5 - 11 July 2001
Issue No.541
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 5 - 11 July 2001 Issue No.541 |
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Players and referees
The strife now besetting the Middle East has given rise to much justified pessimism regarding future developments. Indeed, pessimism is no longer the prerogative of perceptive parties alone. Even the American administration seems to have contracted the illness.
Secretary of State Colin Powell, for one, could not conceal his concerns on his last tour of the Middle East, and effectively declared his failure to persuade Israel to adopt a position that might provide a way out of the present crisis, whether in implementing the recommendations of the Mitchell report or putting together a reasonable schedule for gradual implementation. Powell has thus made the US administration powerless to affect the current situation, in which the Palestinian Authority is asked to stifle popular resistance while Israel continues to maim and kill the Palestinian people with impunity.
Saudi Crown Prince Abdallah's assessment seems accurate: Israel, he declared, has turned its back on peace and no longer feels the need for it. Israel's policies, like Sharon's statements and his disagreements with Bush, clearly demonstrate this shift. He continues to attack Arafat, still seeks to turn the world against the Palestinian Authority, suggests impossible ways of putting an end to "the violence" and has failed to abide by his own conditions.
Even more conducive to pessimism is America's systematic withdrawal from the arena and consequent acceptance of the Israeli position -- to the point of professing paralysis, rendering American and Israeli outlooks on the Middle East crisis identical.
In this way, America has given Sharon the right to determine the degree of violence needed to effect the transformation from a security-centred to a politically-oriented approach to the crisis, making him the sole judge of Arafat's performance in the effort to stop violence, as if, as well as being a player in the game, Sharon is also the referee.
More absurdly, although Powell had approved the idea of sending international observers to determine who is responsible for the violence, Washington immediately refused to implement any such plan without the Israeli government's explicit approval. Even the decision to take positive steps in the direction of non-violent resolution has landed in Sharon's hands. Powell's visit to the region, it turns out, had no purpose except to endorse the Israeli position and encourage Sharon to go ahead with his plans. And whatever these plans may be, given the US's ambiguity, Europe's passive stance and the Arabs' weakness, Sharon will certainly go ahead with them.
If he decides to liquidate Arafat physically or politically -- and this is indeed what Sharon wants -- Arafat will only be able to count on the Palestinians for support, since no one else in the Arab world will give it. This is why he must rely more and more on the Palestinian people, and provide them with all the support he can. The drama of the disagreement between Bush and Sharon -- which Powell's visit brought to an end -- therefore augurs an especially explosive summer in the region. At any rate, if large-scale violence breaks out as a result of Sharon's reckless arrogance, Washington will find its hands tied, even if it does choose to intervene.
Any Arab cooperation with the "smart sanctions" to be imposed on Iraq is, in this context, an unjustifiable betrayal. The Arabs, especially in Palestine and on the Syrian-Lebanese front, must now expect the worst. One can only hope that Israeli attacks on Syrian bases and clashes with Hizbullah will be warning enough.
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