Al-Ahram Weekly Online
14 - 20 February 2002
Issue No.573
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Sharon in Washington

Is Arafat the only one with his back to the wall? asks Mohamed Sid-Ahmed

Mohamed Sid-Ahmed On his fourth visit to Washington since taking over the reins of power, Sharon tried to sell the Americans on the idea that Arafat had become "irrelevant." But although President Bush has consistently refused to meet the Palestinian leader since taking office, he stopped short of writing him off altogether. However, he assured Sharon that he would "continue to keep pressure on Mr Arafat to convince him that he must take serious, concrete, real steps to reduce terrorist activities in the Middle East."

Before setting off for Washington, Sharon told Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot that he planned to ask Bush to cut ties with Arafat and promote discussions with other Palestinian leaders in the aim of consolidating their status as possible replacements for Arafat. He cited Ahmed Qere'a and Mahmoud Abbas, as well as security officials Jibril Rajoub and Mohamed Dahlan, as potential "peace partners" who might be prepared to tackle the issue of Palestinian violent groups in a manner more responsive to the requirements of Israel and the United States.

But at his joint press conference with Sharon, Bush avoided touching on the question of alternative leaderships, while at the same time reiterating his commitment to fighting terror wherever it exists and his hope that other leaders, including Arafat, share his commitment. Calling on the Palestinian leader to furnish "a 100 per cent effort" to eliminate terrorism, he also expressed his concern about the plight of average Palestinians who are trying to raise their children and declared that the US would allocate $300 million, through NGOs, to assist them.

Nor was the boycott of Arafat the only item on Sharon's wish list that was not granted. Bush also refused to accede to Sharon's request that organisations under Arafat's direct control, such as Force 17 and Tanzim, be included on the list of terror groups. With the viewpoints of the United States and Israel moving closer together on a number of key issues, Sharon had come to believe that the special relationship between the two states could be still further reinforced as Washington moves towards the second stage of its war against terrorism. The Israeli prime minister went to Washington in the hope that Bush would respond to all his demands with no reservations. But William Burns, assistant secretary of state for Middle East Affairs, declared in Cairo just before Bush met Sharon that Washington will go on dealing with the Palestinian Authority and Arafat, because he is the elected representative of the Palestinian people.

There are signs that Washington is contemplating resuming its role as mediator which had been frozen with the suspension of Anthony Zinni's assignment, especially after the Karine A affair, the freighter seized by Israel in the Red Sea while carrying a load of weapons from an Iranian port to Gaza. It has been announced that CIA chief George Tenet will visit the region in the coming weeks, followed next month by a visit to ten Middle Eastern capitals by US Vice- President Dick Cheney (the visit will not include a meeting with Arafat). Colin Powell, the moderate voice of the Bush administration, has issued his most strongly worded statement yet to Arafat, warning him that he must choose, once and for all, the path of peace rather than war: "He cannot be on the side of the peace camp with the US and its allies and tolerate violence towards Israeli citizens."

True, Israel's foreign minister, Shimon Peres, is still insisting that Israel will not find a substitute for Arafat in its partnership with the Palestinians, and that the Palestinian officials Sharon met before going to Washington (Ahmed Qere'a, Mahmoud Abbas and Khaled Sallam) are representatives of, and not alternatives to, Chairman Arafat. But the election of Defence Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer to the leadership of the Labour Party has cut Peres down to size and, with him, the credibility of his theory that Arafat cannot be replaced. It has also bolstered the status of Israeli hard-liners who say that the Karine A affair has not only smashed Arafat's eligibility as "a partner in the peace process" but has brought to light a dangerous strategic relationship between the Palestinians and Iran.

After 11 September, Sharon declared that global terrorism is not personified only by Bin Laden and Al- Qa'eda, but also by Arafat, the Bin Laden of the Middle East. And if Bush, in his State of the Union address, dubbed North-Korea, Iran and Iraq part of an "axis of evil" that threatened the world, Sharon is using the Karine A affair to talk of a "Hizbullah-Iran- Palestinian triangle" with Iran leading the triangle and putting together a "coalition of terror." Sharon has asked the US president to put pressure on Syria to sever all ties with Hizbullah. Ben-Eliezer, who went to Washington a few days ahead of Sharon, discussed with US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld the possible scenarios in the event of an American attack on Iraq, and requested that Israel be given ample forewarning. There are strong rumours that Iraq, the next target in Bush's war on terror, will be attacked sometime before next May, an event that is sure to plunge the region into yet greater turmoil and unrest.

The reason Washington has not embraced Sharon's demands wholeheartedly is because it has been subjected to pressures from a variety of sources, most notably from the European Union with France at the forefront. French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine criticised the way Washington was putting pressure on Arafat, calling his isolation "another error" that Europe could not go along with. "European countries do not agree with the White House Middle East policy and think it is a mistake to support Ariel Sharon's purely repressive policies," he said. The French foreign minister was also openly critical of what he called Washington's "simplistic" approach which "reduces all the problems in the world to the struggle against terrorism," and said the United States was acting unilaterally without consulting its allies. He described this American attitude as a "problem," and called on European states to speak out more and resist giving up their ideas.

Arab states supported the European line. Saudi Crown Prince Abdallah declared that Europe had a moral and political responsibility towards the region because of its previous colonial role and its close relations with the Arab world. But Israel stands against European participation in the peace process, on the grounds that Europe is not as supportive of Israeli policies as America. Europe totally condemns Israel's policy of assassinating Palestinian activists and considers the establishment of Jewish settlements in the occupied territories illegal.

Arafat is doing all he can to lift the siege that keeps him imprisoned in Ramallah. He is in continuous contact with the world media, meeting regularly with international groups committed to the cause of peace, particularly Israeli. Recently, he published an article in the New York Times in which he condemned terrorism and expressed his readiness to deal with any Israeli leader whatever his history, a clear reference to Sharon. He also said he was ready to consider creative solutions to the problem of the Palestinian refugees, adding that any solution had to take into account Israel's demographic concerns (i.e. a solution that would not threaten the Jewish character of the Jewish state). More recently, he sent a letter to the US president accepting full responsibility for the Karine A affair as well as for the measures he took to contain its effects.

German Foreign Minister Joshka Fischer has studied with a number of peace activists, both Palestinian and Israeli, how to revive an initiative put forward last year by Yasser Abed Rabbo, the present Palestinian minister of culture, and Yossi Beilin, former Israeli minister of justice. Both men agreed that violence and terror will not stop as long as talks are not renewed in a climate of mutual trust. Fischer has decided to visit the Middle East to push the initiative forward.

In his press conference with Sharon, Bush made no mention of Iraq or Iran. He also avoided talking of the nuclear dimension, although Ben-Eliezer said in Washington that Iran, caught in sending weapons to Gaza, would be able to develop nuclear weapons within a period of not more than three years.

Sharon hopes to forge a long-term armistice agreement that would circumvent irreconcilable disputes over refugees and Jerusalem and, perhaps establish a Palestinian state -- albeit one lacking in contiguous territory, a capital of its own choosing and control over its borders. By besieging Arafat in Ramallah and marginalising him internationally, Sharon hopes to encourage a shift in Palestinian leadership. But, as the Washington Post comments, many Israelis see Sharon stuck on his present course, with growing disaffection within the military. If he launches an all-out war, reoccupies the Palestinian territories or eliminates Arafat, the Labour Party will abandon his coalition government. If he opts for negotiations over the future of the Jewish settlements, the hard-liners would quit. Either way, his government is likely to fall.

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