10 - 16 January 2002
Issue No.568
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 10 - 16 January 2002 Issue No.568 |
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Time to pull together
We can all help put the economy back on track, writes Ibrahim Nafie
Our current economic crisis cannot be attributed solely to the events of 11 September, however indirectly. Rather, the aftermath of 11 September has brought to the fore and exacerbated the cumulative effect of certain older detrimental modes of behaviour. What we most need at present is a code of conduct to serve as our compass in the coming phase.
True, 11 September plunged the world into a morass of interrelated crises, and it will be some time before calm is restored. The global crises in tourism, the stock market, world trade and international airlines are only the most recent plights to rock the global economy.
Naturally, Egypt has been buffeted severely. The aftermath of 11 September brought a 50 per cent drop in hotel occupancy, leading some to forecast only $2.6 billion in income from tourism by mid-'02. Global recession has also led to a decline in the demand for Egyptian exports: in the petroleum sector, the price per barrel has plunged below $20. As a consequence of such factors, Egypt's foreign currency deficit has risen by approximately $3 billion, giving rise to predictions that the economic growth rate will fall to below two per cent -- less than half the rate in previous years.
These facts, however, do not exonerate any of us. This is not the time to air our personal woes or assail the state with destructive criticism. The government is doing everything it can to devise mechanisms that will help steer the economy through difficult straits, and we all must transcend our individual grievances and chip in. Earlier generations bequeathed to us the flag of a proud and independent nation, and ours is more than capable of preserving this legacy. It is, therefore, unacceptable at this crucial juncture to see a reversion to the very behaviour that led to the crisis in the first place.
The importance of the tourist industry as a source of foreign currency cannot be underestimated. Last year, income from the Suez Canal stood at $1.8 billion, oil revenues brought in $2.6 billion and remittances from abroad were below $4 billion. By contrast, income from the 5.5 million tourists we hosted came to $4.2 billion. Nor should we forget that tourism is a major source of employment, and creating jobs is one of our highest national priorities. An important study of this sector revealed that every 100 million tourist dollars generate 33,000 new jobs.
Although the post-11 September period brought a sharp decline in tourism, the combined efforts of all those engaged in this sector have succeeded in reversing the downward trend. Tour groups are now returning in increasing numbers, enabling many who had been laid off temporarily to return to their jobs. This sector's greatest success, however, has been to attract Arab tourists back to Egypt. As a result, tourism from the Arab world is now allowing the industry to recoup a significant portion of the losses it sustained.
Unfortunately, our efforts, here, failed to realise their fullest potential. Still fixed in the minds of many Egyptians is that image of the Saudi prince or businessman with suitcases full of cash who must be squeezed for every last piastre. Nothing could be further from reality. Most Arab tourists are average middle-class citizens who happen to have enough money for a trip to Egypt. Like tourists everywhere, they expect high-quality service and respect; they do not expect to be assailed at every corner like geese with golden eggs.
In the past, such attitudes drove a significant proportion of Arab tourism to other destinations in the region. We must now counter this behaviour by creating as welcome and hospitable a climate as possible. We must also compound our efforts to diversify the types of tourism we offer and, perhaps, to review prices. More important still is the need to improve the overall quality of service, thus rendering Egypt a more attractive destination for foreign and domestic tourism alike.
It is common knowledge that private currency speculation has been a major cause of the recent decline of the Egyptian pound. The government alone cannot counter such irresponsible behaviour, which plays into the hands of those who seek to wreak havoc on the Egyptian economy and deprive thousands of potential job opportunities. All those who have access to foreign currency have an onus to bear. This applies in particular to Egyptians working abroad, who should know better than to heed the sceptics who advise them not to remit their earnings to Egypt, and to use illegitimate money-changing channels.
Egyptian industry, which had made such tremendous progress, has entered an arduous phase due to restrictions imposed by the GATT. Billions of pounds of hard-earned savings that people have poured into this sector are now at risk, and we must all do our utmost to salvage these investments. The task is not difficult. All that is required is that we transform the motto of promoting domestic industry into a practical day-to-day mode of behaviour. Remember that, every time we buy a product made in Egypt, we are ensuring jobs for our fellow citizens. Simultaneously, Egyptian manufacturers must focus more seriously on developing production, quality and prices, and importers should refrain from importing those ubiquitous knickknacks for which decent domestic equivalents are readily available. Finally, we should all feel compelled to curb the reckless consumer frenzy that could endanger our future -- quite literally.
All of us have played a part in bringing about the current economic crisis. Here, I have only mentioned a few ways that we can change our economic behaviour. I have no doubt that the Egyptian people, who have always been prepared to make the most difficult sacrifices for their nation, are up to this task.
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