Issue No. 597
International
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1 - 7 August 2002 Issue No. 597 International |
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As Kashmir heats up again
US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to South Asia comes at a time of growing tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, writes Iffat Malik from Islamabad
Kashmir is back in the headlines again. There was a brief lull in hostilities after the attack on an army camp in Jammu and the assassination of Kashmiri separatist leader, Abdul Ghani Lone, in May. Indeed, for over a month, both the Indian-administered state and the border between India and Pakistan remained calm. No longer.
The first incident to shatter the calm was an attack by militants, disguised as Hindu priests, on the slum area of Qasim Nigar, just outside Jammu. 27 slum dwellers were murdered in the late evening assault and the killers escaped into nearby forests. Last Wednesday, a grenade attack on a crowded bus-stop in the town of Anantnag injured 24. The following day, militants threw a grenade into a bunker of the paramilitary Border Security Force in Batmaloo, near Srinagar. Although the grenade missed its intended target, it exploded in a nearby street, injuring 15 civilians.
On the weekend three activists for the National Conference, the pro-India party that rules Kashmir, were shot dead. A spokesman for militant group, Jamiat- al-Mujahideen, claimed responsibility for the killings. In previous months, such attacks have elicited a knee-jerk reaction from the Indian government; blaming "Pakistan-sponsored terrorists". On this occasion, members of Vajpayee's administration did eventually blame Islamabad, but took much longer to do so than in the past.
The reason for this hesitant response is that -- under both Indian and international pressure -- Pakistan has already taken concrete steps to stop militants crossing the line of control (LOC) into India. Last week, just one day before the Qasim Nagar massacre, US officials acknowledged a significant decline in infiltration by Pakistan-backed militants into Indian Kashmir. US officials warned that this decline should be permanent.
India's newly appointed Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha, insisted on blaming Pakistan, accusing it of reneging on its promise to curb infiltration. His accusation was based more on historical enmity and convenience, than actual fact. Even with the LOC sealed off, there are hundreds of militants operating within Indian Kashmir. They are fighting for secession from India, and will keep up their struggle irrespective of Pakistan's policy changes. It is these militants who are continuing their activities in Indian Kashmir. But for New Delhi to acknowledge this would be tantamount to an admission of failure by its own security forces, hundreds of thousands of whom are deployed in Kashmir. Thus, it is far easier to blame Islamabad.
There is another theory being put forward by some analysts. They claim that the recent attacks in Indian Kashmir have been carried out by groups linked to, or at least sympathetic to, Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qa'eda network. In recent weeks they have been engaged in clashes with Pakistani troops in the tribal areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan. As Islamabad clamps down on Al- Qa'eda activists there, sympathisers in Kashmir are trying to deflect attention by stirring up war between India and Pakistan.
This might sound a bit far-fetched, but the risk of war definitely exists. India and Pakistan have had thousands of troops deployed along the LOC and international border since December 2001. At one point tensions were so high that war appeared imminent. In recent weeks that possibility has receded, but as long as troops remain in position, it could return.
Islamabad's stance is that it has done all it can to relieve tension, and that it is now up to India to start the process of de-escalation by agreeing to bilateral talks. Jack Straw, the British foreign minister, visited both capitals recently. President Musharraf refused to grant him a meeting, a clear signal that he feels it is India the British should be pressing, not Pakistan.
New Delhi's position is that Pakistan has still not done enough to demonstrate a permanent end to its traditional policy of supporting Kashmiri militancy. It would like to see steps taken to dismantle training camps it alleges are still operating in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Most neutral analysts attribute New Delhi's continued belligerence to domestic political compulsions, rather than Pakistani actions. The Vajpayee government has come under great pressure in recent months, especially after the communal riots in the state of Gujarat. It needs the distraction of a dispute with Pakistan to deflect attention from its own failings and ensure its own survival in power.
As mentioned above, so long as thousands of troops continue to face each other in a state of high alert, war cannot be ruled out. Hence Jack Straw's visit to the region, and the recent trip by US Secretary of State Colin Powell. Unlike previous visits when he predominantly urged Pakistan to comply with Indian demands, Powell was expected to put pressure on India to reciprocate Pakistan's compliance, by pulling back its troops and starting dialogue.
Few analysts expect India to withdraw its troops before state elections in Indian-Kashmir, that are scheduled for October. The elections present a big challenge to the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, the umbrella organisation of secessionist political parties in Kashmir. In the past it has always boycotted elections administered by New Delhi, but now -- deprived of Pakistani support for militancy -- it could conclude that it has no option but to seek a political solution on Indian terms.
October's elections could also mark the end of the tense stand-off between India and Pakistan. Alternatively, it could lead to another bout of internal and regional hostilities. The future of millions depends on the outcome.
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