Al-Ahram Weekly | Region | 'Not guns for hire'

		1 - 7 August 2002 Issue No. 597 Region	Current issue Previous issue Site map
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'Not guns for hire'
Despite expectations that the US will go after Baghdad sooner or later, Kurds in Iraq are not sure that war would serve their interests, Maggy Zanger writes after a visit to Arabil

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Kurds go about their daily lives despite US threats to attack Iraq
Across northern Iraq during the hot windy days of early summer, all the talk in the souqs, cafés and city parks was focused on two important global events: the World Cup and a threatened US attack on the country.
While there was little agreement on the streets on who would or should win the World Cup, there was near unanimous agreement on why the US would not attack Iraq. "The Americans could have killed Saddam anytime in his bed if they'd wanted to," says a contractor in the provincial city of Koya who had just returned from a trip to Baghdad. "They haven't, so the people believe he must be a US agent."
Kurdish leaders, on the other hand, think the US is quite serious, but are equally sceptical of US intentions. They have recently been in regular contact with the US government -- at a high level, in at least one instance. Although Kurds say they have seen no concrete plans, they think the Americans will probably attack early next year. In the meantime, they are positioning themselves to make sure the achievements in the Kurd's "golden age" are not blown away in a war that serves US interests, but not those of the Iraqi people.
"We are concerned that we may be hurt in the process," says Barham Salih, prime minister of the Kurdish administration based in Sulimaniyah. "We are seeking international guarantees for our security and we are trying to let our neighbours know that we have no desire to harm anyone," he says in reference to Turkey, Iran and Arab countries. "We want to protect our people and preserve our situation."
Since 1992, the Kurds have enjoyed self-rule in three northern governorates under the leadership of two main political parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Under this leadership, Kurds, Assyrian Christians, Yezidis and Turkomans enjoy freedoms unheard of in Iraq and in most of the Middle East. There is near total freedom of the press and association -- scores of political parties espousing ideologies ranging from communist to Islamist are registered, operate freely and publish hundreds of newspapers and journals. Satellite television reception is completely unfettered, as is Internet access.
But most important to people in the Kurdish enclave, is the fact that they have been free from the extreme repression suffered under the Ba'ath Party that culminated in the genocidal Anfal campaign of the late 1980s when more than 200,000 people were killed outright or went missing.
While Kurds have every reason to want to see Saddam Hussein's regime relegated to the dust heap of history, they are leery of the US's proclivity for covert action and palace coups. "The Iraqi issue will not be solved by military or covert action," says Mas'ud Barzani, leader of the KDP. "It is a political question."
Reports were "leaked" in mid-June that US President George W Bush had approved covert action to bring down President Hussein's regime. All Kurdish political and military leaders were adamant in their rejection of support for any US-sponsored covert action. "Let me be very clear on this," Barzani said, "We do not support any covert military action. We would like transparency and clarity."
Kurds frequently point out that they were twice bitten by a US snake having worked covertly with the US but subsequently left hanging to face the wrath of the Iraqi regime when political conditions changed and the US backed out. Many were killed.
A covert plan to topple the Iraqi regime is but one of several possible scenarios that have been presented by US media pundits.
An internal military coup, long the favoured method of change by the US, is unlikely to succeed against the heavily security conscious and brutally repressive Iraqi regime. In addition, as Salih says, "The future lies in democratic change, not a palace coup."
Another option, a Northern Alliance-like scenario where the Kurds would spearhead an attack from their mountain enclave, is often rejected outright with vague references to the "fractious" Kurdish parties.
The most recently leaked option envisions a major bombing campaign in conjunction with a ground invasion of up to 250,000 troops from Jordan, Kuwait and Turkey.
While not mentioned specifically, the Kurds, who hold an area the size of Switzerland, could make a significant contribution to any land invasion. They are lightly armed for defensive purposes at the moment, but with heavy weaponry and some training they could be in the northern suburbs of Baghdad before Jordanian troops cross the border.
The current 60,000-plus Kurdish troops (and their Assyrian, Turkoman and Yezid brothers) in the self- rule area are all volunteers; none are conscripts. Military leaders say they could increase their army to 200,000 in short order, by mobilising people who had years of experience fighting the central government alongside a few others. Iraqi Kurdish military prowess against successive regimes is near legendary and they have never resorted to using terrorist tactics against the Iraqi people.
But the Kurds are wisely negotiating with the US to ensure that any participation in a "regime change" will result in a better life for themselves along with all Iraqis. "We are not interested in changing a dictator for another," Prime Minister Salih says. "We really have to be very cautious in the way we proceed. But make no mistake, this care that we exercise in the articulation of our position in no way, shape or form, should distract us from our main commitment to the cause of democracy in Iraq. We cannot sustain what we have without some form of democratic government with constitutional guarantees for our future in Baghdad."
A near-mantra expounded by people from virtually across the Kurdish political spectrum is that they seek a democratic, pluralistic Iraq within a federal framework. This has been the stated goal of the Kurds since they first formed their regional parliament in 1992. Part of the reason for the constant reaffirmation of their long-stated advocacy of federalism is to assuage neighbouring Turkey, which has repeatedly expressed fear that the Kurds seek an independent state.
In mid-July meetings with US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, Turkey agreed to assist the US in military action against Iraq after months of publicly opposing US action. It appears that in exchange, Turkey has asked Washington to relieve it of its $5 billion debt. And Wolfowitz seems to have convinced the Turks that the US will not allow an independent Kurdish state. The Iraqi Kurds have no problem with this. For better or for worse, they have hitched their future to Iraq.
But they, too, have their conditions for supporting the US. "I remind you," Salih says, "we fought the present government of Iraq at a time when the United States was supporting the present government of Iraq. We are struggling for freedom and we have the cause of our people. We are not guns for hire."
Meanwhile the people of Iraq wait to see what the future holds. Are they afraid of a US attack, a reporter asks the contractor from Koya. "They are afraid of the regime," he says quietly.

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