6 - 12 September 2001
Issue No.550
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 6 - 12 September 2001 Issue No.550 |
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Tilting at windmills
As the oligarchs who dominate Syria's political scene assert themselves, Bashar Al-Assad's attempts to initiate reform appear increasingly hapless. In Damascus, Ranwa Yehia takes Syria's political temperature
Corruption countered, politics purged, an economy invigorated: these were the hopes that accompanied Bashar Al-Assad's instalment as Syria's president. And he has tried to deliver. Intellectuals have been allowed to gather, a private press has been encouraged, political prisoners were freed. But the arteries of reform have hardened frighteningly fast. Entrenched cliques of power have asserted themselves, political gains have vanished and Al-Assad's efforts at reform have appeared increasingly quixotic. Few of the promises of reform the 35-year-old leader made upon becoming president last July have been fulfilled; those that were have not lasted. So far, Al- Assad has been unsuccessful in paving the way for reform.
Even his "campaign promises" have foundered. Before becoming president, Al-Assad made combating corruption a priority. But his centrepiece anti-corruption campaign has been resisted at every turn, and halted before it won any real momentum. Railing against Al-Assad was the old- guard team who surrounded his father, mostly hard-liners representing factions in the security and intelligence apparatus, who found the prospect of reform unendurable.
The state Al-Assad inherited runs through a venal system based on loyalty. Al-Assad's late father created powerful cliques that benefited from the system but were loyal to him. But now the polarity has changed. "While the centres of power always felt indebted to the late Al-Assad, they consider that Bashar Al-Assad is indebted to them," says Samir Al-Taqi, a former member of parliament and an outspoken critic of the regime. Those centres of influence fiercely resisted Al- Assad's attempts at reform; and the new president has not established himself enough to control them. As a result, they have successfully defended their fiefs, and their heavy hand constrains all the president's moves.
At home, then, Al-Assad has attempted few changes: he did release hundreds of political prisoners, he permitted the first private newspaper, and even allowed intellectuals to gather in public and debate issues utterly embargoed during his father's rule.
But in February came a clampdown on public gatherings, indicating the pressure Al-Assad faced from those around him.
The pace of repression has since quickened. A member of Parliament, Maamoun Homsi, was arrested two weeks ago, shortly after he unprecedentedly called for a hunger strike to demand more democracy and less corruption. Plainly, the oligarchs disapproved. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that Al-Assad's reforming power is not totally spent: they point out that the judiciary will handle Homsi's case (the charge is tax evasion), not security officers.
Assessing the clampdown, analysts argue that Al-Assad and the old guard felt that after 30 years of Hafez Al-Assad's rule, the active middle class was successfully controlled, and that allowing public gatherings was safe.
They were in for a shock. "The movement grew so quick; it broke one taboo after another. People were very bold, and started discussing issues that touched the red line," says Riad Seif, a member of parliament and staunch critic of the government. (Like Homsi, Seif is also charged with tax evasion). But since then, prospects have grown gloomier. "A year ago, we had great hope but we have been waiting since for a new government because no one believes the existing one will achieve reform. We now know that there was no real will for reform; the changes that happened were cosmetic to give people some hope," Seif said.
But despite the power of the oligarchs, Al- Assad may soon have to implement reform: without it, there is a very real risk that the economy could implode. Perhaps the major obstacle to the flailing economy is the entrenched corruption in the country. Seif feels corruption has doubled since the younger Al-Assad took over. He compares Syria's political condition to that of a sick person who stopped taking antibiotics before finishing treatment.
"Corruption, which starts from the top and descends to the smallest
employee, is paralysing the country," he said.
But attempts at economic reform have been unsuccessful, largely because the oligarchs benefit too much from the system as it stands.
In any case, Al-Taqi believes that the economy is so fragile that any attempt at reform could lead to a currency collapse.
Foreign investment is seen as a possible remedy. But in a country where nothing can be accomplished without the nod of the secret service, analysts feel Al-Assad's hopes of attracting investment are dim.
Michel Kilo, a Syrian intellectual and activist, believes Al-Assad's trip to France aimed to give Europeans guarantees that investment in Syria was profitable and safe. Al-Assad's plan was to convince the Europeans to invest in Syria on the condition that they do not interfere with domestic affairs.
But a mere four days before he arrived in France, Al-Assad's hopes of unconditional European investment took a blow when journalist and human rights activist Nizar Nayyouf was kidnapped.
The allegation that security forces acted on their own, and kidnapped Nayyouf in broad daylight, releasing him only after an order from the top reflected the notion that Al-Assad does not have a firm grip on the country. Officially, Nayyouf's kidnap was denied, with Information Ministry official Mounir Ali describing the journalist as "mentally disturbed."
Perhaps Al-Assad's last hope of tightening his grip on the country is to move more of his own people into positions of power. "But the real question is to examine the performance of the "Basharites" appointed thus far... to see if they have any potential to oversee change," said Marlin Dick, an expert on Syrian issues.
Meanwhile, the ever-growing tension in the region looms. Still, some believe the revival of the Palestinian Intifada 11 months ago was "probably the best thing that happened to Bashar" since he took over.
The Syrian president, according to an analyst, has focused on the
Palestinian situation in each of the few speeches he has made since he took over. This also explains the warming of relations between Syria and the Palestinian Authority since Al-Assad made a powerfully pro- Palestinian speech at the Arab summit in Amman in March.
"Bashar is trying to get legitimacy through politics, because it is easier than doing it through economy. He needs to build himself into the figure of a national leader," the analyst said.
More widely, Al-Assad's regional moves are built on the policies of his father, but with his own contribution. Like his father, Al-Assad supports Hizbullah and the Palestinian cause, but he has accelerated rapprochement with the Palestinian Authority - and with Iraq. Last November, Syria reopened a pipeline now believed to carry over 100,000 barrels a day of Iraqi crude oil, bought at a discount and used in Syrian refineries. The pipeline is one of the most controversial pieces of Syria's regional policy; the US has complained repeatedly to Damascus: as yet to no avail.
Three weeks ago, a Syrian Information Ministry source revealed that Syrian authorities had seized a million dollars worth of contraband smuggled into Syria by a gang connected to Al-Assad's relatives.
The move could either be cosmetic, attempting to deflate growing resentment at the corruption that paralyses the economy; or it could indicate a reinvigorated reform effort. Time alone will tell whether Syria, embattled by corruption and economic malaise, has a worthy champion in Al-Assad, or dreams of progress are just so much fantasy.
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