10 - 16 May 2001
Issue No.533
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 10 - 16 May 2001 Issue No.533 |
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Tit for tat
As power-mongering continues to paralyse progress in the Philippines and Indonesia, people power is coming into its own. Nyier Abdou finds two crisis-riven archipelagos playing follow-the-leader
One hundred days into her unexpected presidency, Philippine leader Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is grappling with her first full-blown crisis as commander-in-chief. Ironically, the cause of this crisis is the same as the one that brought her to power: Joseph Estrada.
Demonstrators in Manila burn a sign with the presidential seal on it in protest of alleged zoning actions by the military in which young men in poor urban areas were rounded up and questioned during the "state of rebellion" imposed by Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
(photo: AP)
The once phenomenally popular Estrada, toppled in January in a "people power" revolt reminiscent of the mass demonstrations that ousted long-time dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986, is proving a persistent thorn to Arroyo's nascent administration. The good girl to Estrada's bad-boy image, Arroyo is all business. A Georgetown University-educated economist and daughter of the late President Diosdado Macapagal, Arroyo intends to pick up the necessarily tough-minded economic reforms where former President Fidel Ramos, Estrada's predecessor, left off. Goal oriented, politically savvy and enjoying the confidence and support of leaders in the region and further afield, Arroyo is well equipped to do battle with the country's most notorious dragons: corruption, cronyism and a legacy of instability. There's only one problem. Estrada, the movie star-turned-people's champion, thinks he's still president -- and more than 200,000 people are ready to back him.
If anyone is anxiously watching how Arroyo plays this crucial test of her leadership, it is Indonesian Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri, who appears poised to inherit the woes of the misguided presidency of beleaguered Indonesian leader Abdel-Rahman Wahid. Like Arroyo, Megawati had her eye on the presidency, but was outmanoeuvred by Wahid. Unlike Arroyo, Megawati has not decamped to join opposition calls for Wahid to step down. While this is probably due, in part, to her purportedly close relationship with Wahid, Megawati clearly recognises the dangers of a snatched presidency -- no matter how legal. It is a risk that Arroyo took and she is now experiencing her first wave of backlash, as tens of thousands of pro-Estrada protesters rioted outside Malacañang Palace last Tuesday morning.
Megawati, daughter of Sukarno, the country's first president, should take note. Wahid's trump card is the powerful Muslim organisation Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), which boasts 40 million members who revere Wahid as a spiritual leader. Violent protests launched after Wahid was first censured by parliament on 1 February were only a hint of what could erupt if he is impeached. With the country crippled by secessionist movements and inter-tribal conflicts, a crusade like the one the NU has promised if Wahid is forced out is not exactly what Megawati had in mind when she made her bid for the presidency in 1999.
There was much inspired commentary about the peaceful anti-Estrada revolt that mushroomed at a famous Manila shrine in January after Estrada's impeachment hearings collapsed in farce. But three months later, Estrada's supporters are not so polite. Five people died in the clashes at Malacañang on 1 May and though police were at pains to restrain themselves, the irony of Arroyo denouncing the protesters only months after widespread demonstrations put her in the palace was not lost on her critics. The mayhem culminated in an alleged coup attempt, easily thwarted.
From the private jail cell where he awaits trial for the capital offence of economic plunder, Estrada has cheered the protests -- set off by the sight of their hero cuffed and fingerprinted like a common criminal on 25 April. Insisting that he is still the "duly elected president," Estrada has managed to win back the sympathy of the Philippines' disgruntled underclass -- his original powerbase. But Estrada, accused of amassing over $80 million, is misinterpreting the constitution when he claims that he was "denied due process of law."
Authorities held off arresting Estrada for months as he took his case to court, but an exasperated Supreme Court ruled three times against his desperate claim to the presidency and its attendant immunity. The military is squarely behind Arroyo, but the country's enormous working class, underprivileged and unimpressed by Arroyo's elite pedigree, are not sticklers for details. Arroyo was forced into tough talk and a radical move: she unilaterally declared a "state of rebellion" on 1 May.
The risky proclamation allowed her to call in the military and round up suspicious opposition leaders. Even though it lasted for less than a week, the unexpected move sent shivers down the spines of people who still recall the day in 1972 when Marcos declared martial law. Arroyo's tough stance was good for the peso, which rallied last week without the help of the central bank, but lawyers and columnists will be offering their comments for months to come.
Instability is the death knell for a floundering economy -- something Indonesian leaders know only too well as the rupiah now plummets to lows akin to those which sparked the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As Manila protests were reaching their zenith last Monday, a determined Indonesian parliament issued its second censure of Wahid -- the second step in Indonesia's long road to impeachment. Wahid, accused of involvement in two financial scandals, took the news with stoic defiance, but the Muslim cleric's hold on power is ever more precarious. Wahid, like Estrada, has repeatedly declared the censures "unconstitutional." Unlike the Estrada case, the evidence against Wahid does not clearly implicate him.
Wahid is probably no fan of Estrada. When Estrada was playing tough guys and romeos in his acting heyday, the Al-Azhar-trained Wahid was already a respected leader of the Nahdlatul Ulama. But Estrada's latest triumphs are no doubt music to Wahid's ears, as his NU supporters regularly pour into Jakarta, a reminder to the Indonesian parliament that they are well-trained, numerous -- and angry.
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