13 - 19 December 2001
Issue No.564
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 13 - 19 December 2001 Issue No.564 |
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A few bare facts
George Giacaman* reckons with reality
Much of media coverage of the present Israeli Palestinian conflict disregards many essential truths. Here are some guidelines audiences will need to understand what is happening.
The West Bank and Gaza, including East Jerusalem, are still occupied territories, a phrase that has disappeared from the political lexicon describing the conflict, even though it refers to the official position of the vast majority of countries in the world.
Areas under the control of the Palestinian Authority (PA) comprise less than 20 per cent of the total area of the West Bank and Gaza. The PA is in charge of the population, but has no sovereignty over land or borders.
Military occupation, by definition, involves various types of violence: it violates rights and due process; direct force is its main instrument of rule. Israel is the last occupying power in the world: an anachronism.
The present uprising addressed Israeli occupation and, indirectly, the PA; the latter because of its inability to end occupation and its authoritarianism, inept rule, and corruption.
Still, despite Arafat's many failings, the Palestinians will refuse his removal from power -- the Sharon government's apparent aim before installing a more pliable "leadership." Any non- elected group that comes to power through Israel's agency will lack legitimacy and be viewed as a body of quislings.
Arafat's problems began when he rejected the package Ehud Barak offered in the summer of 2000 at Camp David. It would have given Palestinians a non-sovereign, truncated "state" in return for a final termination of all rights and claims in historical Palestine, including the right of return.
Even if Arafat had accepted the deal, it is not clear that Barak could have imposed it internally. This is now conveniently forgotten -- as is the fact that, in Taba, in January 2001, both sides were close to reaching an agreement when Barak abruptly ended the negotiations, having realised that nothing could save him in the elections that brought Sharon to power.
In the subsequent hiatus, and up to the present, one basic fact is always overlooked: the Israeli- Palestinian conflict will be solved if Israel withdraws to the 1967 borders in accordance with the "land for peace" formula embodied in relevant UN resolutions. This is still the official position of the US, Europe, and the majority of countries in the world.
What prevents this withdrawal? Two main factors stand out.
First, public opinion in Israel has been drifting to the right for the past two decades. As a result, the "Eretz Israel" ideology is increasingly influential in Israeli politics, largely because Israel has been able to occupy Palestinian land for 34 years with impunity.
Israel has managed to neutralise external pressure. Its friends in the US have been far too successful in imposing various Israeli agendas, to the detriment of peace, stability, and a fair compromise.
Indeed, the late Yitzhak Rabin was a victim of this success, since it contributed to the growth of the extreme right wing in Israel, to which his assassin belonged.
Second, the Oslo process was designed to be a "negotiated process." An important fact is masked by this empty phrase. It is this: negotiations will take place under a balance of power wholly in Israel's favour, with US support at every turn, while settlements increase and Israel's colonial drive continues unabated. If the "process" stalls or fails, it is obvious who the villains are.
Sharon, who opposed the Oslo accords, now wants to destroy them, along with the PA as a nucleus for a sovereign state, unless he can turn Yasser Arafat into an accessory to his security apparatus. If he manages, "negotiations" could follow in which the Palestinians accept what Israel is willing to give. This is the "deal" he is offering.
Sharon appears to have outmanoeuvred Arafat, partially as a result of the attacks inside Israel. As for Palestinian civilians, including more than 250 children, killed by Israeli fire since 29 September 2000: they do not count.
Where will it all end? There is no clear answer, except this: more of the same, with or without Arafat -- unless the US and Europe press their official position. The West Bank and Gaza are occupied territories and Israel must evacuate them in return for peace. Nothing short of this will be a stable solution. But who is interested in stability, let alone peace?
*The writer is dean of graduate studies at Birzeit University, Palestine, and co-founder of the Palestinian Institute for the Study of Democracy (Muwatin).
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