26 July - 1 August 2001
Issue No.544
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 26 July - 1 August 2001 Issue No.544 |
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Taking the long view
Be it a matter of defence, regional peace or development, Egypt cannot afford to leave the US out of the equation. Tarek Atia looks at the ebbs and flows in Cairo's relations with Washington
Egypt and the United States have always shared a common language -- that of strategic interests. The desire to see peace in the region is one of the main driving forces of Cairo's relationship with Washington and in this regard, Egypt's role is pivotal.
In March, ceaseless provocations by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the occupied territories saw an escalation of violence, spurring calls for the US to take a stronger hand in the crisis. But the new Bush administration was otherwise occupied with a disastrous diplomatic crisis over a downed spy plane in China. Bush had already stated that the US was planning to play a less active role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, and in the words of one Egyptian diplomat, the US left the door open for a larger Egyptian role. It was both an opportunity and a challenge for Egyptian diplomacy.
The results have been manifold. While a joint initiative between Egypt and Jordan to put the peace process back on track made little progress on the ground, its basic principles are mirrored by the recommendations made by the so-called Mitchell report -- the result of a US-led fact-finding mission into violence in the region. And though the US had insisted it was reducing its role in the Middle East, Egyptian diplomacy played a key role in bringing the US back to the fore. Partly due to intense lobbying on Egypt's part, the head of the CIA, as well as special US envoys and Secretary of State Colin Powell, have all paid visits either to initiate, implement or monitor a tenuous truce.
Cairo has worked to maintain its position as a peace broker, not just between the Palestinians and the Israelis, but also in a joint initiative with Libya aimed at bringing an end to Sudan's civil war. Egypt has also pushed for various collective Arab goals, such as the lifting of crippling sanctions on Iraq -- a sensitive subject in Washington.
Last week Cairo hosted a meeting between Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, reaffirming its credentials as a key player in Middle East peacemaking. This week's visit to Cairo by US envoy David Satterfield also helped move the situation closer to a goal Cairo has been seeking for months -- deployment of an international observer force to help monitor the truce in the occupied territories.
Egypt has been pushing for a greater US role in the region despite being keenly aware of the US's special relationship with Israel. In fact, the issue of monitors is a strong indication that this formidable US-Israel relationship is not set in stone. Thanks in part to intense Egyptian diplomacy, the US finally lent its support to a monitoring force -- provided the idea was accepted by Israel. Israel strongly opposed it, however, and the incident resulted in a flurry of Israeli press reports questioning whether the US-Israeli relationship was deteriorating.
The nature of the US-Egyptian relationship is something Israel takes careful note of. Much of the public airing of potential problems between Egypt and the US, in fact, can be attributed to the watchful eyes of the Israeli lobby's numerous prongs. "If it were not such an important relationship, it would not be attacked so frequently or heavily," Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher recently told a gathering of Egyptian and American business people in Cairo. This week, amid rumours of a shift in Egypt's image in the US, Maher reiterated that US-Egyptian relations were strong, and that there was no official US campaign against Egypt.
The lion's share of US-Egyptian cooperation is a direct result of the US- brokered 1978 Camp David peace accord between Egypt and Israel and it will be a challenge for Egypt to pursue justice for Palestinians without this affecting its relationship with the US. Recently, Egyptian-US relations have been somewhat strained by mounting criticism of Egypt in the US press. The most serious instance was a Washington Post article by Senator Mitch McConnell. McConnell raises a stock of queries over possible Egyptian-North Korean arms deals, questions why Egypt has not pushed the Palestinians enough, and asks whether Egypt is worth the $50 billion it has received in US aid since Camp David.
McConnell, the ranking republican in the Senate Foreign Appropriations Committee, is one of those responsible for passing through the annual $2 billion aid package to Egypt. That package is being voted on in the House of Representatives this week. "His article is no joke," remarked an Egyptian diplomat. "If he really feels this way, it could be a problem." The diplomat added, however, that he couldn't see McConnell's efforts winning in the end, especially with equally strong voices, like former US Ambassador to Egypt Edward Walker, responding with an article entitled "US Aid to Egypt: Worth Every Penny". If the administration wants Egypt to get that aid badly enough, it will interfere.
But how badly does the US need Egypt right now? A few key issues come to mind. The US is still trying to shore up support for a new sanctions regime on Iraq and the US highly values its military presence in the Gulf. Economic cooperation is also a key issue, though it is often overshadowed by political concerns.
On the issue of US policy being affected by issues brought up in Congress, Foreign Minister Maher told a recent gathering at the American Chamber of Commerce, "Sometimes they put certain language into reports, while letting us know that nobody reads these reports. A mature relationship means that we have learned to disagree in a very civilised manner."
And while it is often deemed beneficial to push for stronger ties with the US on all accounts, it is interesting to consider that the closer Egypt draws to the US, the more it exposes itself to attacks from those who stand to lose most. In fact, movement on all levels of cooperation could, paradoxically, endanger Cairo's relationship with Washington.
US courtship of Egypt with regard to Iraq could result in more give and take between Egypt and the US in the early stages of policy formulation. Asked what kind of a role Egypt could play in terms of an evolving, but still unclear, new US strategy on Iraq, Maher warned, "We don't fit into anyone's strategy."
The US administration is realising that "even though it could dictate policy in the past, it can't now," a diplomatic source said, which is not to say Egypt has a stronger hand in the new administration's policy objectives regarding Iraq and Sudan.
It is clear that military cooperation is important to both sides. Following a recent meeting with Maher in Washington, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said as much, possibly alluding to a decision to facilitate the delivery of weapons promised to Egypt. It could also indicate yet more training operations like Bright Star, the largest US military war games exercise conducted abroad.
One thing Egypt must recognise is that promoting its interests abroad takes more than a few strongly-worded statements. "One of the main problems is that Egypt does not project enough of the positive sides of Egyptian society," Maher remarked. "We allow those who have an interest in ruining the relationship to speak loudly."
"Americans have short attention spans," commented one diplomat. "They believe Israeli messages because they're simple. Sure they're willing victims, but still, there's so much more Egypt could do to change that."
Furthering Cairo's agenda with regard to the US means an onslaught of diplomatic, economic and cultural relations, with frequent visits and consultations spread out over the year. In his annual visit to the US, President Hosni Mubarak lays the groundwork for these goals, but it is left to the foreign minister, as well as other visiting ministers and the embassy in Washington to effectively coordinate targeted missions. One diplomat stressed the importance of creating known figures -- people recognisable and relevant on all tracks of cooperation.
Nurturing relations in various fields carries both the benefits and the risks inherent in any partnership with a military, cultural and economic powerhouse like America. Cementing ties may expand possibilities, but the benefits are bound to be lopsided at times.
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