21 - 27 June 2001
Issue No.539
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 21 - 27 June 2001 Issue No.539 |
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Cloudy forecast for Turkey
An expected ruling by Turkey's Constitutional Court to ban the country's main opposition Islamic party is expected to open the door to a new generation of Islamist leaders, Gareth Jenkins reports from Istanbul
Turkey's Constitutional Court is expected to rule this week to ban the country's main opposition party, the pro-Islamist Virtue Party (VP), in a move that is likely to trigger another round of domestic political instability and further intensify Turkey's increasing international isolation.
The VP is accused of being a continuation of the Islamist Welfare Party (WP), which was outlawed by the Turkish courts in January 1998 for allegedly attempting to subvert Turkey's secular constitution. The WP's chairman, former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, was subsequently banned from politics for five years.
Hard-line secularists in the Turkish judiciary maintain that, despite his ban, Erbakan has continued to dominate the VP from behind the scenes, particularly through the appointment of Recai Kutan, a former aide, as party chairman. However, outlawing the VP could merely clear the way for a far more formidable opponent.
Both Erbakan and Kutan are in their mid-seventies, and have failed to capture the imagination of Turkey's youthful population. Over the last year, Kutan has come under increasing pressure from a younger generation within the VP, headed by Tayyip Erdogan, the charismatic 45-year-old former mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan is currently barred from active politics after reciting a poem alleged to have incited religious hatred. But not even his opponents expect his ban to last forever. Erdogan's supporters are already preparing to use the banning of the VP as an excuse to break away from Kutan and Erbakan and launch their own party, ready for Erdogan's eventual return.
Despite his ban, Erdogan's consistently tops the list of politicians people would like to see as prime minister. According to a public opinion poll published earlier this month, 35.2 per cent of those questioned wanted to see Erdogan as prime minister, ahead even of popular Economics Minister Kemal Dervis, who polled 25.3 per cent. Former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller languished in third place with a mere 4.7 per cent.
"Erdogan is the Islamist movement's leader-in-waiting," commented a source close to Turkey's rigorously secular military. "But the generals could never let him come to power."
There is also little doubt that a ban on the VP would infuriate the European Union, which has become increasingly exasperated by Turkey's failure to fulfil its promises to tackle corruption, improve its human rights record and lift its draconian curbs on free speech. At its summit last week in Gothenburg, the EU issued a statement bluntly warning Ankara that it would have to take concrete action if it wished even to be considered as a serious candidate for eventual accession. Yet there has been little sign of a desire for change amongst Turkey's political elite.
On Friday the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) fined Turkey a record £2.5 million sterling for staging a military operation in the south-eastern county of Lice in 1993. Fifteen civilians were killed and 650 buildings destroyed during a punitive operation by the Turkish gendarmerie against local Kurds after a general had been assassinated by a suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) sniper. Turkey had always claimed that the killings were carried out by the PKK. However, on Saturday Interior Minister Yucelen announced that Turkey would pay the fine and vowed to identify the gendarmerie officers responsible.
On the day that the Lice verdict was announced, the Council of Europe issued its third warning to Turkey over its refusal to pay $500,000 in compensation to a Greek Cypriot, Titiana Loidizou, following an ECHR ruling in 1998 upholding her allegation that Turkey was preventing her from returning to her home in northern Cyprus, from which she had been evicted during the Turkish invasion of 1974.
Ankara claims that since the incident took place in northern Cyprus, it falls under the jurisdiction of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). But the TRNC is recognised only by Turkey. The rest of the international community insists that it is a puppet state effectively controlled by Ankara.
In Gothenburg on Friday, the EU pledged to press ahead with the next round of union enlargement. Four new members are expected to be announced early next year, including Greek-Cypriot- administered southern Cyprus. Yet Turkey has vowed that if the Greek Cypriots are admitted to the EU, Ankara will annex the TRNC.
"The annexation of the north would be the last straw, particularly given that Turkey claims it is an independent state" warned a Western diplomat. "They could forget all about EU membership for at least a generation, perhaps forever."
Besides trouble with the EU, there was a similar uproar at home. Earlier this month, Turkish Interior Minister Sadettin Tantan of the Motherland Party (ANAP) was dismissed after he refused to block an investigation into allegations of corruption involving his own party. The most serious of the allegations concerned the planned construction of a $3.2 billion natural gas pipeline under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey. Instead of following the usual practice of putting state contracts out to tender, ANAP leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz travelled to Moscow, accompanied by a delegation of ANAP officials, where he signed an agreement with the Russian gas company Gazprom. The building of the Turkish section of the pipeline was awarded to two companies with close ties to ANAP, who received a $50 million advance payment before they had even started work.
When the Turkish State Security Court ordered an investigation, Yilmaz launched a defamation campaign against the investigating officers. He then tried to force Tantan to block the investigation. Tantan refused and was replaced by another member of ANAP, Rustu Kazim Yucelen, who is renowned within the party for his loyalty to Yilmaz.
"Yucelen doesn't breathe without permission from Yilmaz," commented a leading ANAP member.
Tantan immediately resigned from ANAP, defiantly declaring: "Appointments are temporary. Ideals endure."
But, for the moment at least, Tantan appears to be in a minority.
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