letting everyone know that we have a problem."
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