17 - 23 May 2001
Issue No.534
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Al-Ahram Weekly On-line 17 - 23 May 2001 Issue No.534 |
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Right turn in Rome
The landslide victory of Italy's centre-right coalition opens a new chapter in the country's political history, writes Samia Nkrumah from Rome
The victory of Silvio Berlusconi, the centre-right candidate in Italy's election came as no surprise. With a comfortable majority in both houses of parliament, his bloc won the clearest popular mandate given to any post-war Italian government. Known as the House of Freedom, the centre-right coalition won 177 seats in the 315-seat Senate and 368 seats in the 630-member lower house, while the centre-left's Olive Tree coalition won 128 and 250 seats in the Senate and lower house, respectively.
Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's media moghul, celebrates, as results come in announcing his coalition's landslide victory in the 15 May Italian general elections
(photo: AP)
Berlusconi scored both a political and personal victory, with his Forza Italia party increasing its share of the vote as compared to the 1996 elections. Forza Italia won 30 per cent of the popular vote, while its coalition partners, the post-fascist National Alliance and the separatist Northern League, saw their support fall. In particular, the League's vote dropped from 10 per cent to less than four. The League is expected to pose very little threat, therefore, to the stability of a Berlusconi-led government. It was responsible for the fall of the 1994 Berlusconi government. This time around, Berlusconi is expected to last longer as prime minister, given his stronger position vis-à-vis his allies.
The tycoon-turned-politician has survived repeated allegations of misdemeanours and corruption. More than 40 per cent of the electorate rejected the notion that he is unfit to rule because of suspicions about his honesty. Nor were they deterred by Berlusconi's apparent conflict of interest as owner of a large business empire, including Italy's three main TV channels and a large publishing house. Not even his gaffes and display of low political culture during the campaign detracted from his popularity.
In his first televised address following the victory, he reiterated his pledge of tax cuts, a reform of the bureaucracy and a curb on immigration. He also tried to reassure Italy's allies, saying: "We are proud to be part of the EU [European Union] and to have a special relationship with the US. We will work to reinforce those ties."
The Berlusconi government will differ from that of the outgoing centre-left coalition in its foreign policy, particularly in its relations with the United States. John Harper, professor of EU-US relations at Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, predicts that Berlusconi will be more pro-American. "Berlusconi will side with America on matters such as the American defence missile system and NATO enlargement. He is definitely more of an Atlanticist, which might not augur well for an independent Europe," he said. US President Bush was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Berlusconi on his victory.
At the same time, Harper doubts that a Berlusconi-led government will do much damage to Italy's relations with its European partners, because Italy must abide by its commitments under the stability pact of the European monetary union. Berlusconi is also aware that he must earn the trust of a considerable portion of his electorate and that of EU governments and will, therefore, be cautious.
In addition, the centre-left opposition is expected to be vibrant and vigilant. Having won almost 39 per cent of the popular vote compared to the centre-right's 42 per cent, the opposition is a force to be reckoned with. The failure of the centre-left and the left to present a united front as compared to the centre-right's cohesive bloc led to the Olive Tree's defeat.
Indeed, the parties on the left and centre-left had a combined total equal to their score in 1996, but this time round several left-leaning parties ran separately, notably the Refounded Communists (RC) and the party of former anti-corruption judge Antonio Di Pietro. The communists in particular did better than expected, getting 5 per cent of the popular vote and taking crucial votes away from the centre-left coalition. A leading commentator in left-leaning La Repubblica, referring to RC leader Fausto Bertinoti and Di Pietro, wrote, "It is not the majority of Italians that gave Berlusconi the keys to power, but ironically the chief of the communists and the chief symbol of the Clean Hands operation."
Centre-left candidate Francesco Rutelli can take comfort in his strong personal performance. His party, a loose alliance of centre-left parties known as Margherita, has become the third largest in the country, winning 14 per cent of the popular vote.
In spite of long queues requiring some voters to wait for up to two hours, there was a high turnout. About 80 per cent of Italy's 50 million-strong electorate voted in this week's general and mayoral elections, only slightly less than in the last general election.
It appears that Italians are gradually coming round to the notion of a two-bloc system, as nearly all of the smaller, unaligned parties -- with the exception of the RC -- fared worse than expected, failing to surmount the 4 per cent threshold required to qualify for parliamentary seats by proportional representation.
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