21 - 27 March 2002
Issue No.578
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 21 - 27 March 2002 Issue No.578 |
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Musharraf looks ahead
Pakistani President Musharraf has achieved a great deal in the six months since 11 September, but much remains to be done -- both for Pakistan as well as for his own political survival, writes Iffat Malik from Islamabad
Six months on from the 11 September terrorist attacks on the US, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf can look back with a sense of relief, even achievement, and know that his political manoeuvering has guaranteed Pakistan a firmer hold on the region. The immediate future, however, holds no little trepidation and the knowledge that several challenges are yet to be overcome.
The bombing of a Protestant church in the Pakistani capital Islamabad set the alarm bells ringing (photo: AFP)
Following the October 1999 coup that ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from office and hoisted another military general into the Pakistani presidency, the country became an international pariah, its leader shunned. Pledges and efforts by the country's chief executive -- who later appointed himself president -- to clean up the country's corrupt political system and bring about economic growth won him support at home, but yielded little response from foreign donors.
All that changed after President Musharraf's post- 11 September decision to ditch the Taliban and join the international coalition against terror. That decision saved Pakistan from American reprisals and paved the way for the provision of international economic assistance. So far, some $12.5 billion of Pakistan's $30 billion-plus debt has been rescheduled, sanctions preventing foreign assistance have been lifted, the IMF has approved a substantial Poverty Reduction Growth Facility, and Pakistani goods have been given greater access to European markets. The expected domestic backlash against President Musharraf's support for the US has, so far, proved minimal, confined to the extremist religious fringe and contained by the authorities with relative ease.
But the one who has made the most gains from the past six months has been President Musharraf. His leap from being internationally shunned to dominating the more prestigious international guest lists has led to a host of leaders flying into Islamabad to confer with him as well as state visits by him to a prestigious array of international capitals -- Paris, London, Washington and, most recently, Tokyo. His lack of democratic credentials, once a constant source of criticism, has almost been forgotten.
The second major challenge came after the 13 December attack on the Lok Sabha, India's parliament, which was blamed by the country's government on Pakistani intelligence-backed militants.
President Musharraf was equal to that challenge and averted a damaging war with the region's nuclear superpower by taking an even harder decision to abandon direct support for Kashmiri militancy. On the home front he contained a domestic backlash to the policy reversal by presenting it as part of a wider and long- running campaign against religious extremism -- a phenomenon that has claimed hundreds of victims within Pakistan.
Musharraf's historic announcement of his country's forsaking of militancy on the issue of Kashmir on 12 January was followed by the arrest of thousands of religious activists throughout the country. But, two months on, they have regrouped and are beginning to make their opposition felt. Last month, a video-tape was sent to the American Consulate in Karachi showing the brutal killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl. Sectarian killings are on the rise once more -- 14 people were killed as they prayed in a Rawalpindi mosque while, in Karachi, several Shi'a doctors have been gunned down. Sunday's grenade attack on a church in Islamabad's diplomatic enclave killed five people, two of them Americans, and is the most recent example of the continuing menace posed by religious extremists. Coming in the heart of the capital, it highlighted the ineffectiveness of the police and other security agencies in guaranteeing stability.
Musharraf might well be basking in the glow of international praise, but he also knows that it could just as easily revert to criticism. The US, though grateful for his support in the Afghan campaign, has maintained its pressure on him to deal with religious extremists and stop the infiltration of Taliban and Al-Qa'eda fighters into Pakistan. Washington has sought the extradition of Sheikh Omar Said, a British-born Pakistani who is the chief suspect in the Pearl murder case. But Islamabad has said that it will try Said itself. So far, the Americans are taking a "wait and see" attitude, but continued refusals to hand over the perceived perpetrator of a crime that has captured the American public mood with such fervour could prompt a harder stance on Pakistan.
International praise is also conditional on Musharraf restoring democracy within Pakistan. Criticism on that issue has been suspended rather than permanently put aside. So far, the President has stuck to the "road-map to democracy" he unveiled on 14 August 2001. The first round of elections for local bodies were completed on time. Polls for the remaining National and Provincial Assemblies, and the Senate (Upper House) are due to be held in the first week of October 2002.
Musharraf has repeatedly promised that they will also be held on time and most analysts believe they will be free, fair and without any poll-day rigging. But that is not to suggest that Musharraf will not try to influence the outcome -- far from it. Having enjoyed absolute power for more than two years, Pervez Musharraf wants to hand as little as possible back. His strategy to ensure that this happens is two- pronged.
First, he has announced that he will stay on as president for a five-year term "to ensure the sustainability of the reform process" introduced by his government. In addition, the National Reconstruction Bureau -- a body set up by the military government to devise reforms -- is busy working out possible constitutional changes that would curb the powers of elected civilians. Another idea that has the government's unofficial endorsement, is to set up a supervisory national security council that would oversee the civilian administration. The proposed council would include representatives of the armed forces.
The second part of Musharraf's strategy for holding on to power after the transition to a civilian administration involves ensuring that a pliant civilian administration takes over -- one that would be satisfied with a partial transfer of power. There are two main political parties in Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto's PPP and Nawaz Sharif's PML.
A host of smaller parties only have clout as potential coalition partners or within the provincial assemblies. Musharraf tried to strike a deal with the PPP, whereby it would be allowed to form the next government if Benazir agreed to step aside and let someone else become prime minister. Her personal ambition has so far blocked such a deal. In the PML's case, the military encouraged a split in the party and the formation of a new anti-Nawaz faction, the PML(QA). The government hopes that that party will do well enough in forthcoming elections to be able to assume power. Its big handicap, though, is that, with Nawaz Sharif living in plush exile in Saudi Arabia, his party no longer has a charismatic and nationally- recognised leader at its helm.
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