2 - 8 August 2001
Issue No.545
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 2 - 8 August 2001 Issue No.545 |
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Looking for pretexts
As Baghdad and the Pentagon exchange accusations, tension is mounting over the US-imposed "no-fly zones" in northern and southern Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid
Iraq on Sunday claimed that the United States was preparing to attack it after an attempt by Iraqi air defence forces to shoot down a US plane. The warning came after the Pentagon claimed that Iraq had apparently fired a surface-to-air missile at a US surveillance plane in Kuwaiti airspace last week. Iraq denied that its gunners had fired a missile at a US U-2 spy plane, saying that Washington wanted to create a pretext for a fresh confrontation.
There are, in fact, good reasons to worry that this might come to pass. According to the Pentagon's statement, the crew of a navy U2 surveillance aircraft flying in Kuwaiti airspace last Thursday reported seeing the smoke plume of a surface-to-air missile apparently fired from inside Iraqi territory. The Pentagon said the unarmed, single-seat plane was not hit by the missile and the sighting could not be immediately confirmed by other means. However, it said it was possible the missile was not guided by radar, meaning that it could not be tracked by its electronic signals. The Pentagon's story implies that Iraq has succeeded in developing new tactics to confront the US and British planes enforcing the "no-fly zones."
In its reaction to the incident, the US administration took the hard line. President George W Bush said Iraq's President Saddam Hussein was "still a menace," and declared, "We're going to keep the pressure on Iraq" and "the no-fly zone is still in place." His National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice cautioned that the US administration will take a more resolute military policy toward Iraq. Rear Admiral Craig Quigley, a Pentagon spokesman, put the warning more bluntly when he announced: "We have said on any number of occasions that we reserve the right to respond in a time and a location and a manner of our choosing to these aggressive actions against coalition air crews."
Iraq promptly denied that its air defence forces had fired at a U-2 spy plane, saying that the missiles were fired at an American F-15 warplane. Iraq's permanent representative to the United Nations, Mohammed Al-Douri, said Iraq "is preparing for the US military strike which could occur at any moment."
Having achieved a public relations victory following the US-British failure to push through the "smart sanctions" resolution at the Security Council, Iraq seems to be using this latest series of events to try to drum up additional international support in the face of a US or British attack.
All of this suggests that the confrontation between Washington and Baghdad will continue -- with the no-fly zones having become the new battlefield -- in a "wait-and-see" manner until November when the adversaries resume their diplomatic squabble over sanctions. The Security Council imposed sanctions on Iraq following its 1990 invasion of Kuwait.
With Iraqis beefing up their air defences and firing more often at US and British aircraft, the zones over northern and southern Iraq are becoming increasingly dangerous for their enforcers. Washington is responding by ordering its pilots to avoid risky areas and making sure they are prepared for a possible rescue mission. American pilots say that in many cases the Iraqi missiles are being fired without radar guidance because American aircraft carry missiles designed to home in on radar. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has recently warned that US and British pilots patrolling the two zones face increasing danger from attempts by Iraq to down their first allied warplane in a decade of enforcing the zones.
By pushing the struggle to the no-fly zones, Iraq aims not only to humiliate the United States by downing one of its planes and taking its pilot prisoner, but also to control the timing of a new military standoff. By Iraq's calculations, a renewed US campaign, coming amidst rising tension in the Middle East with the Arabs accusing the United States of siding blindly with Israel, could deepen anti- American sentiments and radicalise the Arab world.
A day after Washington accused Baghdad of firing at the U-2 plane, President Hussein told his air defence forces to continue surprising the US and British planes patrolling the no-fly zones. "So long as you weaken or terminate one of the enemy's means to target us... then this enemy will be forced to reconsider his position," said Hussein in a speech broadcast by Iraqi satellite television. As an added incentive, Hussein offered 10 million dinars to any Iraqi military unit that shoots down an enemy warplane and 5 million dinars for the capture of a US or British pilot.
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