13 - 19 December 2001
Issue No.564
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 13 - 19 December 2001 Issue No.564 |
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Uneasy bedfellows
US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to Ankara last week was preceded by conflicting signals from the Turkish government. And, as Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara, cooperation with the United States may well hinge on the state of the Turkish economy
The prospect of another full-scale Turkish- American military co-operation akin to that of the Gulf War seems increasingly slim. Whereas the target then, as now, was Iraq, Ankara is more cautious, these days of sanctioning or abetting US military action against Baghdad. During the Gulf War Turkey complied with UN sanctions against Iraq and opened its bases to the US-led coalition's warplanes but refused to send troops to participate in the fighting. Over the last decade Ankara has grudgingly allowed US and British war-planes to continue to fly patrols over northern Iraq from the Incirlik airbase in southeastern Turkey. But in recent years, Ankara has tried to boost economic ties with Iraq, sending trade delegations to Baghdad, turning a blind eye to the resurgence in cross-border trade and calling for an easing of sanctions. Turkish officials candidly admit they fear that a renewed military campaign against Iraq would not only reduce cross-border trade, thus dealing a further blow to Turkey's already battered economy, but also trigger the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq, which could fuel separatist ambitions amongst Turkey's already restive Kurdish population.
"It's easy for the Americans," said a Turkish government official. "They can hit Saddam, protect their oil supplies and go away again. But we have to live here. Iraq is always going to be our neighbour."
Speaking in Ankara, having just met with Turkish government officials, Powell denied that he had asked for their support in a forthcoming military campaign against Baghdad.
"President Bush has made no decision with respect to what the next phase in our campaign against terrorism might be," he said.
However, Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem confirmed that Iraq had been discussed and that Turkey and the US were engaged in what he described as a "substantial dialogue" over Iraq. But he refused to give details about a possible strike against Iraq.
"I would not comment on speculations," he said. "But nobody would like to see trouble in their neighbourhood."
However, other Turkish officials have begun dropping hints that Ankara might be prepared to ease its opposition to a US strike against Baghdad if the US could produce enough evidence of Iraq's complicity in international terrorism.
"New conditions could bring new evaluations onto the agenda," said Turkish Defence Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu.
Privately, Turkish officials admit that although a military operation against Iraq would be unpopular with the Turkish public, Turkey cannot afford to antagonise the US. Washington is reported to have offered to wipe out $7 billion in Turkish debts to the US for purchases of military hardware under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme in return for Ankara's political support in the wake of the 11 September attacks. Washington also played a key role in persuading the International Monetary Fund to increase its financial aid to Turkey from $19 billion to $29 billion, which makes up approximately a fifth of the annual Turkish Gross National Product. This is at a time when economists have predicted that, by the end of 2001, the Turkish economy will have shrunk by 8.5 per cent. Tax revenues are expected to decline steeply, and an estimated 1.5 million Turks have become unemployed in the past nine months. Without the IMF funds, the Turkish government would find it very difficult to balance its budget and could be forced to default on its foreign loans.
And despite last week's resumption of talks between the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots over the future of the divided island, most Turks are still sceptical about the prospects for settling the 27-year- old dispute before June 2002, when the Greek Cypriots are expected to be granted EU membership. Ankara has consistently warned that, should the Greek Cypriots enter the EU before the Cyprus problem has been settled it will annex the Turkish-Cypriot- administered part of the island.
"If we annex northern Cyprus, then we are sure that the EU will apply an arms embargo," said a military source. "We can't afford to antagonise the US as well."
One of the main motives underlying the increasingly close military relations between Turkey and Israel in the late 1990s was the hope that it would facilitate cooperation with Israel's own highly developed defence industry while also serving as a backdoor through which Ankara could access US military technology. While there were hopes that the Middle East peace process could eventually produce results, it was possible for the Turkish government to argue that closer ties with Israel would not damage Turkey's support for the Palestinians.
But recently, Turkey's relations with Israel have become increasingly strained by the indiscriminate ferocity of the Israeli government's military attacks on Palestinians. Last week, in the first indication that Ankara was abandoning its policy of trying to remain equidistant between Israel and the Palestinians, Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit harshly condemned the killing of Palestinian civilians by Israeli forces and reiterated Turkish support for the Palestinians' right to statehood.
"Sharon's insistence that there must a cease-fire before negotiations can begin is unrealistic," he said. "There are two states there. Israel must accept this and respect the Palestinians' right to life."
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