27 Sep. - 3 Oct. 2001
Issue No.553
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 27 Sep. - 3 Oct. 2001 Issue No.553 |
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Winner takes all
The Intifada was in essence an attempt to stir up the stagnation that beset the Palestinian situation following Camp David II and the failure to reach a final settlement. The Palestinian leadership reached the conclusion that even the minimum Palestinian demands would not be met.
In the year since it began, the Intifada has strangled settlement activities, curbing their cancer-like spread in the West Bank and Gaza. The resistance destroyed the settlers' hopes of staying on, so that Israeli politicians began to worry about the entire settlement programme. The failure of Israel's expansionist policies must contribute to the failure of the Zionist project in its entirety, causing a change in the essence of Israel's political composition, in which settlement activities are a central precept.
The effect of the Intifada reached the colonies' infrastructure, which is a prerequisite of their continued existence. Factories were closed down and the settlements' economic resources were destroyed. The Intifada destroyed the bases of the expansionist project, which thrives on immigration, security and settlement-building. By inspiring terror among the settlers, the revolt has replaced these activities with a mass exodus.
By the same token, it has proved that it is impossible to impose a purely Israeli solution on the Palestinian people. It has also proved that Israel's decision to employ the military in crushing the uprising was not particularly wise.
The Intifada stressed the Palestinian people's willingness to struggle and their ability to challenge Israeli oppression, empowering national unity in the context of the battle. It highlighted the bankruptcy of Arab regimes, and increased hatred for America's biased policies.
Its fate is fundamentally connected with the reasons for which it began: as a protest at the conditions imposed on the Palestinian people, which confirmed in practice what Camp David II had made clear: that the path to a final settlement was blocked, due to the issues of Jerusalem and the refugees' right of return.
The Palestinian side warned against a wave of popular anger triggered by Israeli policies. Barak contributed to this anger when he let Sharon visit Al-Aqsa, thinking that this was a way of weakening President Arafat and the PA, and forcing them to accept Israel's dictates.
The Intifada was effectively a declaration of war, heralding a large-scale confrontation and giving each side the opportunity to exercise open pressure on the other. It may be the last confrontation between the two sides; and its consequences will determine the position of each side in future negotiations.
The Palestinians seek a political achievement in return for the sacrifices they have made, while the Israelis seek the end of the Intifada through Sharon and his military operations. This autumn will be a hot one, for the PA is unlikely to grow weaker in the near future: it relies on Arab and international support, and popular backing at present will allow it to withstand the blows of the future. There is, in fact, no reason to believe that the Intifada will end soon.
In this confrontation, whichever side gives in will lose the most at the negotiating table. For Israel, the loss in question will mean accepting Palestinian demands to return to the 1967 borders. If the Palestinians announce the end of the Intifada, they will be accepting Israel's condition: the liquidation of the Palestinian question in its entirety.
This is why the Intifada will continue until the Palestinian people achieve their fundamental goals.
* The writer is PA chief of security in the West Bank.
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