1 - 7 November 2001
Issue No.558
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 1 - 7 November 2001 Issue No.558 |
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A new world order?
The Russians and the Americans are edging closer together, but old rivalries die hard, writes Mona Abdel-Malik in Moscow
The 11 September attacks in the US have had global ripple effects, among them the rather unexpected rapprochement between Russia and the United States. While Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia would support the US in its struggle against terrorism, he also qualified this statement by explaining that Moscow was only willing to cooperate with Washington on its own terms.
(photo:AP)
Russian officials have expressed muted irritation over a pervasive US-centric view of world politics. The 1999 terrorist bombing of a Moscow apartment building that killed hundreds of people was granted little space in the international media. Yet, when Americans died on 11 September, the whole world has been mobilised and, indeed, required to participate in retaliatory actions.
In the long run, however, Russia may gain political ground with respect to some of its controversial policies. Since 11 September, the US has taken a new approach towards Russia's military presence in Chechnya. The European Union (EU) and the US have repeatedly threatened Moscow with sanctions over evident disregard of human rights in the predominantly Muslim breakaway province of Chechnya. With the onset of the US bombing campaign in Afghanistan, Moscow was quick to point out to the Bush administration that US tactics were comparable to those used by the Russians in Chechnya.
President Putin told the Americans in no uncertain terms that the Chechen situation could not be considered outside of the context of the US-led war against terrorism. Moscow is hoping to obtain a relatively free hand in Chechnya in exchange for its cooperation with the US. But Putin has been hesitant to commit to a military role, only specifying that Moscow is willing to give Washington access to its intelligence files. Russian officials have suggested that Russian officers who served in Afghanistan during the country's occupation by Russian forces would work as consultants to US military experts -- a strange twist of fate, considering it was the US-backed militias that drove the Russians out.
Afghanistan is a formidable country for any invader: history has shown that some of the world's best armies, including those of the British and Soviet empires, were cowed into retreat in their attempts to conquer Afghanistan. The Taliban -- many of whom are former mujahedin fighters who received training from the CIA to expel the Soviet army -- are now the enemy, and those same Russian occupiers are a crucial US ally.
Russia's willingness to assist the US in their war against the Taliban is, naturally, motivated by self-interest. Moscow has its own stakes in the war against Afghanistan and over the past several years has provided the Northern Alliance opposition forces with military support to fight the Taliban. Again, the lessons of history have proved reflexive: military commanders of the Northern Alliance were also among the fearless mujahedin who fought the Soviet occupation.
If Moscow has edged closer to Washington in the wake of 11 September, there is one issue on which the Russians will not compromise: the so-called clash of civilisations that has erupted around the US's paranoia and need for retaliation. Though the US has stressed that it is not waging a war against Islam, Muslims the world over are still waiting to see evidence of this claim. Some 20 million Muslims live in Russia and Islam is considered the second of the four official religions. The country has common borders with numerous Muslim states and shares their strategic interests. In short, Moscow cannot afford to be seen as hostile to Islam.
Addressing Germany's Bundestag, prominent Russian politician and former Prime Minister Yevgeni Primakov (whose German is flawless) warned against the dangers of dividing the world's states into "civilised" and "rogue" nations based on compliance with US actions. The largest country in the world, Russia straddles Europe and Asia, dooming its leadership to eternal manoeuvring between East and West.
The world after 11 September has a very different geo-political map. The Kremlin knows that a new world order is in the process of being formed and Putin has brought Russia closer to the West by showing its readiness to join the US in its battle against international terrorism. Consequently, the Kremlin is hoping to get quick returns on this investment. In addition to an end to Western criticism of Russia over Chechnya, Moscow is seeking a greater share in global decision- making. A restructuring -- or even cancellation -- of the USSR's debt may also be expected as payback for Moscow's support in wiping out the Taliban.
After all, the Kremlin is taking some significant risks by joining the US-led alliance against terrorism. Moscow's support of US attacks on the Taliban may eventually lead to serious discontent among Russians. Furthermore, the Kremlin risks losing its influence in Central Asia. Central Asian countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan originally put forward a similar position to that of Russia: they were only ready to provide the US and its allies with air corridors to transport humanitarian aid. A few days later, US troops and intelligence were already arriving in Uzbekistan.
The Uzbek leadership quickly realised that it cannot afford to lose such a valuable chance to move closer to the US. In doing so, however, it must distance itself from Russian influence. Tashkent's goal has been clearly stated: with US aid, it hopes to take on the role of regional leader.
Moscow's greatest concern right now is the world order that will emerge after the war in Afghanistan. Washington is evidently doing its best to use the pretext of the war to settle itself in Central Asia and strengthen its positions in the region. Russia may have something to say about that.
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