Al-Ahram Weekly | International | An Afghan agreement of sorts

		20 - 26 June 2002 Issue No. 591 International	Current issue Previous issue Site map
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An Afghan agreement of sorts
Karzai has been elected Afghan president for the next 18 months. Will he be able to manage the warlords and rebuild the country? Iffat Malik examines the prospects

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Afghan delegates at the Loya Jirga in Kabul use a video recorder. Taking pictures and video recording were banned under the ousted militant Islamist Taliban regime
When Afghans met in Bonn last November to discuss the post-Taliban government of their country, few would have predicted they would reach agreement. Even fewer would have predicted that, eight months down the line, the Bonn Accord would still be on track. And yet that is precisely what has happened.
Last Tuesday, the Afghan Loya Jirga, or council of tribal chieftains and elders, met in Kabul to agree on a new transitional government, to replace the interim administration of Hamid Karzai that has run the country for the last six months. The new government chosen by the Jirga will rule for 18 months, when elections will be held.
The Loya Jirga, or grand council, is a traditional gathering of tribal elders and leaders, which meets to decide important issues. It dates back almost 1000 years. One thousand and 51 members of this latest Loya Jirga were selected by district "elections" held nation-wide. A further 450 delegates were appointed by the commission overseeing the Jirga, to ensure that the ethnic groups, the refugees and the expatriate communities were represented. At the last minute, the commission also included all the provincial governors, tribal commanders and their advisers.
In all, just over 1,500 delegates met in a specially constructed tent put up in the campus of Kabul Polytechnic. The first task facing them, after choosing a chairman and drawing up the rules of procedure, was to select a new Afghan president. But it soon became clear that the Americans were determined to ensure the selection of their favoured candidate -- Hamid Karzai.
The only two nominees who could have seriously challenged Karzai would have been former President and Northern Alliance Leader Burhanuddin Rabbani and former King Zahir Shah. Rabbani dropped out of the race early on, citing national interests, but Zahir Shah appeared less compliant.
Shah has been in exile since 1973 and, at the age of 87, has a huge question mark over his health. Despite these handicaps, the ex-king has a substantial following among Afghanistan's majority Pashtun community. Many would have liked him to become -- if not president of the country -- then at least head of state with some executive powers. His son and grandson were also keen for him to have a role in the new government -- no doubt to keep their own hopes of coming to power alive. Members of the Loya Jirga shared that sentiment, because -- even before it started -- more than 800 had nominated Zahir Shah as their candidate to head the next government.
Worried that Zahir Shah could upset Karzai's election, the Afghan-born US envoy to the country, Zalmay Khalilzad, held a meeting with the former king and persuaded him not to stand. Hamid Karzai met him for the same purpose. Confusion over Zahir Shah's plans delayed the opening of the Jirga. It eventually convened after Shah's aide issued a statement on his behalf. "I have no intention of restoring the monarchy. I am not a candidate for any position in the Loya Jirga," the statement read. A press conference called prior to that statement by Khalilzad, in which he made the same announcement that the king would not be standing, made the Americans' role in his decision very obvious.
But if anyone had thought the Loya Jirga would simply rubber stamp Karzai's selection, they were soon proved wrong. Many delegates voiced their anger at Shah's "removal". Sima Samar, a prominent female minister in the current government, complained. "This is not democracy. This is a rubber stamp. Everything here has already been decided by those with the power," she protested. It was also a woman, Dr Masooda Jalal, who ended up mounting the biggest challenge to Karzai. In an indication of how far women have come since the Taliban, she stood for president and refused to back down even though she was offered a cabinet post in exchange. The third candidate was Mir Mohamed Mahfoz Nadai, a little known civil servant.
In the run-up to electing the new president, many delegates made speeches criticising the government. They also insisted on a secret ballot rather than voting through a show of hands, in order to minimise intimidation. In the end, despite a somewhat uncomfortable few days in the Jirga, Karzai won a convincing victory. He gained 1,295 votes, Dr Jalal 171 and Mahfoz Nadai 89.
According to the rules of the Jirga, no one directly or indirectly involved in the killing of innocent people could be a delegate. Yet sitting in the front rows were notorious warlords like Abdur Rashid Dostum of Mazar-e-Sharif. Their presence, and Karzai's general failure to tackle the tense situation, was also condemned by the delegates. They also criticised the large number of intelligence men wandering around the campus. Many tribal leaders saw them as intimidating.
The fact that the UN (backed by the Americans) approved of their presence was seen as further proof of outside interference in the proceedings. Zalmay Khalilzad justified the decision. "One has to balance the requirements of peace, which sometimes necessitate difficult compromises, and justice, which requires accountability," he said.
As head of the interim administration, Hamid Karzai made a number of concessions. All the key ministries went to Northern Alliance leaders (who as Tajiks, belong to a minority ethnic group). Those excluded from power (especially the majority Pashtuns) bided their time in the expectation that the Jirga would redress the balance and give them a more powerful role.
Karzai, a Pashtun, has been elected president but it is the composition of his cabinet which will determine whether Afghanistan has a more representative government or whether Tajik domination will continue. That in turn will determine whether Afghanistan will become stable or will revert to factional fighting.
In a press conference after his victory, Karzai made it clear that his priority was a government of national unity. Many interpreted that as a sign that he would include warlords like Dostum and Ismail Khan of Herat in his cabinet; the many allegations of human rights abuses against them would be overlooked. "First have peace and stability. Then give the people of Afghanistan the justice they want," Karzai said. But without justice -- the tackling of the warlords -- Karzai could find peace and stability unattainable goals. The UN issued a timely warning on Saturday that the warlord culture, crime and lawlessness were a growing menace in northern Afghanistan.
Karzai outlined his other priorities as national reconstruction (in particular, building a road system), fighting terrorism and alleviating hunger and oppression. His stress on combating terrorism will have reassured the Americans. But his call for the international community to fulfil its so far unfulfilled pledges of financial assistance, will have made less comfortable listening.
Afghanistan's closest neighbours, Iran and Pakistan, also watched the Jirga proceedings with great interest. Both have large Afghan refugee populations, as well as ambitions to exert influence in the country. This last goal is shared by India too. So far, the promise of a stable, rebuilt Afghanistan has led more than one million refugees to return to their homeland, from Iran and Pakistan. Only if that stability continues will they continue to return. Pakistan will be heartened by the continued US influence in Afghanistan -- a factor that rules out significant Iranian advances there.
Islamabad, however, will be concerned if the Northern Alliance maintains its dominant position: so far it has proven to be distinctly pro-New Delhi.
Afghanistan is slowly moving towards stability and an end to conflict, but the path remains strewn with obstacles. Karzai will need all his skills to avoid them.

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