Issue No.588
Opinion
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30 May - 5 June 2002 Issue No.588 Opinion |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Measuring the steps
President Mubarak's US visit will be essential in kick-starting the peace process and securing regional and international stability, writes Ibrahim Nafie
Besides reaffirming the strengths inherent within Egyptian-American relations, it is widely anticipated that President Mubarak's upcoming visit to Washington will give rise to significant developments on the Palestinian front. Egypt has always understood Washington's seminal role in maintaining regional stability and, in some instances, preventing collapse. And the US administration likewise appreciates Egypt's regional role: indeed, Washington has openly averred that, of all the states in the region, it recognises only Egypt and Israel as stable, developed powers able to sustain a regional perspective. It was in this light -- within a framework of seeking out the necessary political resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict-- that I stressed the importance of President Mubarak's visit to Washington last week.
As the first, measured step on the path to a viable and acceptable political resolution the Egyptian-American initiative obliges Egypt (the principal agent of Arab diplomacy) and other Arab states to carefully assess their positions at this most critical of times, coordinating with Washington, the only world power in the post-Cold War era capable of mediating regional conflicts like the one in question. While CIA director George Tenet is scheduled to tour the region following President Mubarak's visit, deputy Secretary of State William Burns, in the hope of gauging the Palestinian and Israeli positions in preparation for future negotiations, was due in the region yesterday, with a meeting with President Mubarak scheduled. It is on such initiatives, undertaken in the conviction that armed conflict (be it Israeli state aggression or Palestinian operations within Israel) will never lead to a solution, that the region's hopes hang. And all the signals are that the two presidents will come up with a comprehensive plan for political and security reforms.
It is far from being a secret that it is the security apparatus that forms the backbone of any political system, and the Palestinian security apparatus suffered a great deal of damage at the hands of Israeli forces during the recent incursion, Operation Defensive Shield. It is now in urgent need of a complete overhaul which, coupled with the political reforms which have become a popular Palestinian as well as an official Israeli and American demand, should prepare the nascent Palestinian state for the tasks ahead of it. Palestinian President Yasser Arafat has no doubt commenced on the groundwork necessary to undertake the reforms in question, and it is expected that he will hold elections within six months. Reliable Egyptian sources indicate that Israel will immediately withdraw to the 28 September, i.e. pre-Intifada, borders, whereupon negotiations for a final settlement will commence. These negotiations should last no longer than two years. It is absolutely essential that they avoid the open-ended agreements that have allowed Israel to elude its obligations in the past.
The same sources indicate that a Palestinian state will be declared prior to 2003. Following elections the Palestinian legislative council will draft a constitution, while the state's institutions will undertake the task of negotiating such issues as Jerusalem, the refugees, settlements and borders, in the light of UN Resolutions 242 and 338. It is likely that, following Israel's withdrawal, security reforms will be undertaken immediately and in the wake of these reforms, probably next year, the independent state will be declared -- following which negotiations will be undertaken between two independent states, UN members, rather than an occupier and a representative national authority -- in the hope of securing a final agreement. In so far as they exemplify a pattern in international relations, these developments are not only a sign of peace but a step on the way to procuring the Palestinians' legitimate rights. Throughout history, when an occupying force has taken over the territory of a people, following a violent confrontation and/or diplomatic efforts, a peace agreement resolves the issue and the two countries enter into a new stage of fully normalised relations.
In implementing this vision for peace in the Middle East, I strongly suspect that Egypt and other Arab countries will not abandon even a square inch of the territory occupied by Israel since 1967. The Palestinians' rights will thus be fully protected -- an obligation that will be expressed in the procedures for Arab support for the Palestinian state, especially during its negotiations with Israel. The principal issue in this context will be the effective implementation of the agreements reached within the temporal framework specified for them -- two years at the most -- since the experience of the past has provided ample evidence of Israel's tendency to wage a battle or employ suicidal operations as an excuse for not abiding by its side of any agreement. The issue of respecting the times specified for the various moves is therefore of paramount importance: all the stages of the procedure must be undertaken at the appointed times; it is in Washington's interest to ensure this since any failure to implement the agreement in time would undermine not only stability and security but US credibility as a mediator. (On the other hand I doubt if Sharon, whose attitudes and policies are largely informed by violent instincts, will in the end allow this to happen.)
What is equally important is that the three remaining major international players -- the Russian Federation, the EU and the UN -- should act as guardians of the peace process. In their presence Israel will have less of a chance to elude obligations agreed on than if Washington is the sole mediator. The involvement of the international community provides an added guarantee that the Egyptian-American initiative will yield the desired results.
Another positive consequence of President Mubarak's visit to Washington is that it will contribute significantly to engineering an improvement in the image of the US in the region. Indeed, a significant dimension of future US-Middle East relations will depend on Washington's role in implementing the terms of the proposed settlement and safeguarding the journey of the peace process through to its final destination, namely a just and fair final Palestinian-Israeli settlement. It is in Washington's interest to do so because the US has many significant interests in the region and Middle East security and stability form a significant aspect of world peace and stability, the responsibility of Washington as the principal world power in the present era. The US, I suspect, is aware of the consequences for Arab societies of Israel's aggression against the Palestinians, having witnessed the volatility that resulted from the recent incursion. It should also be aware of the effects of the absence of justice on the general atmosphere, which affects not only the security and stability of the region but the interests of all international powers
In the past US policies have given rise to opposition and dissent even among Washington's European allies, a fact of which President Bush must have been made aware during his recent tour of EU countries, a tour regularly punctuated by gatherings of demonstrators whose sole purpose was to protest against American foreign policy. President Mubarak's visit thus offers Washington an ideal opportunity to underline its ability to serve as a just and unbiased mediator in the Middle East peace process. America and the Arabs now have a large number of common interests, and it is Washington's responsibility to protect and develop these interests rather than undermining them in the course of endorsing the kind of Israeli manoeuvres that are designed to allow Tel Aviv to avoid paying its political dues. In seizing the chance offered by the President Mubarak's visit, Washington will not only be promoting Middle East security and stability but protecting its own interests.
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