24 - 30 May 2001
Issue No.535
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 24 - 30 May 2001 Issue No.535 |
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A country in turmoil
Eight months after overthrowing Yugoslavia's former dictator, Slobodan Milosevic, the country remains in a state of turmoil
Other than agreeing that ousting former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was a great achievement, the ruling elite and intelligentsia in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) seem divided on most issues.
President Kostunica speaking to Ibrahim Nafie and Al-Ahram's delegation
Following late April's parliamentary elections in the federation's second republic, Montenegro, even the official name of the state, FRY, is now in question. The Montenegrin elections' results reflected a clearly divided society (almost 50-50) on the question of whether or not to remain part of federation with Serbia. However, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic insists that he will continue his efforts to form an independent state, and most experts believe he will seek to organise a referendum on this issue before the end of this year.
If Montenegro decided to abandon the federation, there would no longer be a country called Yugoslavia, and Serbia would form a state of its own. Serbian officials, starting with the president and other top officials, are fully aware that, since 1997, Montenegro has, to all intents and purposes, formed an independent state. In his interview with Al-Ahram's delegation to FRY, Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic openly admitted that the federal government was "just a facade" and that all decisions related to Serbia were taken by Serbia alone. The two republics have different parliaments, governments and even currencies. In Serbia, the official currency is the dinar, while in Montenegro it is the Deutschmark. Thus, for Djindjic, the federal government is a "burden", as the Serbian government has to pay salaries to 11,000 people who are not making any effective decisions.
Yet one thing both Djindjic and FRY Serbian President Vojislav Kostunica strongly oppose are attempts by the Montenegrin president to seek a totally independent status for his republic in international institutions, such as the United Nations and other world bodies. In this case, Djindjic said, there would be no other option but to end the existing federation once and for all. Meanwhile, Serbian government officials said they were ready to discuss reducing federal institutions to the minimum, keeping only joint defence, foreign and monetary policies.
It is no secret in Serbia that there are clear differences between President Kostunica and Prime Minister Djindjic, despite the popularity of both figures. While Kostunica is labelled as a "moderate nationalist", Djindjic is seen as a more pragmatic man who is ready to take speedy steps towards integrating Serbia with Europe and building strong ties with the United States.
Such differences are reflected in the stands of both officials towards three main topics which are currently controversial in Serbia: the future of ties with Montenegro; US and European pressure to hand over former President Milosevic to the the International Crime Tribunal of Yugoslavia (ICTY) in the Hague, and the situation in Kosovo. On all three issues, President Kostunica appears as the man with a hardline stand compared with the "moderate" Djindjic.
Djindjic would not openly say he was in favour of handing Milosevic over to the ICTY, but he has repeatedly said he was in favour of implementing all international legitimacy decisions, which include handing over the former president for trial for war crimes he allegedly carried out since assuming power in 1992. Kostunica, however, favours a trial at home, in the first place, for crimes Milosevic allegedly committed against his own people. He also sees it necessary to amend local laws in Serbia in a way that would allow Milosevic's extradition. "Let everything be done in accordance with the law," he said in a recent interview.
President Kostunica is also critical of the ICTY itself, accusing it of "selective justice" and seeking to indict Serbs alone in war crimes committed during the breakup of former Yugoslavia.
Both Djindjic and Kostunica are aware of the pressure Milosevic's extradition issue is placing on the future of Serbia and its desire to attract foreign, and especially American and European, investment. A conference of international donors to help FRY is scheduled to take place in late June. Although the US has not announced officially whether it will take part in the conference, most experts agree that a decision must be taken on Milosevic's future ahead of the donors' meeting. President Kostunica, in an interview to be published in Al-Ahram daily on Friday, said President George W Bush did not directly request Milosevic's extradition to the Hague as a condition for US participation in the crucial donors' meeting.
However, the fact that Kostunica visited the US early in May and met top members of the Bush administration was itself a milestone, considering the deep animosity between Washington and the former Milosevic regime.
As for the situation in Kosovo, where Albanians are fighting for an independent state, Serbian officials admit that the situation there is "very bad", and that no solution is likely in the coming few years. The new government in Serbia, in total contrast to that of Milosevic, is ready to adopt dialogue and compromise in talks with Albanian rebels, rather than depending solely on war and heavy shelling. Fighting continues almost daily in southern Serbia along the border with Kosovo. However, Serbian officials interviewed by Al-Ahram believed the international community itself was not interested in seeing an independent Kosovo. That, the officials said, would create more problems in the region than for Serbia itself. An independent Kosovo would escalate existing tensions in Macedonia, where Albanians are also fighting for more rights. It would also create tension in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria and even Greece, where Albanian minorities live. Serbian officials say they are ready to discuss a new form of relations with Kosovo, and even to consider it an independent republic within the FRY equal to Serbia and Montenegro.
Meanwhile, the deteriorating economic situation in Serbia following NATO's heavy bombing campaign in 1999, coupled with nearly 10 years of economic sanctions and isolation, is adding to the heavy burden Serbian officials must shoulder. Visitors to the Serbian capital, Belgrade, can still see buildings, mostly belonging to Milosevic's Socialist Party and the military establishment, destroyed by NATO's missiles. The infrastructure, also hit by NATO, is in near shambles, and there is much work needing to be done.
"Maybe if NATO had not bombed us, we would not have got rid of Milosevic," one Serbian taxi driver said. "But now, we need the same people who bombed us to help us recover. I don't know if it will work."
Serbia currently has one of the lowest per-capita incomes in Europe, and could even be compared with some Third World countries. Teachers and government employees receive average monthly salaries ranging between $80 and $100. Thus, Serbian officials say, they are "fighting against time". If the Serbian people do not soon feel that turning to democracy and refraining from being a source of strife and trouble to neighbouring countries paid off, more instability can be expected. That is what Serbian officials fear the most.
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