Al-Ahram Weekly | International | Pakistani repentance

		8 - 14 August 2002 Issue No. 598 International	Current issue Previous issue Site map
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Pakistani repentance
From Islamabad, Iffat Malik reports, in two separate stories, on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's groundbreaking visit to Bangladesh and the latest on the political rifts dividing the Afghan leadership

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An Afghan stands in a windowless room that locals want to turn into a classroom in Kandahar Province. The very problems saddling Kandahar, the former Taliban stronghold, its harsh climate, uprooted masses, uncleared land mines and crumbling infrastructure are keeping many aid workers away from the needy region
Kashmir was high on the agenda of diplomatic efforts in South Asia last week: it dominated US Secretary of State Colin Powell's trip to the region, and was the underlying theme of a three-country tour by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.
Colin Powell paid his third visit to the Indian subcontinent since October, part of an eight- country tour aimed at bolstering support for the US war against terror. Previous visits have followed a predictable pattern regarding Kashmir, namely urging the Pakistan government to comply with Indian demands and stop supporting militancy in the Indian-administered state.
This trip, though, was different. Powell struck a line that was much closer to the Pakistani position on the issue. He did not go so far as to endorse President Musharraf's claim that militant infiltration across the Line of Control (LOC) has ceased, but he did acknowledge it was reduced. Powell pressed India to respond to the decrease by taking more "de- escalatory measures". The Indians rejected that plea, saying Pakistan had to do a lot more to curb Kashmiri militancy.
Other statements by Powell -- that Kashmir is an international issue, that there should be international monitors present to verify the fairness of state elections in October, and that India should release Kashmiri political prisoners -- delighted the Pakistanis, and produced an equally strong negative reaction in New Delhi. In a session of the Indian Lok Sabha (parliament) just after Powell's departure, legislators vented their fury at the American suggestion. "We are a flourishing democracy. We don't need to be lectured on how to conduct elections," shouted a member from Bihar.
On Friday the Indian Chief Election Commissioner J M Lyngdoh announced a four- phase schedule for state elections, running from 16 September to 8 October. He was even more scathing in his rejection of the international monitoring proposal: "We believe observing means white-man coming and observing what the native is doing. If somebody wants to come they can come in their individual capacity, and they will not represent these commissions."
Colin Powell left the region claiming "the possibility of a dialogue in the near future is something that can be achieved". Few analysts share his optimism. The general consensus is that nothing -- neither de-escalation nor war -- will happen before October's state elections. From the Indian perspective that month has additional significance. National legislative elections are scheduled in Pakistan for 10 October. New Delhi could be waiting to see what kind of civilian government emerges before deciding which course to pursue vis-à-vis its neighbour.
The impending elections in Pakistan are keeping President Musharraf extremely busy. He is putting the final touches to constitutional amendments, aimed at ensuring a system of "checks and balances" on the new government. Others interpret their aim as ensuring Musharraf's continued hold on power. Last week he took time out from election preparations to carry out a quick tour of the region.
The overt purpose of the tour -- taking in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and a 10-hour stopover in China -- was to boost bilateral relations and especially trade. But the underlying purpose was to increase support for Pakistan in its dispute with India over Kashmir. In Bangladesh, the first country President Musharraf visited and the first time he has been there since seizing power, he went out of his way to strike a conciliatory note.
Up to 1971, Bangladesh was actually East Pakistan -- together with West Pakistan (modern-day Pakistan) it formed one country. Prolonged discrimination by the dominant West against the East led to a secessionist movement there in 1971. With Indian help, it was successful in achieving independence in December 1971. The Pakistani army suffered a humiliating defeat at Indian hands. There were also allegations of widespread human rights abuses by Pakistani troops against Bengali civilians.
Even today the 1971 war is hardly ever mentioned in Pakistan. If it is, the general line is to blame India for the break-up of the country: little effort has been made to acknowledge the mistakes made by West Pakistani leaders and the army. Seen against this backdrop, President Musharraf's trip was extremely significant. He went to Savar, outside Dacca, and laid a wreath at a memorial for civilian victims of the 1971 war. Signing the visitors' book, he expressed "regret" about what had happened in that war. That is the closest any Pakistani leader has come to apologising to the Bangladeshis. While students and some opposition leaders wanted much more from their visitor, Prime Minister Khaleda Zia voiced her appreciation for his conciliatory gestures.
In Sri Lanka, the President signed a Free Trade Agreement with the Colombo government that will remove all trade barriers between the two countries by 2005. In a speech at a state dinner, he made reference to his last trip to the country in 1999. During that visit, the then- Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tried to appoint a new army chief, thereby prompting the military coup that brought Musharraf to power. Sri Lanka has had a difficult relationship with its dominant neighbour India because of New Delhi's role in the Tamil conflict. Musharraf was probably hoping to play on those difficulties, and draw Sri Lanka closer to Pakistan.
Musharraf's final "stopover" was in China, where he met the Chinese President Jiang Xemin. The focus of their talks was the Indo-Pak dispute. While the Chinese President urged dialogue to ease tensions between the two countries, Musharraf gave the assurance that Pakistan did not want to be involved in a war and would not start one.
Back in Islamabad, Musharraf can reflect on a good week for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. The diplomatic pendulum finally appears to be swinging back in Islamabad's favour.

