14 - 20 March 2002
Issue No.577
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 14 - 20 March 2002 Issue No.577 |
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No cause for optimism
The fires of war are being ignited everywhere in the West Bank and Gaza Strip as Sharon continues to pursue a policy aimed at ensuring US envoy General Zinni's mission to the region fails even before it begins, drowned in the blood of Palestinians butchered by his armies. Not that putting out the fires is particularly high on Washington's agenda: despite the misleading publicity surrounding US Vice-President Dick Cheney's 11-nation tour of the region its objective is not to promote stability in the Middle East, let alone peace, but to convince Arab countries of the virtues of attacking Iraq and disposing of Saddam Hussein. A corollary of this aim will be to quiet some of these countries' concerns about the expansion of the war on terrorism.
Of course, Cheney will be careful to massage some egos by paying attention to the details of Arab initiatives for peace in the Middle East, not least that introduced by Saudi Arabia.
US reservations about the Saudi initiative, and Israel's rapid rejection of it, a rejection made concrete by massive military operations against Palestinian camps and establishments, cannot help but raise questions over the real direction of international efforts to contain the violence in the occupied territories. Are they just a cynical attempt to prepare the ground for the real objectives of Cheney's visit rather than a sincere attempt to end the brutal murders of Palestinians, a means to buy time for America until pressure mounts by the hawks who now dominate the US administration to begin an offensive against Iraq?
Some optimists have viewed the America's polite cautioning of Israel that more killings will not stop the Palestinian resistance as somehow signalling the beginning of a shift in Washington's position. They applauded when Washington gave the UN secretary-general its consent to continue his talks with Iraq over the return of international weapons inspectors. Yet none of this stopped Cheney from asserting, in London, that his regional tour will focus on the US war on terror -- in other words, the furthering of plans to strike Iraq rather than the ongoing war between the Israeli forces and the Palestinians.
Facts on the ground, sadly, speak volumes, even if they are not heard by the Arab optimists. The Bush administration will not lift a finger to reign in Israel's prime minister. Even if it desired this, which is patently not the case, it would have been far too busy mobilising huge forces in the Gulf -- estimated by British sources to involve 30,000 troops -- under the pretext of its operations in Afghanistan.
In the past couple of weeks US-led military exercises have taken place in Kuwait with German and Australian forces participating. The US has completed its stockpiling of weapons and necessary tactical equipment, and set up a special information and a chemical war unit.
An article in the US Foreign Affairs magazine -- closely associated with the US administration -- said that Washington will not be adopting the same tactics in its campaign against Iraq as in its offensive against Afghanistan. It will not be seeking the help of Iraqi or Kurdish opposition, but will depend, initially, on a concentrated air offensive, clearing the ground for special land based troops who will take over during the later stages of the campaign. The US will be drawing on the experience of its huge military success in Afghanistan to destroy all Iraqi weaponry and bring down Saddam's regime.
Although Iraq may succeed in arriving at an agreement with the UN regarding the return of inspectors its implementation will remain dependent on Washington's whim. And the indications are that the US does not want an agreement, which would only complicate its plans to "fight terrorism" by hitting Iraq.
And given Washington's determination to launch its strikes on Baghdad, there is no room for optimism whatsoever regarding a shift in American thinking towards dampening Israel's assault on the Palestinians.
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