12 - 18 July 2001
Issue No.542
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 12 - 18 July 2001 Issue No.542 |
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For reason not thuggery
Egypt counsels reason rather than muscle-flexing by Israel in order to save the region from total chaos, writes Nevine Khalil
The Middle East peace process remains stuck in the mud despite a re-activated American role, a CIA-mediated security agreement, recommendations by an international fact-finding commission and the appointment of a new US peace envoy. Arabs place the blame squarely at the doorstep of hard-line Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, leader of the right-wing Likud Party, whose visit as to Al-Aqsa mosque last September ignited the ongoing 10-month Intifada.
This week Cairo was incredulous and furious over reports that the Israeli government is determined to assassinate Palestinian leaders and has entertained "eliminating" Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. Referring to last week's announcement by the Israeli security cabinet that it is resuming its policy of assassinating leading Palestinian activists, starting with its hit-list of 25 chosen Palestinian activists, a shocked President Hosni Mubarak told a news conference in Alexandria on Monday that "Such public statements of assassination are unbelievable."
"I cannot imagine how [Israel] can issue such statements," Mubarak continued. Israel says the policy is aimed at pre-empting suicide bombings in Israeli cities, while the Palestinians accuse Israel of waging an assassination campaign that has claimed the lives of 40 activists so far. "Even if these 25 so-called activists are eliminated, 150 will replace them, triggering a cycle of revenge," Mubarak said. "We must think rationally if we want the region to stabilise." The president further warned that these assassinations would create "confusion and negative public opinion around the world."
Cairo was particularly enraged by leaked Israeli intelligence reports recommending the elimination of Arafat. Despite denials by Israeli officials, including Sharon, Palestinian officials and the Israeli media continue to talk of a plan by Israeli intelligence to assassinate Arafat. "This is a very dangerous precedent, and they must stop this talk of assassinations and thuggery," said Mubarak. "If anything happens to him [Arafat], this will inflame Arab sentiments and public opinion against [Israel] for carrying out such a crime."
According to a recent article published in the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv, Israel's elite internal security apparatus, Shabak, prepared a report last October concluding that the absence of Arafat would be more beneficial for Israel. The report was presented to then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak one month after the Intifada broke out, but he did not act on the recommendation.
The report delineated the pros and cons of Arafat's continued presence. On the positive side, the report cited four reasons why Arafat's presence was beneficial for Israel, namely that he has recognised the state of Israel by opening negotiations and is committed to the peace process. The report recognises that Arafat is the supreme authority recognised by Palestinians and notes that he is capable of taking difficult decisions. It concludes that in his absence, the Palestinian Authority (PA) could fall into the hands of radical Islamists or elements associated with Iran or Syria, which could bring about chaos.
On the other hand, the intelligence report gave 17 reasons why Arafat's elimination would be a plus. These included the fact that Arafat was a dangerous leader who could drag the region to mayhem and jeopardise Israel's strategic gains of signing peace agreements with Egypt and Jordan. The report noted that Arafat believes violence and terrorism are legitimate means of resistance and that he will never compromise on Jerusalem or the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Arafat was declared a compulsive liar and ingenuous in winning world opinion to his side.
The report goes on to extrapolate on a scenario "beyond Arafat", stating that soon after his "disappearance from the arena" there would be a an internal power struggle among PA figures. This struggle would probably end by secular security elements forming a centre coalition. The new leadership would be young, pragmatic and less religious and the new president would busy himself shoring up support in the Arab world. Egypt and Jordan would boost their influence on Palestinians and the PA would thus lose much of its influence in the international arena.
Finally, the Shabak report concludes that Arafat represents a grave danger for the state of Israel and the disadvantages of his presence surpass by far those of his disappearance. "It is short-sighted to say that Arafat is an obstacle to peace, he has achieved many things, and is a leader since the 1960s who is followed by many Palestinians," noted Mubarak. "If they got rid of Arafat, 30 or 40 Arafats would replace him. [Israel] could say that it does not trust Arafat, but the solution is not to get rid of him this way."
Mubarak counselled wisdom to all concerned parties and an immediate return to negotiations, despite Israeli demands for a watertight cease- fire before talks begin. "Threats will not put an end to the problem. Leaders must all focus on finding ways to overcome this crisis by making good calculations and sitting at the negotiating table to resolve problems," he noted. "Waiting for violence to cease completely means we will never reach a solution for this conflict, and not reaching a solution will harm the parties and will place the whole region on the brink of the abyss."
Mubarak called on world powers to become more heavily involved in bringing peace and stability to the Middle East in order to protect their interests in the region. "Efforts must continue intensively," he urged. "If superpowers like the US and the EU do not exert greater efforts, I fear that their vital interests in the region will be harmed." He added that the recommendations of the Mitchell report were approved by all parties, and the "influence of world powers" was needed to ensure their implementation.
"Let's be realistic -- negotiations are a must, because it is impossible to resolve issues by increased aggression and forcing [the parties involved] to accept the de facto arrangement," said Mubarak. He also called on Israel to reconsider the possibility of sending international observers to the occupied territories in order to "referee" the initiators of clashes, provide an objective perspective on events and help bring about calm. "I don't understand why Israel does not want to agree to the presence of international observers," he said, "and we shouldn't always comply with everything the Israeli government demands."
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