Al-Ahram Weekly | Region

		22 - 28 August 2002 Issue No. 600 Region	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

Royal anxiety
Jordan's King Abdullah, having decided to postpone parliamentary elections for a second time, appealed to his people to show patience, writes Galal Nassar from Amman

In a speech to the nation, last Thursday, Jordan's King Abdullah Bin Hussein announced the decision to postpone parliamentary elections for a second time. Linking his decision to the situation in Palestine and Iraq and to potential instability at home, he explained that Jordan was being targeted by outside forces, intent upon exploiting the current circumstances to jeopardise national security and stability. He explained that the elections could serve as a tool for unleashing destabilising elements.
The Jordanian monarch's tone of urgency was palpable as he addressed television cameras in his office, clearly visible in the background were a picture of his father, the late King Hussein, in Palestinian dress, and another of the young king with his Palestinian-American wife, Rania.
King Abdullah has much to to be anxious about. Jordan by all economic, political, military and demographic standards is a small and weak country. Surrounded by much more powerful nations on all sides -- Israel to the west, Syria to the north, Iraq to the east and Saudi Arabia to the south -- Jordan, throughout its relatively brief history, has literally been caught in the centre of their various conflicts and rivalries, with the result of a virtually uninterrupted succession of tensions and crises.
Demographically, Jordan is also unique. With more than 80 per cent of the population of Palestinian origin and 10 Palestinian refugee camps registered with UNRWA, it was hardly surprising to see a powerful upsurge in anti-Israeli and anti-American feelings following the collapse of the Palestinian-Israel peace process last year and the subsequent outbreak of the Intifada.
As tensions heightened between the US and Iraq, Jordan's predicament grew direr. While the government is constrained by the various political, economic and military aspects of its relations with Washington, the Jordanian people shun the language of political pragmatism in dealing with Iraq. They sympathise strongly with the plight of the Iraqi people and they would vehemently oppose any cooperation on the part of their government in the event of a US-led attack on Iraq.
But the government is also under pressure from the Jordanian business community, eager to re- establish full commercial relations with Iraq. The Jordanian economy fell into sharp decline since the imposition of sanctions against Iraq 11 years ago. The blockade has impeded both the flow of free oil and economic aid from its eastern neighbour. Simultaneously, the rise of the population to five million, some 75 per cent of which is under 30 has rendered the unemployment crisis all the more acute in the absence of investments and new business ventures.
Addressing Jordanian youth, King Abdullah reiterated his plea for patience and promised that a brighter future lay just around the corner. The hint of despair was unmistakable, however.
The king and the people are fully aware that Jordan is soon to pay an enormous political and economic price for whatever decision it takes, whether in support of the impending US strike on Iraq or against it. Washington, for its part, remains adamantly deaf to the Jordanian point of view, which King Abdullah attempted to explain during his recent trip to the US and the UK. Under no circumstances can he declare support for an attack on Iraq, even if its aim is to topple Saddam Hussein and alleviate the suffering of the Iraqi people, he told officials in Washington and London. Nor would his people forgive him for supporting the US. The majority of the Jordanian population are Palestinians, angered by Washington's flagrant support for the coalition government of Ariel Sharon. The king pleaded that he had supported the US in Afghanistan, in spite of the unpopularity of that war in Jordan. In exchange, he would like to be let off the hook on Iraq.
The crux of Jordan's predicament with the West resides in the western view of Jordan as a permanent friend and ally, whose commitment to serve western interests also serves its own interests. Jordan is highly dependent upon western aid.
The tone for Jordan's relationship with the West was set in Winston Churchill's famous boast: "I created Jordan with a stroke of the pen one Sunday afternoon." Churchill was only half joking. In the wake of World War I, as Britain and France were divvying up the Middle East, London set its sights on the mountainous desert terrain between Palestine and Iraq, created the state initially called the Transjordan and crowned an Arab prince as its king.
During the war, the British had taken advantage of the Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire, which still controlled the Levant at the time. The Transjordan, which had essentially been an administrative no-man's-land, was one of the fruits of this campaign. Declared a state in 1921, the British installed Prince Abdullah, son of the former Sherif of Mecca and grandfather of the current king, as its nominal ruler. Since its creation, Jordan remained materially, militarily and politically dependent on Great Britain, until it attained full independence in 1946, when Abdullah was declared king of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
In 1948, the creation of the state of Israel and the first Arab-Israeli war brought the first massive wave of Palestinian refugees into Jordan. While many of the refugees were settled in UNRWA camps, a greater portion received Jordanian citizenship and thus came to form the majority of Jordan's population.
If Jordan's friends and allies tend to overlook this demographic reality, the government in Amman cannot afford to, especially now that it must show more consideration than ever to the sentiments of its Palestinian citizens, whose brethren across the border have been exposed to horrendous Israeli repression for nearly two years.
Yet, in spite of the pressure from below, Amman has remained committed to its peace treaty with Israel. As King Abdullah put it in his speech last Thursday, this commitment is Jordan's first line of defence against the provocations of Sharon, who is seeking to drag Jordan and Israel's other Arab neighbours into a regional war.
As though to demonstrate their intentions, Jordanian authorities recently arrested more than 20 Palestinians attempting to infiltrate from Jordan into Israel and the occupied territories. Authorities also arrested 10 Jordanian citizens alleged to be Al-Qa'eda members about to carry out terrorist operations against US and Israeli interests in Jordan. Leading this group of recent returnees from Afghanistan was Wael Al-Shalabi, a Jordanian of Palestinian origin who had returned to Jordan from Afghanistan in April. Their defence attorney, Mohamed Duwaik, has declared that Washington's pro-Israeli policy has fueled hatred and violence against the US and its interests, creating a climate that breeds extremist elements.
All the "elements" suspected of planning terrorist operations are radical Islamists. Jordan is the only Arab country that has not banned Islamist parties and groups. The Palestinian Intifada, the sanctions against Iraq and Amman's close relations with the US have worked to augment the popularity of the various Islamist trends among Jordanian youth, especially those of Palestinian origin. That this significant segment of the population has become the linchpin in any elections is why the king opted to postpone elections for a second time.
From now until next spring when the elections are scheduled, King Abdullah will be in a battle against time as he seeks to strengthen the hand of moderate political parties. Simultaneously, he must effect some tangible improvement in the economy, for which he will require large doses of foreign aid. As he acknowledged in his speech last Thursday, although the Jordanian economy has experienced an upswing, ordinary citizens have yet to feel its effects. Also, in this crucial interim, the Jordanian monarch must double his efforts at opening Washington's eyes to the intricacies of Jordanian society and politics. Given the highly charged climate in Jordan at present, any decision Amman takes with regard to US policy towards Iraq is certain to yield dire repercussions that will be difficult to handle under the current economic, military, political and social circumstances.

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