12 - 18 April 2001
Issue No.529
|
Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 12 - 18 April 2001 Issue No.529 |
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Current issue | Previous issue | Site map | ||
IMF bride
Demonstrations protesting deteriorating economic conditions in Turkey renew fears of a possible military intervention to restore calm, Gareth Jenkins reports from Istanbul
Tens of thousands of Turks took to the streets last week in a series of increasingly angry protests against the government's failure to take any effective measures to prevent what threatens to be the country's worst economic crisis in over 50 years. In mid-February a highly-publicised quarrel between President Ahmet Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit brought turmoil to financial markets and an end to a 14-month-old IMF-backed economic stabilisation programme. Yet nearly two months later, no measures have been taken either to alleviate the slide into economic recession and political chaos or to address their underlying causes.
On 2 March, the government appointed Kemal Dervis, a 52-year-old Turkish economist working at the World Bank, as economy minister. On 14 March Dervis announced his plan to restore stability and prevent the further slide of the Turkish lira. He called on the government to push through 15 emergency laws by mid-April. But by Tuesday only one had even been presented to parliament. Meanwhile, members of Turkey's ruling coalition initiated a surreptitious smear campaign against Dervis for fear that any success he might achieve would reflect badly on their own economic record and provide him with a platform to launch a political career.
As the politicians intrigue, the Turkish economy has virtually ground to a halt. The economy was already heading into recession before the crisis broke, but since mid-February the Turkish lira has depreciated by 45 per cent against the dollar and an estimated 500,000 people have lost their jobs.
By the end of last week, most manufacturers and suppliers held large stocks of unsold goods. Wholesale prices rose by 10.1 per cent in March alone and are expected to soar in April and May as suppliers begin to place new orders.
"Our suppliers are afraid of quoting prices because they cannot predict what the exchange rate will be when they receive payment," complained one manager of a foreign trade company. "Like us, they are living off their fat at the moment. But in the end everybody has to eat and there is a real danger of people panicking, setting prices ridiculously high and sparking hyperinflation."
The current rash of protests was triggered by Ahmet Cakmak, a florist in Ankara who was unable to make payments on a $6,000 bank loan when interest rates more than doubled. Last Wednesday Cakmak went to the prime minister's office and threw a cash register at Ecevit as he left his office.
Cakmak missed his target and was immediately arrested, then released on payment of a $35 fine. But his example inspired thousands of other small businessmen to take to the streets in a series of mass protests nationwide, calling on the government either to act quickly or resign.
In the Anatolian city of Kahramanmaras, a group of merchants travelled to the local cemetery to complain to the dead. "We have lost our hope in those who are alive," read one placard. "Even the dead must have heard our cries, but the deaf ears in Ankara refuse to listen."
In Istanbul civil servants staged a mock wedding ceremony in which Turkey, the bride, was given away to the IMF bridegroom. Yet, although many inside and outside the country have been highly critical of the IMF's prescriptions for Turkey, there is no question that the fundamental cause of Turkey's problems is home-grown. Even Interior Minister Sadettin Tantan, one of the few indisputably honest men in the coalition government, describes political corruption as one of the gravest threats to national security.
"I don't like the IMF or its programmes," commented one leading New York fund manager, whose company is now desperately trying to reduce all of its Turkish holdings. "But the Turkish political system is riddled with corruption and there is no accountability. The politicians have drained the state-owned banks of $20 billion to enrich themselves and buy votes. Nobody can hold the IMF responsible for that. And that is just one example. The only solution is to let Turkey hit rock bottom, get rid of the current batch of thieves and for some honest, hard-working Turks to take over. There are plenty of them. They just haven't been allowed to get into government."
But the prospect of complete economic collapse, with the accompanying risk of massive civil unrest, is gradually drawing Turkey's powerful military back into the political arena.
"Under the current circumstances new elections would just create even greater chaos," said a military source. "We have warned the government we expect them to pass some urgent measures and support Dervis. But what else can we do? We cannot launch a coup. The international community wouldn't stand for it and it wouldn't be a solution."
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved
 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
| ARCHIVES Letter from the Editor Editorial Board Subscription Advertise! |
WEEKLY ONLINE: www.ahram.org.eg/weekly Updated every Saturday at 11.00 GMT, 2pm local time weeklyweb@ahram.org.eg |
 Al-Ahram Organisation |
Recommend this page