Issue No. 593
International
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4 - 10 July 2002 Issue No. 593 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Musharraf struggles on
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's tenuous hold on power is slipping fast as his ongoing war on terror takes its toll, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad
Last week, Pakistan suffered its first military casualties in the war against terror. Suspected Al- Qa'eda activists killed 10 Pakistani soldiers in the country's remote tribal belt. The killings could have significant implications, especially when taken in the context of President Musharraf's ongoing domestic struggle to consolidate power.
The four-hour gun battle between Pakistani soldiers and Al-Qa'eda fighters on Wednesday was the first major military clash between the two sides. Pakistani soldiers surrounded the house of a local tribal leader in the village of Azam Warzak, South Waziristan, some 15 miles from the Afghan border. The Al- Qa'eda forces inside mounted strong resistance, killing 10 Pakistani soldiers before escaping. Two Al- Qa'eda fighters -- believed to be Chechen -- were also killed.
The US government has been pressing Pakistan for the past two months to take action against Al-Qa'eda and Taliban fighters. It claimed that hundreds of men, possibly including Osama Bin Laden, crossed the Afghan border and are hiding in Pakistan's tribal belt. The Musharraf government was reluctant to comply with US demands for a number of reasons. Not only is the tribal belt a semi-autonomous region in which the federal government's writ barely operates, but Pakistani soldiers had never set foot in the region before the Afghan war. Musharraf feared armed resistance by the tribes that could lead to civil war. He also feared that Pakistani public opinion would strongly oppose the deployment of Pakistani troops in their own country to fight fellow Muslims. Finally, Pakistani officials were sceptical about the reliability of US intelligence reports.
The Pakistani operation last week shows that those reservations have been overcome and the country is once again fully on board the US-led war against terror. Washington was suitably appreciative: "That several of Pakistan's soldiers have made the ultimate sacrifice once again proves our ally's commitment to our common struggle against terror." But domestically the losses have not gone down so well.
The Al-Qa'eda fighters were being sheltered by locals in the tribal belt. The latter resent the presence of Pakistani troops and even more so of US forces. There have already been attacks on buildings housing US soldiers, though no one has yet been injured. Since the soldiers' deaths, some 600 Pakistani troops have been deployed in the region in a massive hunt for their killers. The heightened military presence increases the chances of raising tensions in the area and clashing with irate locals.
The Pakistani press and political opposition have also been negative. Many papers ran editorials and opinion pieces questioning the wisdom of helping the US. The English-language daily The Nation said ordinary people were "wondering why Pakistani soldiers should die in what they perceive as America's war, not Pakistan's". Mainstream political parties have added their voices of opposition to those of the religious parties.
Looking to the future, there is a general consensus that the backlash by religious extremists against the Musharraf government's pro-US policy will get more violent. There have been several serious acts of terrorism already and most analysts predict that more is to come. The Nation warned: "While the US forces would go back after achieving their limited objective, Pakistan will have to cope with the actions' grave after-effects for years." Specifically, the threat to Musharraf's life has greatly increased in recent months.
President Musharraf's popularity, already diminished by April's blatantly rigged referendum [on whether he should stay on as president for the next five years], is likely to decline even further. Political and religious parties are likely to use the Pakistani president's cooperation with the US to attack his government in the run-up to October's elections. It was perhaps no coincidence then that Musharraf chose last week to unveil draft constitutional amendments which -- if implemented -- will greatly increase his own powers.
Elections for the National and Provincial Assemblies as well as the Senate (upper house) are scheduled for October 2002. Everyone knew that, before holding them, President Musharraf will introduce measures to ensure his own and the army's continued grip on power. But even knowing that, many were surprised by the breadth of the proposed amendments.
Under the draft provisions, the president will have the right not just to dissolve the National Assembly (a right exercised by previous presidents) but also to unilaterally dismiss the government without dissolving the assembly. Further, he will be able to invite a party to form the government even if it does not command a majority or hold the largest number of seats in the assembly.
Critics complain that the new measures make the prime minister a puppet in the president's hands. The voting age is being lowered from 21 to 18 years because Musharraf believes that he has more support among young people. Finally, a National Security Council (NSC) is being set up to oversee the government. The NSC will be headed by the president.
If carried through, the constitutional amendments will make Musharraf the most powerful president in Pakistani history. The main political parties and civil rights groups have strongly condemned them, with Pakistani People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto warning, "The document released by the junta, if implemented, will ring the death knell for democracy in this country."
Analysts see the inflated powers Musharraf is handing himself as reflecting his failure to forge political alliances. The military government has tried to make deals with established political parties and it has sought to create a new and compliant political class through sponsoring elections at grass-roots level. Both attempts have failed. Without reliable (ie subservient) political partners in place, Musharraf could not risk free elections. They would lead to an independent civilian government taking power. The proposed amendments would mean that an independent civilian government can still be elected but its hands will be tied by the all-powerful president.
General Pervez Musharraf seized power over three years ago promising to bring genuine democracy to Pakistan. Sadly, he is following the example of previous dictators and doing everything possible to ensure his own continued rule. In the process, he is subverting rather than strengthening democracy.
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