Issue No. 599
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15 - 21 August 2002 Issue No. 599 Region |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Between the devil and the deep blue sea
Jordan seriously fears the consequences of the expected US strike against Iraq, Al-Ahram Weekly's special correspondent reports from Amman
Jordan is hoping for some miracle to happen and avert a US war on Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein amid growing signs that President George W Bush could order strikes against Baghdad any time now.
"The kingdom is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea and its options are limited," said an official who asked not to be identified. He added that Amman could not rally support for the American action against Iraq because of growing anti-American feelings among both components of the Jordanian society: Palestinians and Jordanians. He also listed the threat of internal economic backlash since a number of Jordanian factories have Iraq as their sole export market, possible interruption of the flow of semi-free oil from Iraq, and the security repercussions from an upheaval in its eastern neighbour.
Jordan, however, cannot afford to be too vocal in its criticism of the prospective American strike in view of its strong relations with Washington and partial dependence on American financial and military assistance.
In the last several meetings with Bush, King Abdullah sought to sway the US president from launching military action against Iraq, and cited the negative repercussions of such action in the region, which is already edging towards instability because of the Israeli military assaults against the Palestinians.
However, Bush seemed oblivious to Jordan's concerns. Though it is believed that he had offered assurances to the king that the US would ensure that Jordan does not suffer from the Iraq crisis. How far the king could ride on those promises is a matter of conjecture and speculation, Jordanian analysts believe.
Making things worse for Jordan were reports in the American press that the kingdom's territory will be one of the launching pads for military strikes against Iraq, a charge that Amman denied vehemently.
However, there are Arab analysts who argue that Jordan would not really have a choice if the US demanded its co- operation in anti-Iraq action.
Then there was the controversial presence of King Abdullah's uncle, former Crown Prince Hassan, at a meeting of Iraqi dissidents in London last month.
Although Prince Hassan repeatedly affirmed that his presence there reflected no Jordanian official position and he was there in his personal capacity, many critics in Jordan continue to argue that it was Jordan's way of playing both ends against the middle.
King Abdullah has distanced himself from Prince Hassan for attending the London meeting, but that has not done much to dilute criticism.
There are even those who jump to conclusions and subscribe to the theory that Prince Hassan might have made a "deal" with the Americans on his own and cite what they see as his frustration over having been denied the throne after having acted as crown prince for 34 years.
Officials reject these allegations and say that Prince Hassan does not represent Jordanian policy towards Iraq and that the kingdom remains firmly opposed to any military action targeting Baghdad and believes that diplomacy and dialogue should be the means to resolve the stand-off over arms inspections.
However, with US Under-Secretary of State James Bolton making it clear that Washington was determined to oust Saddam regardless of arms inspections, Jordanian worries are mounting.
Opposition groups in Amman are vociferous in their criticism of the regime, and are sure to make life difficult in the kingdom as and when the US launches military action against Iraq. They have enough ammunition to press their campaign against the regime, particularly the rising popular anger that the US is targeting Iraq for attack while it is giving a free hand to Israel against the Palestinians. Observers believe that such official fear of public anger was behind the king's decision this week to postpone parliament elections for the second time till March 2003. After the king dissolved the parliament in June, he announced that new elections would be adjourned till September this year.
One thing is clear: Jordan could not afford to be a party to military strikes against Iraq. The risks and dangers to the stability and security of the kingdom are too high for King Abdullah to go along with the US plan, but Amman could not expect Washington to shelve its designs for the sake of the kingdom either.
Jordan's only hope is to work with Arab states in a campaign to dissuade Bush from pursuing his determined oust- Saddam campaign. The Arab campaign has not produced much result so far despite warnings from countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states against military action to oust Saddam. It is, however the only game in town, and Jordan has to pin its hopes on its success.
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