Issue No. 596
International
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25 - 31 July 2002 Issue No. 596 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
To be or not to be
Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus threatens to derail the entire EU accession process, writes Michael Jansen from Nicosia
The ongoing coalition crisis in Ankara is not only a threat to the political and economic stability of Turkey, but also to the peace of the Eastern Mediterranean and the process of enlarging the European Union. For the past six months Cyprus President Glafkos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash have been holding intensive discussions on a political settlement for the island, divided since the Turkish army invaded the north in 1974, and occupied 37 per cent of the country.
The aim of the UN-sponsored negotiations is to reunite the island in a two- community federation. Four "core issues" have been talked over endlessly, but little progress has been made. These four issues are territory, security, constitutional arrangements and property. On territory, the Turkish side is expected to cede between seven to eight per cent of the land it holds. This would reduce the area of the Turkish Cypriot zone to around 30 per cent and permit about half of the 200,000 Greek Cypriot refugees to go back to their homes in towns and villages, which would be included in the expanded Greek Cypriot zone.
However, Denktash has given nothing away. On the question of security, he insists that Turkey should maintain a military presence on the island and retain the right to intervene in Cyprus as guarantor of the interests of the Turkish Cypriots.
The Greek Cypriots demand an end to Greco-Turkish guarantees and the withdrawal of all foreign forces, including 35- 40,000 Turkish troops. The Greek Cypriots call for the demilitarisation of the island and the creation of an international force to keep the peace until inter- communal peaceful coexistence can be assured.
In addition, Denktash insists that the new Cypriot polity should consist of a weak confederation of two independent sovereign states having wide powers, including the right to conduct their own defence policies and foreign relations. The Greek Cypriots and the international community, on the other hand, call for the creation of a federation of two states. This federation would have domestic autonomy, while being united under a single sovereignty.
The gap between the two sides on the issue of property is very wide indeed. Denktash calls for a simple exchange of Turkish Cypriot holdings in the south, and for Greek Cypriot holdings in the north. Compensation is to be part of the package. Since Greek Cypriots owned far more property in the north than Turkish Cypriots in the south, the Greek Cypriot side insists that ownership rights cannot be dismissed.
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, who invaded Cyprus in 1974, believes that the Cypriot problem has been solved by de facto partition and the separation of the two communities. However, unless Ankara accepts a negotiated political settlement based on the proposed federation, Turkey's own bid for European Union (EU) membership, a long-standing dream of the Western-educated Turkish elite, may be forfeited.
For Cyprus the process of EU accession is well advanced. The republic leads the pack of fast-track candidate countries and expects its application to be approved at the Copenhagen EU summit in December.
Cypriot Foreign Minister Yiannis Cassoulides said that the future of negotiations now depends on what happens in Turkey. "The situation is still fluid. Everything depends on which wing wins the day," Cassoulides said.
Meanwhile, in Turkey two rival forces are battling over Europe -- the anti- Europe party, the Europhobes, and the pro-Europe camp, the Europhiles. The Europhobes constitute the powerful status quo element which includes the army, the Nationalist Action Party, currently the largest grouping in parliament, and the ultranationalist militants represented by the "Grey Wolves".
The Europhiles have the support of the vast majority of Turks. A recent poll shows that 62 per cent want to join the EU, although some of those polled said that they would like to move forward slowly. Of the 18 per cent who say they oppose, many do so because they fear EU membership will make Turkey dependent on the EU. Thirteen per cent were undecided and seven per cent had no opinion on the issue. Unfortunately, the power struggle between Europhobes and Europhiles will not be resolved ahead of the Copenhagen summit in December. Turkey's politicians are still dickering over whether to select 3 November as polling day. Ecevit, who originally accepted that date, now opposes an early election.
It is unlikely that Ecevit's rump coalition, and parliamentarians focusing on fresh elections, have the political will to take the hard decisions necessary to resolve the Cyprus problem and meet Europe's conditions to begin negotiations on EU membership. These conditions include abolishing the death penalty, and legislation barring the use of the Kurdish language in education and broadcasting. Both of these issues are red flags to the nationalist camp and the army. The EU proposed opening accession talks, if such legislation was passed, with the intention of encouraging Ankara to adopt a more flexible line over Cyprus.
This, however, has not yet happened.
In this context, three scenarios are likely to unfold towards the end of the year. The EU could approve the entry in 2004 of the Greek Cypriot majority Republic along with other candidates. It may also put the question of accession of the Turkish Cypriot north on hold until a settlement is achieved. This decision may prompt the annexation of the north by Turkey.
Hard-liners in Ankara have also warned that if the Greek Cypriots were to take steps to oppose annexation, Turkey would take military action. Greece, which has a defence treaty with the Republic, would be obliged to step in, risking a major war in the Eastern Mediterranean. The EU could postpone the approval of the island's entry, compelling Athens to deliver on its pledge to veto the rest of the candidates. This would halt the entire EU enlargement process.
On the other hand, an agreement could be reached to postpone the island's accession for a limited period. During this time the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders would be expected to achieve a political settlement. Should they fail, as a result of Turkish intransigence, the Greek Cypriot majority Republic would become a member of the EU.
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