19 - 25 April 2001
Issue No.530
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 19 - 25 April 2001 Issue No.530 |
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Whirling Dervis
A hollow reform plan, announced by Kemal Dervis, Turkey's IMF-imported economy minister, won't end public despair, writes Gareth Jenkins, from Istanbul
On Saturday, Turkish Economics Minister Kemal Dervis finally announced the outlines of a package of economic reforms aimed at ending a two-month old economic crisis. That crisis has wiped nearly half the value from the Turkish Lira against the US dollar and triggered a string of massive anti-government demonstrations and protest marches.
At a press conference to announce the reform package, Dervis assured the Turkish public that, although difficult times still lay ahead, the end of the crisis was in sight. "When we become an economically powerful country we shall look back at these days as if they were all just a bad dream," he said.
Dervis promised what he termed a "new economic order in Turkey," free of the populist policies in which governments effectively bribe voters with offers of employment in the already over-manned civil service, cheap loans from state banks or grossly inflated procurement prices for agricultural products. He pledged that public expenditure would be slashed, the financial sector would be restructured and all state contracts, a favourite instrument for the distribution of political patronage, would become transparent.
But, although the 30-page reform package was full of targets and projections, it provided little clue as to how they would be achieved. Dervis merely undertook to give further details at a later date. The programme's vagueness has done little to reassure an increasingly despairing business community.
"The package simply doesn't meet public expectations," complained Sinan Aygun, chairman of the Ankara Chamber of Commerce. "We have waited 53 days for what is little more than a wish list. Do they expect us to wait another 53 days for details of what will actually be done?"
Nor did the package announced on Saturday contain an indication of whether Dervis had secured foreign financial support for his programme.
"For the last six weeks Dervis has been promising the imminent announcement of $10-12 billion in loans from the IMF or the World Bank," said a Turkish investment banker. "The fact that there aren't any details means that, although they may trust Dervis, the international investment community doesn't have any faith in the government to support him."
For all Dervis' eagerness, others are despondent about the chances for change. "Implementing an effective reform programme means abandoning a system which successive Turkish administrations have used to enrich themselves and buy political support," said a Western diplomat. "It has to change, but we want to see some evidence to convince us that leopards can change their spots."
Many Turks are also deeply sceptical about the current tripartite coalition government's commitment to reform. Both the centre-right Motherland Party (ANAP) and the ultra-nationalist National Action Party (MHP) have issued only half-hearted public expressions of support for Dervis while privately trying to undermine his credibility. Ministers from the Democratic Left Party (DSP) of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit fear that if Dervis is successful he will be perfectly positioned to succeed the ailing 76 year-old premier.
"It increasingly looks as if there is Dervis on one side and the government on the other," wrote Erhan Kumcu in best-selling daily Hurriyet.
Saturday's announcement of the outline of a reform package is likely to buy the government a little time. But if no effective measures are taken to stabilise the financial markets and halt the rapid deterioration in the living conditions of the people, Turks are likely to return to the streets in increasing numbers.
On 11 April, a protest march by traders and shopkeepers in Ankara degenerated into a riot. For over two hours, the city centre resembled a battlefield. By the time the police had restored order, over 200 people had been seriously injured and 127 arrested. The authorities immediately banned all public demonstrations until mid-May.
The government blamed the fighting on provocateurs. There is little doubt that a handful of leftist and Islamist extremists had infiltrated the demonstrators. But it was equally clear that the vast majority of the rioters had no political agenda and were simply exasperated by seeing half of their life savings vanish while an increasingly out of touch government contented itself with issuing platitudes.
On Saturday tens of thousands of trade unionists staged anti-government demonstrations across Turkey, despite calls from their leaders to postpone their protests until after Dervis had announced his package. But such is public anger that many Turks have simply lost all faith in anything their politicians tell them.
"Excuse my language," said Ahmet, a 45 year-old taxi driver. "But sometimes I think we Turks should be really proud of ourselves for being able to find 550 oxen in a population of 70 million and elect them to parliament. The other night as I was listening to them on television I got so angry that I threw the set on the floor and it broke. We don't have a television at home now. But I swear that we are better off because we don't have the stress of listening to these liars and thieves in parliament every night."
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