24 - 30 January 2002
Issue No.570
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 24 - 30 January 2002 Issue No.570 |
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Playing favourites
Eager to squeeze both India and Pakistan under the US umbrella, Powell was all things to all people on his recent visit to the subcontinent, writes Sudhanshu Ranjan from New Delhi
India's relations with the United States are a saga of ups and downs, with more downs than ups. But 11 September brought about a volte-face in international relations. Even though Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf rose above local anti-American sentiment to back the US-led "war on terrorism," the US has made it clear that it does not trust Pakistan enough to antagonise India.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Pakistan and India from 16 to 19 January in a bid to defuse tensions between the two countries. Statements made by Powell in Delhi explicitly endorsed India's position on its disputes with Pakistan for the first time in the last five decades.
At a news conference in Delhi on 18 January, Powell made it plain that there was need for "further action" regarding a list of 20 terrorists and criminals issued by India before the two countries could resume dialogue: "President Musharraf has said he will examine [the demand for those listed] and it is an issue of continuing discussions. I think we are on a path that could lead to the restoration of dialogue. But it will take further action before we can really start walking down that path more aggressively."
Asked whether the US had given India any assurances regarding its concerns about cross-border terrorism that were enough for a resumption of Indo-Pakistani dialogue, Powell said, "It is a judgment for the Indian government to make. There are assurances and their assessment. It is not for me to provide any assurance."
On the issue of Pakistan's demand for American mediation between the two sides, Powell toed the Indian line, making it clear that the US feels that India and Pakistan need to resolve their differences through direct talks. Such statements mark a turning point in Indo-US relations, as the US has always opposed India in international forums. When India gained independence in 1947, America presumed that it would join the US bloc and, therefore, rolled out the red carpet for Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's visit to the US in 1949. But Washington was utterly disappointed when Nehru, who floated the idea of non-alignment, talked of neutrality.
Caught up in the fury of anti-communist zeal, US President Dwight Eisenhower and Secretary of State John Foster Dulles refused to digest the doctrine of neutrality, putting forward the "either you are with us or against us" principle that has again gained such currency in the wake of 11 September. Since then, the US has aggressively supported Pakistan against India. India managed to avoid a plebiscite on Kashmir through the former USSR's veto in the United Nations Security Council.
In 1956 India antagonised the Soviet Union by criticising its intervention in Hungary. In retaliation, the Soviet Union did not use its veto power in support of India that year and abstained instead. Sufficiently humbled, India was forced to recognise the critical role the Soviet Union played on its behalf -- a realisation that ultimately culminated in the 1971 India-USSR friendship treaty. This, of course, further distanced the US from India.
The dismantling of the USSR in 1991 transformed the geopolitical map into a unipolar world. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin is a person US President George W Bush would like to have in a foxhole. With international alignments changing so quickly, it is hardly surprising that Indo-US relations would ride the wave.
Indian troops patrol the tense border between India and Pakistan on the eve of US Secretary of State Colin Powell's tour of the region (photo: AP)
India and the US now want to develop a strategic friendship, and high-level delegations are shuttling between Washington and Delhi with increasing frequency. Close on the heels of Indian Home Minister L K Advani's visit to the US, Defence Minister George Fernandes arrived in Washington in a bid to expand long-term military ties, despite niggling over short-term differences arising from regional tensions. After holding discussions with his US counterpart, Donald Rumsfeld, the two leaders described the talks as "extensive" and "fruitful," saying that they aimed at securing a firmer footing for a military relationship that has been chimerical at best. In a joint news conference on 18 January in Washington, Fernandes said the talks -- which he described as "a milestone" -- had led him to believe the two countries were in "forward movement."
Rumsfeld announced that the two sides have signed an agreement that would enable the exchange of classified military information. What is more, in a further expansion of security cooperation, the Indian Navy will soon escort American ships carrying valuable military assets through the Malacca Straits -- a major naval choke point on the eastern fringes of the Indian Ocean. A decision on far-reaching Indo-US naval engagement is likely to be announced shortly.
The American request for Indian support for US vessels came just days after 11 September. As it concentrated its naval forces in the Arabian Sea to pursue its war against terrorism, the Bush administration started looking for support from its friends and allies in the region to undertake some of the traditional missions of its own navy. Delhi quietly sought to assess reactions from Southeast Asian nations -- which all turned out to be positive -- and after considerable deliberation, they agreed to the escorts.
The emerging military interaction between India and the US in the Malacca Straits is being described as the first tangible act of strategic cooperation between the navies of the two countries. American policy-makers and ideologues are visiting India in quick succession and Powell's visit coincided with former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's trip to India. In Delhi, Kissinger reiterated that India was poised to become an economic and space power in the twenty-first century; but the ego-stroking does not end there. US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) chief Robert Mueller will arrive in India next week. Hoping to enlist the help of the FBI to put pressure on Pakistan, India will roll out the red carpet to welcome him.
Besides holding talks with Indian intelligence officials, the FBI director will call on Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Home Minister L K Advani and National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra. US diplomats said that Mueller's visit has been "shaping up for quite some time" and is in keeping with the growing interaction at all levels between India and the Bush administration. Indian officials believe that at least one of the men India wants Pakistan to hand over may also be one of the suspects the FBI is looking for in connection with the 11 September strikes.
With tension building up on the Indo-Pakistani border, both countries are desperate to enlist America's support. The US, however, is trying to safeguard both its strategic and market interests. It is, therefore, giving the impression of having effectively shed its prejudices against India.
