Issue No. 601
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29 August - 4 Sept. 2002 Issue No. 601 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Colombia's death dance
The president of Colombia, Alvaro Uribe, has had little luck in convincing his neighbours to support his hardline efforts against rebels, writes Hisham El-Naggar
The more pessimistic among Latin Americans look at Colombia and see the problems of their own countries magnified many times over. The militancy of left-wing forces led by the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), the lawlessness of brutal "counter-insurgency" paramilitary groups and the resulting civil war are problems that have plagued many countries in Latin America. However in Colombia the problems seem more deadly and permanent.
Colombia's civil war is about to turn bloodier. Actually, the country is unique. In fact, most of its neighbours are dealing with more mundane issues such as the economy and urban crime. Perhaps that explains the perception held by many neighbouring governments that a conflict, similar to that in Colombia, is something that can be easily avoided by not getting involved in the Colombian conflict.
The appeal of newly elected right-wing Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe, to his country's neighbours to "coordinate" policy with him was coolly received. Despite the cool reception, coordination is exactly what is needed to end the Colombian conflict. The country has 6,341 kms of mostly porous borders. If Uribe is to oblige his campaign promises, and clamp down on the rebels, he must get help from his neighbours. FARC rebels have become famous for moving easily across the porous borders and avoiding capture.
It is clear that Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Panama -- who all share a border with Colombia -- have no desire to see the violence spill over into their territory. So far it has not, the guerrillas have made no visible attempts to permanently establish themselves outside of Colombia's borders or to spread the existing conflict.
A point of contention in the region is the US-backed "Colombia Plan". The plan, which has been pushed by the Bush administration, labels the FARC rebels as a "terrorist organisation". It accuses the group of profiting from a multi-billion dollar a year drug trafficking ring. Not all Latin Americans agree, both of these points are contentious in Colombia and surrounding countries. FARC has been established as a revolutionary organisation for years, and they do not have a monopoly on the drug trade emanating from the region. In addition, FARC's brutal paramilitary opponents, who enjoy tacit governmental support, have established a reign of terror throughout the country. However, most question whether a full-scale civil insurrection can be solved through military action.
One thing remains clear, the conciliatory policy pursued by the outgoing president, Andres Pastrana, has disappointed a majority of Colombians. FARC used the ease in government counter-actions to expand their territorial control in rural areas. That is why Uribe, who made no bones about being a hardliner, won the presidential election.
Even though the voters supported Uribe and gave him a clear mandate to solve the civil war, many are questioning if war is the final answer. Many Colombians are hoping that rather than engage in warfare against the rebels, a strong central government will lay the ground-work for a peaceful solution to the conflict.
It seems Uribe has different ideas. Soon after winning elections, he announced that he would arm 15,000 villagers so that they could act as the first line of defence against guerrillas. He also insisted that he would clamp down on the brutal paramilitary groups as well, and did not preclude the possibility of negotiations with FARC under the auspices of the United Nations.
These strong actions by Uribe provoked an even stronger reaction by certain groups in the Colombian public. Human rights organisations protested the further militarisation of Colombian society. And the indigenous villagers protested the plan, claiming that they would be sitting ducks for the well organised FARC rebels. Most Colombians doubt Uribe's ability to fight both FARC and the paramilitary forces (who have been doing most of the dirty work for the government). FARC dismissed UN- brokered negotiations, saying their fight is not with the UN but with a government determined to escalate the conflict.
Add to this the cold-shoulder given Uribe's plans by neighbouring countries, and the increase in urban and rural violence, and it seems that an end to the conflict is nowhere in sight.
Can the government win?
The question may be irrelevant to those who believe a military solution is the only solution. War has a way of hardening attitudes. Harder attitudes make soldiers and their allies that much more powerful. Therefore, advocates of a negotiated solution become that much more marginal.
A long-lasting solution to the conflict depends on active involvement by Peru, Ecuador, and Brazil. All of these countries need US economic support to get themselves out of current economic crises. Yet these nations remain firm in their disdain for the US-launched "Colombia Plan". Neighbouring nations do not want to get involved to help solve this conflict and Uribe appears locked into a hardline battle strategy. It seems the Colombian people are caught between a rock and a hard place in a bloody cycle of civil warfare.
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