13 - 19 September 2001
Issue No.551
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 13 - 19 September 2001 Issue No.551 |
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Ready for war?
If the decision-makers of the Arab world had adopted a crisis management policy taking the worst-case scenario into account, perhaps the course of history would have been entirely different. At present, if one wants to guard against the dangers on the horizon, one has to consider just such a scenario. This problematic, however, presents a challenge to the Arabs, who often mistake preparedness for pessimism. In reality, of course, by being ready for the worst, one is in a better position to deal with a less threatening situation. If the worst happens, it doesn't take one by surprise; if it doesn't, all the better.
For the Arabs, the worst-case scenario at present is this: Israel will launch military attacks on the Palestinian territories, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, then direct its attention to the Egyptian borders, penetrating Sinai as soon as possible. This would trigger an all- encompassing regional war, with consequences including the destruction of some 30 cities, 100 strategic targets, 10,000,000 lives and a considerable portion of the global environment. Are we ready for this? However beneficial frankness and transparency may be in creating strategic alternatives, it is necessary to think of the eventuality of war. Crisis management plans would allow society to deal with shock effectively, reducing potential damage to a minimum.
Besides, if the options are military conflict or economic war, perhaps the worst we can imagine is not war, but Israel's policy of slowly strangling the Palestinian Authority to death. Israel has coordinated a system of repression that uses military, economic and diplomatic methods while engaging in economic conspiracy and spreading nuclear terror. Sharon's "war now" policy, typically, is shrouded in silence. And while it is secretly engaged in a real war against the Arabs, Israel will not be making an official declaration to that effect anytime soon. As Arabs, then, it could be that nothing is worse than what we are now confronting. Without thinking of the worst-case scenario, however, there is nothing we can do about it.
* This week's Soapbox speaker is a professor of political science at Helwan University.
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