9 - 15 May 2002
Issue No.585
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Al-Ahram Weekly Online 9 - 15 May 2002 Issue No.585 |
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Musharraf's dubious victory
Will April's referendum on the Pakistani presidency be remembered as the beginning of the end for Pervez Musharraf? Iffat Malik,in Islamabad, seeks an answer
Tuesday 30 April was a historic day for Pakistan and General Pervez Musharraf. He secured an overwhelming majority in a nation-wide referendum on his presidency in a ballot that saw an unexpectedly high turnout. One would have thought that such an occurrence was ample cause for celebration. And yet 30 April could mark the beginning of the end for President Musharraf.
According to official figures announced by the chief election commissioner on the evening of May Day, 43.9 million voters exercised their right to choose; and of those, 97.7 per cent marked "yes" to a continuation of the reform process initiated by General Musharraf and hence to the continuation of his presidency for the next five years -- quite remarkable figures. The numbers are even more impressive when the 43.9 million figure is translated into a percentage: 71 per cent of the electorate.
The problem is the discrepancy between those official figures and the scenes at most polling booths on referendum day. With the exception of a handful of key polling stations -- those located at TV stations, for example, and those in or near large government offices -- most remained obstinately empty throughout the day. Numerous correspondents and independent monitors reported turnout figures amounting to a few dozen at most. Nowhere did one see crowds or long lines of people queuing to vote.
The government's explanation for this discrepancy between the evident lack of voters and its reports of a massive turnout -- the numbers announced by the government were in fact double those of previous national elections -- was that it had set up so many polling stations that they were easily coping with voter demand. Polling stations were so numerous and efficiently run, the government line went, that people never had to wait around long enough for queues to develop.
The opposition parties, as well as the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and most of the press, offer a different explanation. Those organisations put voter turnout as low as 5-10 per cent, and accused the government of stuffing ballot boxes on a massive scale. The simplified voting rules -- anyone over the age of 18 could vote anywhere in the country, there were no electorate lists -- also simplified vote-fixing. There was nothing to stop polling agents stamping ballot papers themselves or voters from casting their votes again and again.
Indelible ink was supposed to be put on voters' hands to prevent them from voting more than once, but it was either not used, or came off easily, or quite simply was overlooked by polling officials under pressure to produce a high turn-out.
Turn-out was the key to success in the referendum. The opposition parties had called a boycott, and there was never any doubt that those who bothered to vote would more than likely cast their ballot for Musharraf. The vital question was therefore not so much whether Musharraf would win, but how many people would actually vote?
Before the referendum the government had announced that it would be satisfied with a 30 per cent turn-out. Once it became clear -- by early Tuesday evening -- that fewer people would head to the polls, the government, it is widely alleged, resorted to stuffing ballot boxes. The thinking appears to have been "in for a penny, in for a pound": if boxes had to be stuffed, why stop at 30 per cent? Why not go higher? Such was the impossibility of the 71 per cent figure that finally emerged that even the government was embarrassed. It tried to backtrack by inflating the size of the eligible electorate, thereby reducing turnout to a still implausible 56 per cent.
President Musharraf went on national television on Thursday evening to thank the nation for his "extraordinary success." He and the government might be congratulating themselves, but few in the country seem to have been fooled by the referendum. The result is that while Musharraf might have technically secured the presidency for five years, in practice his position is much weaker than it was before the referendum.
For what Musharraf has lost is what had been his greatest asset -- trust and credibility. Since he took power in a military coup in October 1999, the Pakistani people might not have been entirely happy with his policies or performance, but they believed that he was working in the national interest.
In sharp contrast to the public's view of the country's notoriously corrupt politicians, the Pakistani people viewed Musharraf to be straightforward, honest and sincere.
The referendum has cast him in a different light. Widespread use of state resources, forced attendance at the president's rallies, a huge propaganda campaign on national TV, and finally, the impossible turnout figures have created the impression that Musharraf is just another power-hungry leader, determined to do whatever it takes to ensure his continued grip on power.
Pakistan today is gripped by a depressing sense of déja vu. Musharraf's problems are likely to increase rather than decrease. The press was extremely critical of his campaign and the whole referendum. Musharraf responded to that criticism with anger: his subordinates went further, even baton- charging journalists at one rally. All of this has soured the government's previously good relationship with the press. In a reflection of the altered public opinion about the president, the media is likely to be far more critical of him in future.
The apparently blatant manipulation of the referendum also served to unite the opposition political parties. The main opposition parties, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, together with the influential religious parties, strongly opposed the referendum. Their attempts to end military rule may receive a considerable boost due to the public's alienation that the referendum has caused. Up until the referendum, Musharraf appeared to have had considerable room to do as he pleased politically; in the future, he may well have to deal with an energised political opposition.
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