Challenges for Karzai
When Afghan President Hamid Karzai was appointed chairman of the interim administration, and subsequently president, the expectation was that, given time, he would be able to erode the power of regional warlords and establish his authority throughout the country.
American and international assistance for reconstruction and building up a national Afghan army would assist him in achieving this. Sadly, those expectations have not been realised. The Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance remains as powerful and influential as it was in the immediate aftermath of the Taliban's fall. Karzai has been able to do little to counter its dominance. Two months ago he was forced to reappoint senior Northern Alliance figures Mohamed Fahim and Abdullah Abdullah as, respectively, defence and foreign minister.
In recent weeks, tensions between Karzai and his Northern Alliance ministers, particularly Mohamed Fahim, have grown. Fahim is one of those suspected of responsibility for the assassination of Abdul Qadir. Qadir was a minister in Karzai's administration, one of three Vice Presidents and, most significantly, a Pathan. He was gunned down four weeks ago as he left his Ministry in Kabul.
It has also just been revealed that in the mid-1990s, Karzai, then deputy foreign minister, was detained by the intelligence services and interrogated. The head of the agency was Mohamed Fahim. Qadir's murder led Karzai to ask for the United States' assistance in providing his personal security.
Washington and its allies were happy to comply. As US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld explained: "We agree that it's important that the Afghan people not have an interruption in their leadership, having just completed that process."
The threat to Karzai was hammered home by the interception of a suicide bomber in Kabul. A man described as a foreigner was caught driving a vehicle packed with explosives. Under interrogation, he apparently confessed that he had planned to drive into Karzai's car. The Afghan President's decision to seek US protection clearly shows his lack of faith in his own security services, headed by Mohamed Fahim. No surprise then that it was not well received by the defence minister.
It is also not good for Karzai's image generally. Many Afghans already see him as an American stooge, and the presence of US bodyguards will only reinforce that impression. But there are growing signs that the president is swapping the conciliatory approach he has taken towards his internal rivals for a more confrontational one. Fahim is still in control of the intelligence services, whose loyalties are to him rather than to Karzai. They are dominated by Tajiks and operate in a secretive and violent manner. There are widespread allegations of torture and murder by intelligence agents.
At the end of July a 22-year-old Afghan refugee returned from Pakistan to his native land, having left at the age of two. Abdel Mutaleb's family allege that he was picked up by Tajik intelligence agents because of his Pathan accent, and that they subsequently tortured and burnt him. Mutaleb died after being in a coma in hospital for two weeks. The security services say he committed suicide, but the family accuse them of murder.
In a clear challenge to the independence of the intelligence services and the authority of Mohamed Fahim, Karzai has ordered an enquiry into Abdul Mutaleb's death. Taking on the security services is a formidable task. A senior Interior Ministry official outlined the problems Karzai will face: "It's totally controlled by one faction, and they have expanded the department and recruited loyal members. It is the department to protect their power."
On the plus side, Karzai at least has the knowledge that his efforts to restrain the notorious intelligence agencies have widespread support among ordinary Pathans. A significant reason why Hamid Karzai has not made much progress in asserting his authority in Afghanistan, or even in the capital, is lack of international support. Repeated calls for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to be deployed outside Kabul have fallen on deaf ears. Huge amounts of reconstruction assistance pledged to the Afghan administration at the Tokyo Conference have not been delivered. Without funds, the government can do little to start large-scale reconstruction projects, which would provide jobs, and hence give Afghans an alternative to fighting in the various regional militias.
The national Afghan army was supposed to compensate Karzai for lack of military power -- something that puts him at a clear disadvantage to the heavily armed warlords. But recruitment and training of the army has proceeded much more slowly than hoped. Last month, in a public display of unity that masked their internal differences, Karzai and Fahim attended the graduation ceremony of the first 350 recruits to the national army. The battalion originally had 500 recruits, but 150 dropped out because they were not satisfied with the salaries they would receive.
Unless Karzai can overcome the recruitment problem, construction of a new national army will be slow. That, in turn, means the chances of him establishing his authority throughout Afghanistan, and overcoming the warlords, are extremely remote.

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