He came in peace
Although he was brimming with good advice, Colin Powell skilfully skirted the real issues on his whirlwind tour of South Asia. Iffat Malik reports from Islamabad
US Secretary of State Colin Powell was back in South Asia last week, dealing with the aftermath of one conflict and trying to avert another. Powell's tour aimed at establishing the US position on post-Taliban Afghanistan and defusing tensions between India and Pakistan. It was his second trip to the Subcontinent in three months, and his first -- indeed the first visit by a US secretary of state since Henry Kissinger in the mid-1970s -- to Afghanistan.
At the heart of India and Pakistan's brief stand-off is the disputed territory of Kashmir -- more specifically, India's demand that Pakistan stop its support of armed insurrection in Indian Kashmir. Powell's task in mediating between the two was, therefore, helped by President Musharraf's address to the Pakistani nation on 12 January. Billed as a turning point in Pakistani history, Musharraf's address implicitly ruled out anything but "moral, political and diplomatic support" for Kashmiri separatists.
The US secretary of state was, therefore, left with little more to do than stress to the Pakistani president the practical need to follow through the measures he announced to curb religious extremism (including jihadi groups). Even in this, Powell's work was already half-done. In the four days immediately following Musharraf's speech, Pakistani authorities arrested over 2,000 religious activists and sealed up the offices of hundreds of banned groups.
While many of those arrested belonged to sectarian rather than jihadi groups, the latter were also targeted.
The secretary of state commended President Musharraf for his speech and for the action taken. Powell's comments served to ease the intense international pressure heaped on Islamabad since 12 January. Having twice conformed to the wishes of the international community -- first on Afghanistan and now on Kashmir -- Pakistan's government hopes to breathe a sigh of relief and enjoy a period of less intense international attention.
Whether that relief is sustained will, of course, depend on whether the promised crackdown on Kashmiri militants operating from Pakistan is followed through. But if, as appears the case, Pakistan's resolve to crack down is genuine, Islamabad will be in a position to make demands of its own.
President Musharraf did just that in his 12 January speech when he appealed to the international community, and particularly to the US, to intervene in resolving the Kashmir dispute. That plea was diplomatically rejected by Colin Powell, however. He said the US would not mediate between India and Pakistan and that a solution could only come through the two talking with each other bilaterally. He did, however, add that the US would be willing to facilitate India-Pakistan dialogue if requested to do so by both sides.
In other words: no US involvement in Kashmir.
The American refusal to get involved was no doubt a disappointment to Musharraf, but he must have welcomed President Bush's invitation -- conveyed by Powell -- for him to visit Washington "in the very near future." The invitation, which comes despite the fact that Islamabad's usefulness in the Afghan conflict has passed its peak, may be a sign of a long-term US commitment to its new relationship with Pakistan.
Though it is too early to draw definite conclusions, hopes abound in Pakistan that the US will continue its warm relations with Islamabad even though it no longer needs Pakistan's help. Powell's announcement that USAID would be reopening its mission in Pakistan -- closed in the wake of the 1998 nuclear tests -- helped encourage this sentiment. Meanwhile, Powell's rhetoric during his trip seemed to suggest that, in his next stop in New Delhi, he would try to convince India that Pakistan was sincere. Powell intimated that he would inform the Indians that President Musharraf was following through his speech with "concrete action," and try and convince New Delhi that the time is right to open dialogue with Pakistan and de-escalate tension.
Before doing that, however, Secretary Powell paid a brief five-hour visit to Afghanistan. Security for Powell's visit to Kabul was, not surprisingly, very tight. In the Afghan capital, Secretary Powell held separate meetings with the head of the interim government, Hamid Karzai, and his opposite number in the new administration, Abdullah Abdullah.
Powell told the Afghans that the US was committed to Afghanistan in the long-term. The Afghans, in response, emphasised that they needed massive outside help for reconstruction. As if to graphically illustrate the point, the Afghan palace was plunged into darkness by a power cut just as Powell and Karzai were to address those present.
Karzai's and Powell's speeches reflected their somewhat divergent aims. Powell stressed that his presence was proof of American commitment to Afghanistan. Standing next to Karzai in their joint news conference, he promised Afghans that the US "will be with you in this current crisis and in the future." He said the US would soon be releasing millions of dollars of Afghan assets frozen because of sanctions against the Taliban.
Still, despite pledges of support for the rehabilitation of Afghanistan's health care, education and other systems, he did not make any specific announcements about US aid to the country. Powell's omission might be explained by potential plans to detail the aid budget in the more appropriate setting of the conference on reconstruction in Afghanistan, starting on 21 January in Tokyo. An alternative explanation, however, is that having spent billions ridding Afghanistan of the Taliban and Al-Qa'eda, Washington expects its allies -- especially Japan and the European countries -- to come up with the billions required for reconstruction.
Karzai used the media attention accompanying Powell's visit to reassure the international community that fears about corruption ought not to hold them back from giving generously. "Be sure that warlordism is over in Afghanistan," he claimed, adding that his government would exercise fiscal responsibility and root out corruption before it could spread. Karzai's bold promise will be difficult to achieve in practice, however.
Colin Powell also reiterated that the number one US priority in Afghanistan was "pulling up Al-Qa'eda and the Taliban." Implicit in that statement was that the US would not be joining the British-led International Security Assistance Force to maintain peace in Afghanistan.
Powell finished his brief tour of Afghanistan by redesignating the US Liaison Office in Kabul as an embassy. Washington's original diplomatic mission to Kabul was closed in 1989 following the withdrawal of Soviet forces. The US Secretary of State then flew on to India and Nepal for the next leg of his whirlwind tour.
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