Issue No. 597
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1 - 7 August 2002 Issue No. 597 Region |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Too many cooks
Saber rattling in Washington is bringing to the fore latent differences among Iraqi dissident groups, writes Salah Hemeid
The United States has invited six Iraqi opposition groups to Washington next week for talks on its efforts to unseat Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, a leader of one of the groups told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Hamid Al-Bayati, the London-based representative of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said his organisation received an invitation to the discussions signed by US Undersecretary of State Marc Grossman and Undersecretary of Defence Douglas J Feith.
In a telephone interview, Al-Bayati said the Iran-based leadership of the mainly Shi'ite council has yet to decide whether to attend the meeting that is also to be attended by representatives of the US-backed Iraqi National Congress, the Iraqi National Accord, the small Constitutional Monarchy Movement, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
State Department spokesman Frederick Jones and Lieutenant Colonel David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman, confirmed that the invitations were made and said the meeting which would be hosted by Grossman and Feith was planned for either 9 or 16 August to coordinate work with the Iraqi opposition.
The US is sounding out Hussein's opponents on the support they would give towards a possible assault on Iraq, widely speculated to be launched late this year or early next year. The Iraqi opposition and other experts said the invitation suggested the administration had realised that the battle for influence within the opposition was hampering plans to overthrow the Iraqi government.
In June, officials of President George W Bush's administration discussed preparations for a post-Hussein Iraq with representatives of the Supreme Council, the National Accord and of the two Kurdish groups who are the main powers in the Kurdish enclave of northern Iraq, which is beyond the control of the Baghdad government.
While officials in various agencies have met individually with Iraqi opposition leaders, this is the first time so many figures in the opposition movement are to meet jointly with officials from the state and defence departments. In recent months, the two departments have sparred over which factions in the Iraqi opposition are the most reliable allies and offer the most hope for a future government.
Al-Bayati said that no agenda has been set for the discussions, but he expected that the administration would outline the role it expects opposition groups to play in executing the plans to topple the Iraqi leader and in forging a new government in Baghdad.
Bush, who seems focused for now on covert action, signed an order earlier this year directing the CIA to increase support to Iraqi opposition groups and allowing for the use of CIA and Special Forces teams against Hussein.
The disparate factions that make up the Iraqi opposition, divided along sectarian, ethnic and political lines, have constantly competed for influence with the US. Signs that an American strike is looming have heightened rivalries and aroused fear in some factions that they might be excluded from any power-sharing formula if they are not actively involved in the American plans.
While resigning themselves to the inevitability of US meddling in Iraqi affairs, many dissidents privately expressed concern that the Bush administration is only using major opposition groups like the Shi'ite council and the two main Kurdish parties as a sort of a smoke-screen. The US's actual plans, contend some dissidents, are for an Afghan style regime change that will put long-time Iraqi allies and associates at the helm of the regime the US plans to install in Baghdad.
Apart from the six groups, many smaller opposition factions have expressed reservations about being left out of the Iraqi end game. Last month former Iraqi military officers gathered in London to discuss their role in a possible effort to oust Hussein and insisted that the army should not be ignored. A meeting for another military faction is expected to be held in Denmark later this month.
Undoubtedly, any American-led regime change in Baghdad will raise the temperature of the governments of the region, prompting them to search for fresh positions in the new US imposed order. Though these governments have publicly rejected the American attack against Iraq, Middle East observers suggest that they may be pursuing hidden agendas quite distinct from their loud anti-strike rhetoric.
Observers point to Iran, for example, which despite its public opposition to the American schemes has cast a blind eye at or even encouraged the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq to engage the Americans. Iran, it seems, has learnt from its experience in Afghanistan, where it supported the US's war, but ended up sidelined in post-Taliban Afghanistan.
Jordan, which has repeatedly announced its opposition to an American strike against Iraq, has been unable to explain why the US military has upgraded two Jordanian bases close to its border with Iraq, preparing them to receive US aircraft and tanks. The attendance of the London meeting by Jordan's former crown prince, Hassan, prompted speculation about a possible royal Hashemite role in post-Hussein Iraq.
In Turkey, politicians publicly voiced criticism and apprehension about the consequences of US actions. In private, however, they talk about a Turkish role in post-Hussein Iraq that would give the small Turkish speaking minority in Iraq a bigger say in determining the country's future.
Such a dichotomy exists in Syria, which still hosts many of Hussein's opponents and even allowed its Iraqi branch of the ruling Ba'ath Party to join a new opposition alliance to work towards ousting Hussein. As in the 1991 Gulf War, pragmatic Syria is expected to join the winning party should it become evident that the Bush administration means business in Iraq.
As for Saudi Arabia, which last month received Jalal Talabani the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, it seems to be preoccupied with preparations to topple Hussein despite its public opposition to a US military strike.
Disunity coupled with disparity between publicly announced goals and those pursued away from the eyes of citizens and the media can only add to the challenges the US faces in toppling Hussein, let alone installing a new regime.
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