21 - 27 February 2002
Issue No.574
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 21 - 27 February 2002 Issue No.574 |
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Insecurity complex
Israel is doing its utmost to sour relations between Egypt and the US. Ibrahim Nafie comments
The most salient trait of Egyptian-US relations is their subjection to constant scrutiny, which intensifies during times of crisis or in advance of a visit by President Mubarak to the US. This shows that the relationship is a privileged one, and that both parties wish to reach a point of equilibrium that can be sustained through the fluctuations of current events. Such scrutiny further testifies to the common ground of strategic interests that prevail regardless of shifting political winds.
When trying to understand Egyptian-US relations, it is crucial to remember that the realm of convergence is far greater than that of disagreement; over the years, furthermore, the former has steadily expanded to embrace new spheres of cooperation. Simultaneously, Egypt and the US have striven to contain divergence through sustained, systematic dialogue. Of their differences, only a very few have generated tensions, which were quickly averted because the density of interwoven interests cannot allow problems to persist.
Despite this solidity, however, certain "complexes" still have the power to touch raw nerves. The most crucial is the "Israeli complex." Even here, it was possible to demonstrate a measure of understanding and cite mitigating circumstances -- that is, until Ariel Sharon's rise to power.
Israel has always watched Washington's attempts to develop its relations with other countries of the region, fearful that Washington's relationship with any other Middle Eastern country presents a direct threat to Israel's regional status. The strategic relationship between Israel and Washington is eminently secure, of course, for reasons more of US domestic policy than of how Israel serves US interests in the Middle East. Israel, however, wants to regulate the pace at which Washington develops its relations with other countries. It also wants to preserve the credibility of its claim that it is the only gateway for those countries aspiring to enhance their relations with the US. More importantly, it wants to sustain its monopoly on access to US decision-making circles, thus ensuring that no one can challenge its spin on the danger Iraq poses, the threat Iran represents, Egypt's stubbornness, Arafat's terrorism, Syria's stubbornness and a host of other fabrications that have so hampered US policy in the Middle East.
Israel's attempts to obstruct Washington's relations with Egypt and other Arab countries have at times been so desperate as to erupt in scandal (the Lavon affair in the 1950s), or in violence (the attack on the USS Liberty in 1967). Israel has even resorted to espionage against the US (the case of Jonathan Pollard).
Although Israel no longer needs to resort to such tactics, since it has secured a direct line to US decisionmaking circles, when it perceives any threat to its influence in the US or feels that Washington simply wants it to stay quietly in the background, Israeli paranoia resurfaces. A recent illustration is Sharon's statement several months ago, warning that Israel would not be "another Czechoslovakia." At such times, Israel mobilises its channels of influence in the US to obstruct an arms deal Washington was about to conclude with an Arab party, roll back US economic aid and technological cooperation with another Arab government, or push for punitive measures.
Of course, every country has a right to defend its interests; but this consideration does not appear to be motivating certain pro-Israeli elements inside the US, which seem bent upon demolishing an entire edifice of US relations with Arab countries. The determination to sow contention in Washington's relations with virtually every country of the Middle East is certain to destabilise the region and harm all concerned, a dynamic that has taken on new and dangerous proportions since Sharon became prime minister.
Not long ago, the US had begun to disengage its relations with Egypt from those it has with Israel. This was possible because political developments in the Middle East seemed to be moving toward a climate more conducive to constructive thinking on the basis of interests shared by all parties. Negotiations, at least on the Palestinian track, showed signs of reaching a final settlement; Egypt's relations with Israel had been bolstered by unprecedented levels of confidence in some of its previous prime ministers; and many Arab countries had expressed their readiness to put more weight behind the Middle East peace process. Indeed, it would be no exaggeration to say that many felt in Camp David that the Middle East conflict was almost over.
Sharon's accession to power shattered all such hopes. Not only has he driven the peace process back to square one, he seems intent on dragging the region to the brink of war. Israeli brutality against the Palestinians has precipitated violence unprecedented since the beginning of the peace process, military actions against Syria seem designed to draw Damascus into armed engagement, Sharon has deliberately attempted to provoke Egypt and, most recently, he has been possessed by the desire to drive Arafat out of Palestine.
Yet Sharon has no viable peace plan of his own; worse, he clearly refuses to implement US plans for a cease-fire and the resumption of negotiations. Nor is he prepared to revise his policies, which have all but destroyed Israel's security and economy and even stirred criticism within the army, or to back down from his relentless aggression against the Palestinian people -- one of the prime factors fueling international terrorism. Naturally, this situation has exacerbated disagreements between Washington and those Arab nations with which it enjoys special relations. These countries are acquainted with the complexities of the Palestinian cause and were fully prepared to help stop the violence and work toward a resumption of negotiations. Nevertheless, Sharon has never offered anything; on the contrary, his policies have precipitated intense popular antipathy toward Israel and the US. As a result, all these Arab nations can do at present is to deal with every new situation as it arises, and continue to do all they can to restore calm. One wishes that far more could be done; but sadly, there is no effective partner in the peace process within Israel at present.
With regard to Egyptian-US relations, Ariel Sharon's blind belligerence has created a complex dynamic between Egyptian-US relations, Israeli-US relations and Egyptian-Israeli relations. The "Israeli complex" has reappeared, more perniciously than ever, as Sharon scrabbles through his bag of tricks to sour relations between Egypt and the US.
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