Issue No.587
Region
Previous issue
Site map
|
|
23 -29 May 2002 Issue No.587 Region |
Current issue Previous issue Site map | |
| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Ailing ruler spurs questions
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's recent admission to hospital has raised doubts amongst his tripartite coalition, and inspired talk of potential political chaos. Gareth Jenkins reports
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit was admitted to hospital last week amid speculation that the increasingly frail 76-year-old will be forced to step down as premier, a move which most analysts predict would trigger the collapse of the ruling tripartite coalition and plunge the country into another period of political and economic instability.
Bulent Ecevit
On Friday doctors at the Baskent University Hospital in Ankara where Ecevit is staying announced that he had only been admitted as a precautionary measure to allow him to recover from a broken rib suffered in a fall.
"I want to make it clear that there is no serious condition that should be cause for alarm," Mehmet Haberal told a throng of journalists camped out on the hospital steps. But few believe him. When the news of Ecevit's hospitalisation broke, prices on the Istanbul Stock Exchange fell by over five percent.
Privately, hospital sources confirmed that Ecevit's health is failing. He was already widely believed to be in remission from cancer and is known to be suffering from a string of other ailments, including Parkinson's disease. But Ecevit has always rejected suggestions that he should step down, doggedly dyeing his gray hair black and dismissing speculations about his health as the machinations of his political opponents.
But in recent months Ecevit's condition has visibly deteriorated. On 4 May he spent a night in hospital for what was officially described as an upset stomach. Yet privately, his doctors admitted that he had suffered a severe reaction to the cortisone he was taking for his other ailments. They took Ecevit off the cortisone and he spent the next two weeks working at home, which is where he fell and broke a rib. Apparently, for fear that it would fuel renewed media speculation about his health, Ecevit delayed visiting a doctor for nearly a week. By the time he was eventually admitted to hospital he had also developed a vascular condition and the initial stages of gangrene.
Ecevit is expected to stay in hospital for at least a week. But even if he returns to work few Turks believe that the prime minister is now capable of running the country. Most are torn between compassion at the sight of the ailing, elderly man, and frustration at his refusal to make way for someone younger. Yet it is difficult to see where a successor would come from. For years Ecevit has run his own party, the Democratic Left Party (DLP), as a personal fiefdom, ruthlessly removing any potential rivals. Meanwhile, neither of the other two parties in the coalition, the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP) and the Motherland Party (MP), would accept a member of the other taking over from Ecevit as prime minister. Nor, with the country still mired in its deepest economic recession in living memory, are any of the coalition partners keen to hold early elections. Turkey's powerful military is also opposed to early elections for fear that they could result in a victory for the Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP), which currently enjoys a substantial lead in the opinion polls.
The prospect of a lame duck government led by a physically incapacitated premier comes at a time when Turkey's foreign relations are entering a critical phase. Later this year the EU is due to grant membership to the Republic of Cyprus without waiting for the reunification of the island. Ankara has warned that, if the EU accepts Cyprus as a member, it will annex the Turkish Cypriot north of the island in a move which would put an end to Turkey's own hopes of eventual succession, and plunge the country into international isolation.
There is also an increasing awareness in Ankara that the US is determined to launch a military campaign to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Washington has asked Ankara both to allow US troops and planes to use bases in Turkey and to participate in a ground offensive, probably by temporarily occupying the north of Iraq while the US pushes on towards Baghdad. The vast majority of Turks are vigorously opposed both to another US military campaign against Iraq and to any Turkish participation. But although Turkish officials also remain publicly opposed to a military campaign against Iraq, they privately claim that if, as appears likely, the US launches an attack later this year or in early 2003, they will have little choice but to participate.
"We honestly don't want the US to attack Baghdad," said a Turkish official. "We lost a lot because of the Gulf War. We don't want to go through that again. But if the US goes ahead then we shall have to support them, even actively if necessary. It is not just because we owe so much money to the IMF. Once Saddam has been removed there is a real danger that the Kurds in the north of the country will try to establish their own state. We can never allow that, and it will be much easier to prevent it if we are actively involved in the US campaign rather than if we remain aloof."
|
 |
|
|||||||||||||||||
| ARCHIVES Letter from the Editor Editorial Board Subscription Advertise! |
WEEKLY ONLINE: www.ahram.org.eg/weekly Updated every Saturday at 11.00 GMT, 2pm local time weeklyweb@ahram.org.eg |
 Al-Ahram Organisation |
