10 - 16 January 2002
Issue No.568
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 10 - 16 January 2002 Issue No.568 |
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Only if you insist
Turkish officials are increasingly concerned that Washington, riding high on its victory against the Taliban, may now launch an assault on Baghdad. Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara
A delegation of nine US senators arrived in Ankara last Friday to try to assuage Turkish fears that Washington may unilaterally extend its "war against terrorism" by launching a military campaign to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Turkey has always opposed such a move, believing that it would not only destabilise the entire Middle East but that it could lead to the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Ankara fears that independence for Iraqi Kurds would further fuel nationalist sentiments among Turkey's own 12 million Kurds.
US senators after their meeting with Turkey's Foreign Minister Ismail Cem
In late December, General Hussein Kivrikoglu, the chief of staff of Turkey's powerful military, effectively accused hawks in the US administration of trying to use the 11 September attacks as an excuse to settle old scores.
"Has Iraq does anything new recently?" he asked. "Or is this just an attempt to settle old scores from ten years ago? Of course Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. But so do North Korea, Iran, Russia, the US and some European countries."
US Senator John McCain tried to allay Ankara's concerns after a meeting with Turkish government officials on Friday.
"Any US action vis-à-vis Iraq would be taken only after a period of consultation, and hopefully cooperation, with the Turkish government in particular and also with other moderate governments in the region," he said.
Senator Joseph Lieberman, however, left Turkey with little doubt as to his country's ultimate objectives.
"I expressed the view, which I think is widely shared in the United States, that the war against terrorism will not end until Hussein is removed from power in Baghdad," he said.
On Saturday, Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit appeared on television and insisted that Turkey would remain opposed to any US military action against Baghdad.
"There has been no change in our policy towards Iraq," he said, adding that the future of Hussein's presidency was an internal matter to be decided by the people of Iraq.
Ecevit is due to visit Washington from 14-18 January and is scheduled to meet with US President George Bush on 16 January. The future of Iraq will be at the top of the agenda.
If Washington does decide to launch a military campaign against Baghdad, it is unlikely to ask Turkish forces to participate in air or ground campaigns. On the other hand, US military planners will undoubtedly want to know whether US planes will have assured access to the large Turkish air base in Incirlik in southeastern Turkey before they draw up any detailed plans for a military campaign against Saddam Hussein. Turkish officials are privately admitting that despite Ecevit's public statements, it will be almost impossible for Ankara to refuse a direct request from Washington to use Turkish facilities.
The pressure on Ankara to capitulate to Washington's wishes is to do with recent US help in bailing out the Turkish economy. Before 11 September, Turkey's economy appeared to be in freefall. The currency had collapsed, business had virtually ground to a halt and over a million people had lost their jobs. The US government, however, had refused to sanction any fresh IMF loans to Ankara until the Turkish government implemented radical economic reforms and tackled endemic corruption.
Everything changed on 11 September, however. Turkey was one of the first Muslim countries to offer military support to the US campaign against the Taliban. In return, the Bush administration, which was desperately trying to persuade Muslims that its war against terrorism was not directed against Islam, quietly assured Ankara that it would sanction fresh IMF loans to prop up the Turkish economy.
Later this month the IMF is expected to approve another $12 billion in loans, taking its total disbursement to Turkey to $31 billion over the last two years, approximately 20 percent of Turkey's annual gross national product. Although the Turkish economy is still predicted to have shrunk by 8.5 percent in 2001, the prospect of fresh IMF loans has created a new confidence that the worst of the recession is over and led to hopes that there will at least a partial recovery in 2002.
"11 September saved us economically," commented a government official. "Before the attacks and the promise of more IMF money, we were heading for a disaster that would have made Argentina's current crisis look like a picnic. If the US comes to us now and asks to use our air bases for an attack on Iraq, we will have to pay them back for their help. Our only hope is that other countries can persuade the US to call off the attack before they even ask for our help. We can't refuse them."
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