Al-Ahram Weekly | International

		Al-Ahram Weekly Online 15 - 21 November 2001 Issue No.560
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Irish quagmire
As Tony Blair wages a "war on terror" abroad, the texture of peace in Northern Ireland is taking on new directions, writes Gavin Bowd

British soldiers were attacked on Sunday by Catholic and Protestant rival gangs in north Belfast (Photo:AP)

The re-election of Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader David Trimble as first minister of the Northern Ireland Assembly seems to herald new non-sectarian consensus behind the institutions created by the Good Friday agreement of 1998. That agreement created a new devolved assembly or parliament for the province at Stormont. It was signed by 8 of Northern Ireland's 10 political parties and by the British and Irish governments.
Trimble, a moderate unionist, was originally elected as first minister of the Assembly but resigned his post earlier this year over the Irish Republican Army (IRA)'s failure to decommission arms. He sought re-election after a historic IRA decision to hand in its weapons, and won despite the opposition of other unionists. Trimble faced opposition from dissidents within own party's ranks, as well as from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). However, he did receive the support of the extreme republican party, the Provisional Sinn Fein, a fact which caused unseemly scuffles in the corridors of the Assembly.
With Trimble's re-election, Northern Ireland's fragile institutions seem to have been saved for the time being. The IRA ceasefire is politically and militarily the most crucial aspect behind the new consensus. Weapons are being decommissioned, at least on the republican side. Further progress will depend on the British government, who have promised to reduce their military presence and reform the police.
Two recent events have contributed to the recent change in Northern Ireland's fortunes. The first is the arrest of two IRA men in Colombia who were advising the Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC). It has emerged that the pair were helping the Colombians construct explosive devices resembling napalm, which could be used in a putative offensive on the Colombian capital Bogota. The arrests -- a veritable coup for British intelligence -- greatly tarnished the image of Sinn Fein and the IRA in the USA. The US has been an important source of financial aid and political legitimacy for Irish republican terrorism over the past three decades.
The events of 11 September accelerated this disenchantment in US eyes. All of a sudden, Americans no longer saw Irish militants as heroes. This was exacerbated by the fact that the IRA's "war" is conducted against Tony Blair who, as the US's honorary vice- president-cum-spokesperson, has become a popular figure amongst the American public.
Events have conspired to qualify any optimism about the future of Northern Ireland, however. Trimble's re-election could only proceed because some representatives of the non-sectarian Alliance party re-designated themselves as Unionists. Under the Good Friday Agreement, a first minister must be approved by the majority of the (legally defined) "unionist" and "nationalist" camps. Far from being eradicated, sectarianism has been embedded in the province's institutions themselves.
Ten days ago, a car-bomb, probably left by the dissident Real IRA, wreaked havoc in central Birmingham, the UK's second city. A high-ranking Republican told the BBC's Ulster division that the decision to decommission IRA's arsenal of weaponry -- which, until now, has included a rather obsolete anti-aircraft gun -- was imposed by IRA command from above. Rank-and-file members of the IRA remained hostile.
On 11 November, members of the unionist Ulster Defense Association (UDA), wearing poppies, "invaded" the mainly catholic New Lodge estate in Belfast. The incident saw the first civilian fatality in the troubles since 1998: a Protestant teenager, Gary Sloan, who was apparently killed while "throwing away" a pipe-bomb during a confrontation with Catholic youths. The following day, 400 riot police were deployed to allow Catholic children to attend their primary school in the ultra- sensitive area of Ardoyne, also in Belfast.
The IRA ceasefire continues to hold. The Sinn Fein leadership hope to benefit electorally from this in next year's elections in the Republic of Ireland, where more votes may turn the balance of power towards them. In the Northern Irish elections in 2003, Sinn Fein will also hope to consolidate their position as the main party for Catholics, despite the fact that their Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) rivals, led by John Hume, have been taking a non- violent approach for thirty years.
But there are warning signs: many residents in New Lodge area have accused the IRA of being too passive in the face of loyalist intimidation. The cruel slogan that "IRA = I Ran Away," which so discredited the pacifist predecessors of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, may return to the walls of Belfast and Derry. Although the IRA is now handing in its guns, no ceasefire has been forthcoming from loyalist paramilitaries.
Early 2002 sees the 30th anniversary of Bloody Sunday, when British troops opened fire on Catholic demonstrators killing many in cold blood. With the inquiry into the British Army's killing of a dozen civil rights demonstrators stalling, and ex-soldiers refusing to testify for fear of their lives, there is much "ammunition" around to fuel the anger of dissident Republicans.
Meanwhile, unionism is facing its own crisis. The unionist revolt against Trimble is indicative of a polarisation of opinion in the Protestant community.
For many, Blair's "War Against Terrorism" stinks of rank hypocrisy. British Home Secretary David Blunkett is introducing harsh measures, including indefinite interment, for terrorist suspects. These closely resemble laws implemented in the seventies to cope with the Ulster emergency, but now dismantled to help the "peace process." Such apparent double standards accentuate a feeling of betrayal in the province.
The ugly scenes outside the Holy Cross high school in Ardoyne, where Protestant men and women abuse catholic children on their way in and out of school, may seem repellent and unreasonable. But the trouble- makers are a dwindling minority who have some justification in accusing their neighbours of "ethnic cleansing." In a way, they are an extreme example of a general trend in Ulster society: the "exchange" of populations, as the demographic proportion of Catholics surges and the Catholics grow in self-confidence. Ulster's Protestants are a future minority. Even those who tried to wound David Trimble in his bid for re- election may come to thank the sectarian guarantees in the Good Friday Agreement.
British soldiers were attacked on Sunday by Catholic and Protestant rival gangs in north Belfast (Photo:AP)

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