22 - 28 November 2001
Issue No.561
|
Al-Ahram Weekly Online 22 - 28 November 2001 Issue No.561 |
||
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Current issue | Previous issue | Site map | ||
Meanwhile, back in Islamabad
As a new regime for Afghanistan is brokered, Pakistan continues to speak out. But its voice is going increasingly unheard. Iffat Malik writes from Islamabad
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf could not have imagined that within just five days the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan would change so dramatically, and with such serious implications for Pakistan.
NA forces hover outside a building in Jalalabad, where Afghan leaders from different factions were meeting on Sunday
(photo: AFP and AP)
After withstanding heavier and heavier US bombardment for five weeks, the Taliban had acquired an almost rock- like image -- keep pounding, but they won't shift. Their sudden collapse, therefore, came as a shock.
On Saturday 10 November, the Taliban lost the vital northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif. Within days, they had evacuated Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad and many of the provinces they once held.
In Mazar-i Sharif, Kabul and other northern areas, they were replaced by their long-time opponents, the Northern Alliance. In the Pashtun-dominated south, local ex-Mujahidin commanders reasserted their authority. The Taliban continue to hold some provinces around Kandahar and are still a viable fighting force. But the days of their government in Afghanistan are definitely over.
Much of this is bad news for Pakistan. It could lead to both immediate and long-term problems for the country. The most immediate is a possible influx of Taliban Mujahidin into Pakistan, fleeing to escape Northern Alliance retribution. President Musharraf especially wants to ensure that senior Taliban and Al-Qa'eda officials do not become guests of Pakistan. Should they do so, Washington would pressure him to capture them, and if he couldn't Pakistan could suffer the nightmarish scenario of a US bombardment of the country's tribal areas. The border must be sealed.
But that is easier said than done. Pakistan's border with Afghanistan is highly porous. It runs for several hundred kilometres, and for much of that length has no guards, fencing or even marking. The Pakistan army has deployed extra forces, as well as tanks, along some points in an effort to prevent 'undesirables' crossing. But the effect of their presence will be more symbolic than real.
In supporting the American campaign, Pakistan abandoned its long policy of backing the Taliban. It accepted the new political landscape. But it repeatedly called for a broad-based government to replace the ousted regime. Islamabad's worst nightmare is that the Taliban will be succeeded by the Northern Alliance -- bitter enemies of Pakistan, as well as the Taliban.
President Musharraf was, therefore, less than delighted when the Northern Alliance entered Kabul. Since then, he and Foreign Office spokesmen have frantically warned of a repetition of the carnage and massive human rights violations that took place last time the Northern Alliance reigned over Kabul. Musharraf wants Kabul to be a demilitarised zone, and the UN to send an international peace-keeping force. He has also stressed again the need for a broad coalition government.
Musharraf can take some comfort from the fact that both the US and UN agree with him. But alas for Musharraf, that may not be enough.
Islamabad wants Pashtuns in any future Afghan government. That would be Pakistan's only hope of establishing working relations with (and possibly having some influence over) whoever rules Afghanistan next. The problem is that the Taliban are also Pashtun. They have just been ousted from power. That will make it hard for other Pashtuns to feature prominently in any post-Taliban set up. There is also much distrust, even between non-Taliban Pashtuns and the ethnic groups that dominate the Northern Alliance.
Nor is the alternative scenario to broad-based government or Northern Alliance domination -- civil war -- any good to Pakistan. History shows that wars in Afghanistan never remain confined to that country. Pakistan inevitably would become involved: a base for operations, a haven for refugees -- perhaps worse. But with different factions taking control of different parts of Afghanistan, civil war is a very real possibility.
Islamabad wants to ensure that an anti-Pakistan government is not established in Afghanistan, but its power to do so has considerably declined. While the Taliban resisted, Pakistan was vital to
the US military campaign against them and Musharraf had some clout. But now that the Taliban are penned in a few southern provinces, the US war machine no longer depends on Pakistani bases and airspace. Pakistan has lost what say it had in Afghanistan's future.
That Pakistan's support is no longer crucial will have another negative effect. All the international attention and aid Pakistan was receiving in recent weeks stemmed from its pivotal role.
Logic dictates that this will now stop. The international community will not turn its back on the Musharraf government, but it will hardly woo it as it did before. Pakistan can expect to get little more in aid and trade concessions than it has already been pledged.
All this could rebound on Musharraf. Ordinary Pakistanis are already questioning what his policy of cooperation with the US has achieved. They look at the Northern Alliance establishing itself in Kabul and what they perceive to be the paltry material benefits reaped by Pakistan -- and they are not impressed.
Luckily for the president, though, the main source of potential opposition to him at home has largely fallen silent with the flight of the Taliban. Their defeat has taken the wind out of the sails of the religious parties. The old defiant calls to wage jihad and fight the Americans are now nowhere to be heard. Sufi Muhammad, leader of the religious group Tehreek-e-Nifaz-e- Shariah Muhammadi, which recruited a 10,000-plus strong militia to cross into Afghanistan, was last seen haplessly moving about the border, desperately trying to re-enter Pakistan.
The other bonus for Musharraf is that Pakistan is no longer seen as a hotbed of unrest. Even before last week's dramatic developments, anti-government and anti-US protests were muted, confined to certain small groups. Now even those have gone quiet. As a result, foreigners who fled from the country are beginning to return. Several missions have called their staff back; others plan to do so within the next few weeks.
Stability will also, it is hoped, halt the rapid economic decline brought about by the crisis in the region. Pakistan's economy has suffered heavily in the last couple of months -- an estimated $1 billion has been lost in falling export orders, mass cancellations of commercial flights, crippling war risk insurance and loss of investor confidence. Now the slow process of economic recovery should be able to start.
As Afghanistan's story enters a new chapter, Pakistan will watch events unfold with concern and more than a little apprehension. Islamabad is praying for the best - peace, stability, a neutral government. But it fears the worst.
© Copyright Al-Ahram Weekly. All rights reserved
 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
| ARCHIVES Letter from the Editor Editorial Board Subscription Advertise! |
WEEKLY ONLINE: www.ahram.org.eg/weekly Updated every Saturday at 11.00 GMT, 2pm local time weeklyweb@ahram.org.eg |
 Al-Ahram Organisation |
Recommend this page