12 - 18 April 2001
Issue No.529
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 12 - 18 April 2001 Issue No.529 |
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Whither Iraq?
For the moment, there is a lull in the struggle for Iraq's future. The different sides are taking the time to regroup and rethink before meeting the challenges ahead, writes Salah Hemeid
Until now the struggle over Iraq has been a war of attrition. Sometimes Baghdad advances, United Nations' weapons inspectors are thwarted, oil smuggling flourishes and Baghdad airport throngs with international visitors seeking business or offering political solidarity. At other times support withers, and Iraq must face alone the crippling UN embargo, containment and isolation imposed on the country since its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
As Arab leaders ended their first regular summit in decades in Amman last month, the Arab world was still in limbo over Iraq. A long awaited opportunity to resolve the crisis could not be seized. Arab leaders' inability, or their lack of desire, to reach a consensus over Iraq, recalled past failures and augured badly for the future.
Iraq's diplomacy seems to have stagnated. Even Babil, the Iraqi newspaper owned and run by Uday Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader's eldest son, admitted on Friday that a diplomatic victory had eluded Iraq at the summit, blaming the country's "failed diplomacy."
That message was attractive to Kuwait, Iraq's arch foe. Encouraged, its government this week began an international diplomatic offensive to maintain the isolation of Saddam Hussein's regime. The emirate sent senior ministers to regional powers such as Turkey and Iran, as well as to China, France and Russia, the three permanent Security Council members known to be sympathetic to Iraq. In explaining their mission, Kuwait's Information Minister Sheikh Ahmed Al-Fahd said the gulf state wants international and regional "guarantees at the highest levels to safeguard its security and territorial integrity" against possible Iraqi threats.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait's biggest regional ally, privately hosted senior officials from the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries on Thursday amid reports that coordination of policies towards Iraq topped their agenda. The gathering in Hafr Al-Baten, a huge Saudi military base on the border with Iraq, was rich in symbols. The base was a platform for launching the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq. The gulf allies seemed to be sending a clear message to Baghdad: what happened in the Gulf between 2 August 1990 and 28 February 1991 was not forgotten.
In the meantime, the rest of the world was watching Washington and the much-discussed review by the Bush administration of policies towards Iraq. The proposed revision calls for "smart sanctions." These would loosen the UN embargo to allow more consumer goods to reach Iraqi civilians while still trying to deny President Saddam Hussein weapons material. US officials say the new sanctions regime will also include tougher policies towards Saddam. These include backing for Iraqi opposition groups in their efforts to remove the Iraqi leader from power.
Yet many regional and world leaders expressed either discontent with or utter rejection of the US plans. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was firmly opposed to using exiled Iraqi opposition groups to try and overthrow Saddam. He warned that the attempt would backfire. On Tuesday, Jordan's King Abdullah met with US President George Bush. He was expected to express his country's concerns over the continuation of the Iraqi dilemma. And Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem, who also visited Washington recently, has pressed the administration to "reorganise" the sanctions regime imposed on Iraq in ways that "will be to the interest of Turkey."
French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, whose country has always been concerned about US policy towards Iraq, criticised President Bush's administration for using a go-it-alone approach to international affairs. Russia, no less critical of Washington, has invited two senior officials from Iraq and Kuwait to Moscow to discuss plans for mediation between the two countries. It has also sent a special envoy to the Gulf to suggest new security arrangements that would include both Iraq and Iran, a move that would certainly infuriate the United States.
But some are keen to work with the US. The chief UN weapons inspector for Iraq, Hans Blix, met top officials of the Bush administration including National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Secretary of State Colin Powell for the first time last week to get a briefing on President George W. Bush's thinking on Iraq. He later said that the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, which he heads, is ready to resume work.
More bad news for the beleaguered Iraqi leader came from the key Shi'ite leader Mohamed Baqir Al-Hakim, chairman of the opposition Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), who told a London-based newspaper on 3 April that he would have no objection to "direct dialogue" with US Secretary of State Colin Powell or other senior American officials "to protect the interests of the Iraqi people." Al-Hakim said that the US administration "has brought a new momentum and is trying to show seriousness in its handling of the Iraqi people's cause." He also appealed to Washington to back words with action against Baghdad's continuing repression of Iraq's people.
But nothing is certain with Iraq. In the last 10 years, Saddam became adept at getting the world's attention by defying the United States. Now another player has won the world's interest: the Bush administration's new policies will be watched closely by those concerned with Iraq and its future.
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