Issue No. 596
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25 - 31 July 2002 Issue No. 596 Region |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Turkey's ailing premier
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, trying to cling to power by any means, said he opposed an imminent US strike against Iraq. But officials in Washington are aware that it is Turkey's military who makes such decision, Gareth Jenkins writes from Ankara
Turkish politics descended into chaos last week as Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit desperately tried to cling on to power by attempting to backtrack on a pledge to hold early elections after opinion polls suggested that support for his Democratic Left Party (DLP) had fallen to less than 4 per cent.
On Tuesday he began a series of meetings with the leaders of the other parties represented in parliament in the almost-certainly vain hope of trying to persuade them to vote against holding early elections when parliament meets in an extraordinary session next Monday.
"Early polls will be dangerous for Turkey and the government," Ecevit warned, claiming that the early polls could see both the Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) and the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP) secure sizeable representations in parliament. But few doubt that the ailing 77 year-old Ecevit is mostly concerned about the impending end to his 45-year-old political career.
On Sunday Ecevit appeared on nationwide television to announce that the calls for early elections were all part of an international conspiracy to weaken Turkey, although he failed to give any details. Nor did he convince the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action Party (NAP), which is the largest party in the ruling tripartite coalition and usually the first to voice conspiracy theories.
"The election date is fixed. The process has started. It cannot be reversed," retorted NAP Chairman Devlet Bahceli.
Just days earlier Ecevit had agreed to hold polls on 3 November this year, 18 months ahead of schedule, after a string of resignations from the DLP had halved its representation in parliament and wiped out the coalition government's previous comfortable majority.
The resignations had been triggered by Ecevit's refusal to step down despite being confined to his house for over two months due to ill-health. Ecevit insists that he is now fully recovered but his appearance on television on Sunday was less than convincing. In a long and often rambling speech, Ecevit three times referred to US President George Bush as "President Johnson" and repeatedly confused northern Iraq with northern Cyprus.
On Monday the DLP defectors formally established a political party called New Turkey (NT) and elected former Foreign Minister Ismail Cem as their first chairman. Cem immediately declared that the NT was ready for elections and would campaign on a social democratic platform and closer ties with the EU. But, although both Cem and Economy Minister Kemal Dervis, who is expected to join the NT later in the summer, are popular with the urban middle classes, they hold little appeal for the mass of the population, who have borne the brunt of the deepest economic recession in living memory.
The political chaos in Turkey could not have come at a worse time for the US as it attempts to convince Ankara to support its expected military campaign to try to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. Turkish officials report that, during his visit to Ankara in mid-July, US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz indicated that Washington was planning to launch a strike against Iraq between November this year and February 2003. Given that no party is expected to win an overall majority in the 3 November elections, the US would probably be launching air strikes, and perhaps even deploying American troops, from bases in Turkey at a time when the country would be effectively without a government as Turkish politicians would be absorbed in protracted negotiations over the formation of a new coalition.
The Turkish public is vigorously opposed to a renewed US campaign against Iraq. With elections on the horizon, it is impossible for any Turkish politician to publicly support the planned US operation. In a half hour meeting on 17 July, Ecevit told Wolfowitz that the government was against a US military strike against Iraq, an opinion which Ecevit repeated during his television appearance on Sunday. But there are doubts as to how much weight Ecevit's opinions now hold.
"To be honest, Ecevit was mumbling so much in the meeting with Wolfowitz that even we had difficulty understanding what he was saying, much less the Americans," said a Turkish official.
Few doubt that the final decision will be taken not by the Turkish government but by the Turkish general staff. Privately, Turkish officials admit that they have effectively already told Washington that, if the Bush administration is determined to press ahead, they will support a US military operation if only to ensure that Turkey can play a role in the shaping of post-Saddam Iraq. But they insist that they expect a payback for their support. At the meetings with Wolfowitz, Turkish officials presented what amounted to a shopping list ranging from continued access to IMF funds to the cancellation of debts and the supply of military equipment.
"We don't really have any choice," said a source close to the Turkish military. "We may need more IMF money next year and we can't get that without American support. There are also some other things they can do, such as writing off some of our debts. But our support won't be unconditional. We have told them that we can never accept the creation of a Kurdish state in the north of Iraq. At the moment they say that they agree but the only way we can make sure that they keep their word is to become involved in the operation as well."
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