3 - 9 January 2002
Issue No.567
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 3 - 9 January 2002 Issue No.567 |
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Seeking havoc
Israeli pressure on the Bush administration to launch an attack on Iraq must be ignored, writes Ibrahim Nafie
The Bush administration is assessing its next steps in the war against terrorism. One thing, though, is certain: the US will not rest content with crushing the Taliban and liquidating Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qa'eda. But as yet Washington has yet to specify the next stages of the war.
Within the framework of conflicting interests a US strike on Iraq must remain a possibility, not least because of the pressure being exerted by Israel for such a course of action. And while it is true that Washington considered Saddam Hussein regime as a threat to American national security, and its interests in the Gulf, throughout the 1990s, and that American planes have routinely attacked military targets in Iraq, neither the Bush senior nor Clinton administrations considered using a large- scale campaign to remove Saddam Hussein.
Israeli attempts to foment such a campaign are a symptom of the hysterical approach Israel's politicians have routinely adopted towards security. It encourages the mistaken belief that its security is subject to constant threats to justify its continuing occupation of Arab land in Palestine and Syria, yet it is the occupation that places Israel in a state of conflict with its Arab neighbours. Yet instead of resolving the conflict, and returning occupied land, Israel has chosen violence, placing itself in an unhappy confrontation with most of the international community.
Israel's anti-Iraqi incitement of America is a result of this mindset. Immediately after 11 September Israel tried to find a role for itself in the war on terrorism and was hugely disappointed when the American administration kept it firmly out. Yet Israel did not stop in its attempts, and has been pushing the line that the US must get rid of the Saddam regime. Israel has its own agenda, of course, topping which is the creation of new tensions in the Middle East that will distract attention from its continuing occupation of Arab land and oppression of Palestinian people.
Another Israeli objective is to disrupt Arab- American relations. Arab countries, regardless of their position towards the regime in Baghdad, oppose strikes against Iraq (or any other Arab state) in the next stage of the war on terrorism.
Reservations within the Arab world cannot be discounted. First, of course, is the fact that the Iraqi leadership had no role in 11 September or the anthrax attacks in the US, so there can be no justification for any strikes. Many parties, including the EU, Russia and China, oppose any broadening of the war without firm evidence. France demands unequivocal evidence of involvement in 11 September atrocities, acceptable to the UN, before any future target is attacked; that military action be preceded by calling the state in question to take measures against terrorism; and that, should this fail, any further action be dependent on gaining Security Council support.
Nor is it likely that any military operation against Iraq will follow the "Afghan scenario". Such a strategy would involve supporting and arming local groups, driving them to stage land operations against the regime, aided by American air strikes. In Iraq the opposition is too weak to confront the government and the Iraqi armed forces, especially the elite Republican Guard. The Iraqi people will not readily accept such intervention, moreover, even if it has reservations about its government -- a situation radically different from that of Afghanistan, where there existed a powerful armed opposition and people fed up with the Taliban and years and years of war among various factions.
But Israel's incitement of America has not been restricted to Iraq. They extend, if only at the political level, to Hizbullah in Lebanon, an organisation with which, following its withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Israel feels it has a score to settle. Fortunately, with American political circles, there is an increasing awareness of the dangers of Israel's attempts to impose its own agenda on US policy.
A few days ago, during a televised seminar, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and the Israeli politician Dan Meridor discussed the next stage of the war on terrorism. Meridor, predictably, pushed the usual Israeli anti-Arab line. But the American official responded sharply, emphasising the fact that the American administration has yet to decide on the next stage. Armitage also pointed out that the first stage was not yet over: as soon as it is completed, he said, it will be reassessed; and a decision will be made on the basis of that assessment. Israel evidently must realise that its attempts to exercise pressures on America might actually boomerang.
Another thing Israel should realise is that it is in its own interest to stop its current war-mongering, for any military action against Iraq will inevitably lead to a unified Arab position against it -- a development that would be in the interests of neither the US, nor the West in general. Nor is it in Israel's long term interest that any conflict occur between the US and the Arab states. President Hosni Mubarak has repeatedly warned that regional instability is in the interest of no one, not even Israel. At the same time, Israel must realise that its attempts to drive the US to exercise pressure on Egypt, through the agency of the Jewish lobby in Washington -- the main objective being to curtail American military aid to Egypt -- will only lead to greater extremism and instability across the region.
The American administration happens to have a far more realistic assessment than Israel of the importance of Egypt as a regional power, a pioneer of peace and an agent of stability. Egypt has friends in the Congress, too; and one has plenty of faith in President Bush and his administration's interest in continuing its special relationship with Egypt.
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