Issue No. 596
Opinion
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25 - 31 July 2002 Issue No. 596 Opinion |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Diagnosing the nation
The UN Arab Development Report for 2002 is the first in the series to objectively analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the Arab world, offering a comprehensive diagnosis of the Arab condition. It has, in short, placed the entire Arab world under a microscope.
The report did not restrict itself to territory previously covered by UN development programme reports, which have been issued annually for a decade now and which tend to be restricted to per capita GNP, life expectancy rates, the percentage of educated adults ...etc.
For 2002, however, in addition to the usual subjects, the Report addressed itself to questions as diverse as individual freedoms, pollution levels, Arab involvement in the academic community, Internet use rates and the general delineation of the informatics scene.
The report registers a number of achievements made on the human development front: life expectancy has increased by 15 years during the past three decades while infant mortality decreased by two thirds. Female education rates have increased threefold in the same period.
It was also noticed that the region's population contains the greatest percentage of young people in the world, 38 per cent of the population being under the age of 14. In addition, the population is expected to leap from 280 million (the present figure) to 400 million over the next 20 years.
Sadly, the list of achievements quickly gives way to a set of shocking statistics. Arab illiteracy rates are significantly higher than those in significantly poorer countries. Some 65 million Arabs, including 10 million children (ages six-15), are illiterate. If present trends continue, the figure will rise to 40 per cent by 2015. Despite the great wealth that results from oil sales, total GNP for the entire Arab world does not exceed $531 billion, i.e. less than that of Spain.
That the Arab world, thankfully, remains unfamiliar with poverty rates that spill over into starvation is perhaps due to Islamic traditions of support for others. Yet one out of five Arabs still lives on $2 per day. Over the last 20 years income growth rates have never exceeded 0.5 per cent per annum. No society, with the exception of a handful of sub-Saharan African nations, has recorded lower income growth rates. At present rates the average Arab citizen would need 140 years to double his income. Other societies have done the same in less than a decade.
The slowing of economic growth to the point of stagnation will inevitably be reflected in unemployment rates, which now average 15 per cent -- among the highest rates in the world. In 2010, it is projected, 25 million people will be without employment.
The Report takes into account political and international circumstances impacting on the region. Political and military conflicts, sanctions and embargoes have harmed many economies in the region. Some nations have been bogged down by debts and losses accrued through conflicts. And then there are, of course, the obstacles presented by Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, which undermines progress and development.
It is impossible to separate the challenges of peace and those of human development; each affects the other. Nor can other aspects of human development be ignored. The issue is no longer restricted to ordinary criteria for human development, something the Report makes a point of emphasising as it points to the broader arenas of freedom, human rights, knowledge and environment.
The full implications of this Report, the first such diagnosis of the illnesses and wounds of the Arab world, cannot be discussed within the narrow scope of this column. I can only hope that the Report will be widely read, and that it may serve as a candle illuminating a possible way to the light at the end of the tunnel.
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