10 - 16 January 2002
Issue No.568
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 10 - 16 January 2002 Issue No.568 |
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In the interim
Before it attacks Saddam Hussein, the US needs to make some allies, writes Mamoun Fandy*
The deep distrust -- and in some quarters, outright hostility -- that has marked relations between the US and the Muslim world since 11 September poses a problem for the United States as it enters the next phase of its war against terrorism.
The Muslim world's reaction to the "smoking gun" tape of Osama Bin Laden, in which the terrorist leader gloats about the destruction of the World Trade Center, highlighted the problem. Although a majority of Muslims think Bin Laden orchestrated the attack, significant segments of Muslim public opinion believe the tape is a fabrication. This is in keeping with the dominant perception in the Muslim world -- whether correct or not -- that the US is targeting Muslims in its war against terrorism and, accordingly, killing disproportionate numbers of them.
The way the US has conducted the war in Afghanistan and other recent conflicts reinforces such perceptions. Its reliance on air power and hi-tech weaponry in the Gulf War and in Kosovo resulted in few American combat casualties and a far greater loss of life on the ground, particularly in Iraq. In Afghanistan, Muslims killed Muslims on the ground, while US air power killed Muslims from above. Again, US casualties have been minimal, while estimates of Muslims killed are not being publicised for political reasons.
Past relations with America, too, have left Muslims feeling bitter and betrayed. The sudden US withdrawal from South Asia in the late 1980s after the defeat of the Soviet Union raised doubts regarding the sincerity of America's commitment to rebuilding Muslim societies. And as they read the list of future targets in the US war against terrorism, they see only Muslim states and societies: Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Lebanon, Indonesia and areas of the Philippines. This perception of persecution enrages many Muslims, as the Arab press indicates abundantly. Opinion articles fearful of a clash of civilisations between the Christian West and the Muslim East litter respected mainstream newspapers such as Egypt's Al-Ahram or Saudi Arabia's Al-Sharq Al- Awsat. Even when President Bush endorsed the creation of a Palestinian state, many newspapers in the Muslim world warned against "believing America's promises." Commentators counseled their readers to wait and see. Thus far, they seem to be right.
To defeat terrorism, Washington needs to reverse this reflexive distrust of its motives and aims in Muslim and Arab societies. This will require nothing short of a vigourous public diplomacy campaign in the Muslim world, a task greatly complicated by the escalation of violence in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict. Arab public opinion matters, and it is currently very angry at Israel's military conduct in the occupied territories and its treatment of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. US engagement in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking could go a long way toward restoring this lost trust.
But the worst move the US could make, one that would surely deepen Muslim distrust, would be to attack Iraq, as some advisers of President Bush are urging. In the best of cases, such an action would jeopardise the sustainability of the US anti-terrorism campaign very seriously.
Make no mistake about it. Saddam Hussein is a menace to both world peace and to the stability of the Middle East. But now is the worst possible moment to attack him. First, the US must persuade Arabs and Muslims that striking Hussein would not constitute an attack on Islam. The key to US victory in Afghanistan was the cooperation of Afghans who detested the Taliban. We need to make new friends in Iraq who loathe Hussein (since he wiped out the US-backed Iraqi opposition in 1996) and win the support of Arab and Muslim public opinion worldwide. So far, the US has failed to do so.
Mainstream Muslims clearly understood why the United States went to war in Afghanistan in its attempt to capture Bin Laden and eliminate Al-Qa'eda. It was a matter of self- defence. But Iraq has not attacked Americans on US soil. A case can certainly be made that Hussein is a worthy target because his regime has abused its citizens and developed weapons of mass destruction that threaten regional stability. But the case is separate from the US campaign against terrorism. If the US takes on Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism, many Muslims will believe it is merely entering another phase of the war against Islam.
A strong US role in rebuilding Afghanistan will help erase this perception and justify going after Iraq. Washington needs to convince Iraqis that their country can benefit from Hussein's fall just as Afghanistan stood to benefit from the defeat of the Taliban. In Afghanistan, critics of the US campaign have charged that military victory outpaced the politics of creating a sustainable alternative to the Taliban. The sluggish delivery of humanitarian aid complicated the situation further. Thus, it is important that the US do everything in its power to ensure that the interim government in Afghanistan works well and gains the confidence of Afghans. It is equally important that Afghans believe the US is there to stay. If the US wants Muslims to believe Bin Laden is a force of evil and destruction, it must also convince them that it is a force of good. Helping rebuild Afghanistan will go a long way toward creating such an impression. America needs the intellectual equivalent of the Northern Alliance, an army of Muslim intellectuals, to fight the war for the hearts and the minds of Muslims. Building such support will take time, but if America intends to sustain its campaign against terrorism, it should start courting Muslim and Arab public opinion now. It certainly should not attack another Muslim country.
* The writer is a professor of politics at the Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.
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