2 - 8 May 2002
Issue No.584
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 2 - 8 May 2002 Issue No.584 |
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A French 11 September
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed compares the shock effect of the French presidential elections to that felt in the wake of the terrorist attacks of 11 September
The results of the first round of the French presidential elections are being described as a "political earthquake" that has left France reeling and sent shock waves throughout the European Union. The totally unexpected defeat of the Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin, limits the run-off vote to a competition between the representative of the right, Jacques Chirac, and of the far right, Jean-Marie Le Pen. With all left-wing candidates out of the race, including Jospin, who has announced his retirement from politics, will the left vote for its traditional opponent, the right represented by Chirac, or will it vote indirectly for the far right by abstaining from voting altogether?
The rise of the far right and its growing popularity among wide sections of the working classes is an expression of the disillusionment and loss of confidence with mainstream parties and traditional politicians, whose message that the main contradiction in society is between the traditional right and left has lost all credibility. A record 28 per cent of the electorate abstained from voting, while nearly a third voted for extreme or fringe parties on both right and left, allowing Le Pen, an outsider in the traditional political game, to upset the whole political setup in France.
It is being said that the shock of Le Pen's strong showing in the first round will trigger a strong reaction in French public opinion and a mighty regrouping round Chirac in the second round on 5 May, on the grounds that Le Pen has become the main danger in the eyes of an overwhelming majority of French citizens from a variety of parties and political persuasions. But this will not apply to the far left, notably, the Trotskyist school of thought, which puts all right-wing candidates in the same basket and makes no distinction between them. Opinion polls predict that Chirac will win 80 per cent of the vote, while Le Pen will get a mere 20 per cent. But opinion polls predicted that Jospin, not Le Pen, would be second in the first round and they were wrong. There is no guarantee they will be right this time.
Moreover, Le Pen has threatened to attack Chirac on the allegations of corruption which have dogged him in recent years, as well as to highlight his failure to reduce crime and control immigration. These two issues were central in Le Pen's presidential campaign, and it remains to be seen whether they will continue to be as effective in the second round as they proved to be in the first, more particularly, in the coming parliamentary elections to be held next June.
In a way, the rise of Le Pen can be seen as a reaction to his political isolation for long years during which he was ostracised by a wide spectrum of political forces extending from the right to the far left. Regarded as an unsavoury reminder of a danger which had disappeared with the defeat of fascism in World War II, he was dismissed as a marginal phenomenon, part of a lunatic fringe that should not be taken seriously. His party, the National Front, has no seats in the National Assembly, while his outrageous behaviour and comments have alienated his colleagues in the European Parliament, where his main claim to fame is his dismissal of the holocaust as a mere detail of history and his physical assault against a female Socialist Party politician. And, now, suddenly, Le Pen has been catapulted to the forefront of the French political scene, one of the two contenders for the country's presidency, in defiance of concerted attempts by the country's political establishment to keep him outside the institutions. It seems the establishment underestimated his popularity and miscalculated the national mood. Although some 300 thousand demonstrators took to the streets to express their horror at Le Pen's victory, nothing could be done to alter the result.
Actually what happened in France is the latest example of a general shift to the right throughout much of Europe in the last few years. The far right is now at the heart of the decision-making process in a number of European countries, namely, Austria, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Portugal. It has an ever-growing following in Germany and Holland and is passing from the periphery to centre stage in more and more countries. It has benefited from the anger of voters at what they see as a casual link between an ever-wider immigration from underdeveloped countries south of the Mediterranean and the manifest increase in crime. Le Pen has profited from his conflict against the French elites. He has acquired legitimacy, if not respectability.
The most important conclusion to be drawn from the results of the first round of the French presidential elections is that the main contradiction in society is no longer between the right and the left as a whole but between the extremists on both the right and the left on one hand, who together constituted the "rejectionist forces" that won over one third of the electorate, and the moderates on both the right and the left on the other, who shared state power under Chirac as president and Jospin as prime minister. Thus the epicentre of confrontation moved from right versus left to right versus far right. For the first time in France since World War II, there will not be a candidate from the left running for the presidency.
Actually, the main victim of the first round of the elections is the French left, especially the left that has traditionally stood for the Stalinist tradition. This is particularly true of the French Communist Party, whose score plummeted from over 22 per cent in the wake of World War II to 3.5 per cent in the present elections -- its lowest score ever, while the far left Trotskyist Party won close to 10 per cent of the vote. It is interesting to recall in this respect that Jospin had a clandestine relationship with the Trotskyists before he joined the French Socialist Party and became one of its key leaders.
Of course, the circumstances which surrounded the French presidential elections were very different from those in which the dramatic terrorist events of 11 September unfolded. But there are certain common features. In both cases, acute frustration brought about a strong determination to change the existing systems and institutions by every means, including violence and terror. Violence has become part and parcel of the equation, even in countries with a solid democratic tradition like France.
Some Arab voices have been raised in support of Le Pen, presumably because of his well-documented hostility to Jews, in total disregard of the fact that his message of xenophobia and racism is not directed only, or indeed even mainly, against Jews. He is even more virulent in his hatred of Arabs and, after 11 September, more overt in attacking the large Islamic community in France. His message that immigration is the root cause of crime, violence and unemployment resonates in working class neighbourhoods. In a televised address, Le Pen said all people living in France and emanating from an immigrant origin were "a threat to security, whether actually or potentially" and "a menace to the French people whether to their bodies, their belongings or their mode of life." If elected, he said he would close the door to any further immigration, order the immediate expulsion of all illegal immigrants, suspend current measures aimed at reunifying the families of immigrant workers and repeal the law that grants French citizenship to the children of immigrants who are born in France. It is a programme which fills the hearts of France's huge immigrant community, even those among them who have become naturalised French citizens, with dread and a strong sense of insecurity.
In any case, if it is true that French citizens sympathetic to Arab causes voted for Chirac in the first round on the grounds that French Jews were more likely to vote for Jospin, it is also true that with Jospin out of the race Chirac's chances of prevailing in the second round are much higher. But one should not underestimate Le Pen's proven ability to tap into the deep reservoir of frustration and anger in French society today. It is in that sense that a comparison can be made between the circumstances which led to the surprise results of the French elections and the circumstances which led to the shocking events of 11 September. The French elections signal that these circumstances are much more central in determining the course of events than most analysts believe.
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