Issue No. 601
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29 August - 4 Sept. 2002 Issue No. 601 Region |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Strengthening neighbourly ties
An emerging rapprochement between Turkey and Iraq might be useful to both countries but, definitely, not to the US. Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara
Turkey and Iraq announced on Friday their agreement in principle to sign a wide-ranging trade and economic pact in defiance of Washington's efforts to isolate Baghdad in the run-up to the expected US military campaign to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein later this year.
The announcement came during a visit to Turkey by a high level Iraqi delegation led by Iraqi Trade Minister Mohamed Mehdi Saleh. Speaking on Friday after meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, Saleh declared that Ecevit had responded warmly to his suggestion that Ankara and Baghdad sign an economic cooperation pact similar to the $40 billion agreement recently signed between Iraq and Russia.
"This agreement will include all aspects of economic cooperation in the field of oil, extraction of oil, gas and refineries," Saleh said.
On Saturday Saleh was a guest speaker at a business conference in Istanbul organised by the Turkish Board for Foreign Economic Relations entitled "Business Opportunities in Iraq".
The prospect of closer economic ties between Turkey and Iraq will undoubtedly infuriate Washington, at a time when even the hawks in the US administration have begun to voice concern about the lack of international support for US President George Bush's plans to launch a military campaign against Iraq in November or December this year. Turkish military and logistical support, including the use of airfields in south-eastern Turkey and perhaps even the temporary deployment of Turkish troops in northern Iraq, is seen as vital to the success of US plans for a ground attack on Baghdad from the north.
Publicly, Turkish officials have consistently expressed their opposition to US plans for a military campaign to topple Saddam Hussein, fearful both of the impact on the Turkish economy and of the possibility of an autonomous or independent Kurdish region in northern Iraq -- a development they fear could fuel separatist sentiments amongst Turkey's own large, restive Kurdish minority. But after receiving over $30 billion in IMF loans to shore up its battered economy and facing regional isolation because of its close ties with Israel, Turkey privately admits it cannot afford to antagonise Washington. The Turkish military in particular is adamant that, once Washington formally asks for Turkish support, Ankara will have no choice but to comply.
However, there is still considerable public resentment of the price Turkey paid for supporting the US in the 1991 Gulf War. Prior to Operation Desert Storm, Iraq was one of Turkey's leading economic partners in the region. Bilateral trade averaged around $3 billion per year and Turkish contractors had secured a string of lucrative construction projects in Iraq. Turkish estimates for over a decade of economic losses as a result of the Gulf War range from $40 billion to as much as $100 billion.
In recent years Turkey has slowly rebuilt its economic ties with Iraq. A series of high profile Turkish trade delegations have visited Iraq and Turkish companies have once again become regular exhibitors at trade fairs in Baghdad.
"Our trade volume, which had all but stopped in 1990, has now reached a point of surpassing one billion dollars," said Turkish State Minister Edip Safter Gaydali.
On Friday Turkish Foreign Trade Minister Tunca Toskay commented: "A very serious relationship based on [mutual] trust has been developed with Iraq in the past three years."
There is no doubt that Turkish officials are aware that media reports of an economic rapprochement with Iraq generated by Saleh's visit to Turkey will improve their bargaining position in the early autumn when Turkish and US officials sit down to discuss what price Ankara can exact from Washington in return for supporting a military strike on Baghdad.
Turkey has never accepted the loss of the oil-rich areas of northern Iraq following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Recently Turkish nationalists have published a series of briefing papers on possible scenarios for Iraq after the toppling of Saddam Hussein, which foresee the establishment of a permanent Turkish military presence in northern Iraq to protect the country's tiny Turcoman minority, who would then be given control of the oil-producing areas. Given the disparity in strength between the Turkish military and the Iraqi Kurds, the result would be Turkish military and economic domination of the north of the country.
On Saturday, Saleh declared that discussions of an economic pact grew out of the close historical and cultural ties between Turkey and Iraq.
"Our head of state, Saddam Hussein, has always emphasised that Turkey is a sincere and reliable, friendly country. This is why we have launched these initiatives," he said.
Privately, Turkish officials admit they are playing both sides of the table. In recent discussions between Turkish and US officials about the possible payback for Turkish support for a US military campaign against Saddam, one of the demands put forward by the Turkish side was that Turkish contractors be given priority in construction contracts to rebuild Iraq after its demolition by US air strikes.
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